Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T08:11:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
56 0x5618…6ae9 crypto 1604 markets active 16h ago coverage 24d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 23d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (76 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$5,543 (-91%) realized −$5,548 · open +$5
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR64%break-even
Win rate64%1040W / 588L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day75.7pace
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$212now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 24d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 94% −$128
other 6% −$9
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (76 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +64%
net ROI/market (all)-12.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 303 -0.3% -9.8% 63% 63% -9.2%
≤30d 1628 -3.2% -12.5% 64% 64% -11.5%
≤90d 1628 -3.2% -12.5% 64% 64% -11.5%
all 1628 -3.2% -12.5% 64% 64% -11.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover75.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -12.5% 64% -11.5%
10% ← realistic here -20.8% 57% -20.0%
15% -28.5% 41% -27.7%
20% -35.5% 26% -34.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 0% · top 2 1% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$4 · ×0.51 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.91 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

24d coverage
Net worth$212
Realized−$5,548
Unrealized+$5
Win rate (resolved)64%
Wins / losses1040 / 588
Open positions2
Markets (closed)1628 / 1604
History coverage24d ⚠
Avg bet$4
Trades / day75.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 1628 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Solana Up or Down - May 20, 6AM ET Up 74¢ 100¢ $7 $10 +$3 (+35%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 6AM ET Up 76¢ 100¢ $8 $10 +$2 (+31%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 8 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on May 11? Jun 17 $22 +$7 +30%
Will the highest temperature in London be 12°C on May 10? Jun 17 $20 +$5 +25%
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 7°C on May 11? Jun 17 $20 +$4 +20%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 86-87°F on May 11? Jun 17 $13 +$3 +27%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 24°C on May 10? Jun 17 $10 +$5 +53%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 66-67°F on May 10? Jun 17 $10 +$4 +44%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C or higher on May 11? Jun 17 $10 +$3 +28%
Will the lowest temperature in London be 4°C on May 11? Jun 17 $9 +$4 +41%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 86-87°F on May 10? Jun 17 $10 +$2 +17%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 17°C on May 11? Jun 17 $10 +$2 +17%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on May 11? Jun 17 $8 +$6 +78%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on May 11? Jun 17 $5 +$6 +123%
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 76-77°F on May 10? Jun 17 $5 +$3 +60%
Will the highest temperature in London be 14°C on May 11? Jun 17 $4 +$4 +86%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on May 11? Jun 17 $3 +$1 +20%
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 74-75°F on May 11? Jun 17 $2 $0 +20%
BNB Up or Down - May 20, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Jun 17 $0 $0 +79%
XRP Up or Down - May 19, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 17 $0 $0 +23%
Will the lowest temperature in London be 5°C on May 11? Jun 17 $5 −$11 -200%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 14°C on May 11? Jun 17 $1 −$3 -200%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on May 11? Jun 17 $17 −$35 -200%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 23, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 13°C on May 10? Jun 17 $14 −$29 -200%
Will the highest temperature in London be 12°C on May 11? Jun 17 $15 −$31 -200%
BNB Up or Down - June 16, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 16 $3 +$2 +46%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 16 $3 +$3 +92%
BNB Up or Down - June 16, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 16 $3 +$2 +70%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$3 +51%
BNB Up or Down - June 16, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 16 $3 +$2 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
BNB Up or Down - June 16, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 16 $3 +$2 +61%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 16 $4 +$2 +57%
BNB Up or Down - June 16, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 16 $7 +$2 +33%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 16 $4 +$1 +42%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 16 $4 +$2 +59%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 16 $3 +$2 +47%
BNB Up or Down - June 16, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
BNB Up or Down - June 16, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $3 16h
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 69¢ $4 16h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $3 16h
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Down 67¢ $3 16h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Up 62¢ $3 16h
BNB Up or Down - June 16, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET BUY Up 72¢ $4 16h
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET BUY Up 61¢ $3 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $3 16h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET BUY Up 66¢ $3 16h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET BUY Up 64¢ $2 16h
BNB Up or Down - June 16, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Up 65¢ $2 17h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Up 59¢ $3 17h
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET BUY Up 33¢ $3 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $3 17h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $4 17h
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Up 58¢ $3 17h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Up 76¢ $4 17h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $4 17h
BNB Up or Down - June 16, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Up 62¢ $1 17h
BNB Up or Down - June 16, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Up 62¢ $2 17h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Up 69¢ $4 17h
BNB Up or Down - June 16, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Down 75¢ $4 17h
BNB Up or Down - June 16, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Down 74¢ $3 17h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Up 62¢ $4 17h
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Down 63¢ $4 17h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 69¢ $4 17h
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Down 36¢ $2 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET BUY Down 68¢ $3 17h
BNB Up or Down - June 16, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Down 79¢ $4 17h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET BUY Down 37¢ $2 17h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $212.40 · official $211.03 (match) · 3500 history records