Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T06:11:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
56 0x561c…8960 other 25 markets active 1h ago coverage 291d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$7 (-1%) realized −$7 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate17%4W / 20L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$27per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit64%portable
Net worth$10now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 26% −$3
other 23% −$4
crypto 19% $0
world 18% $0
sports 8% $0
finance 6% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-15.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +2.8% -7.0% 25% 25% -9.4%
≤30d 4 +2.8% -7.0% 25% 25% -9.4%
≤90d 4 +2.8% -7.0% 25% 25% -9.4%
all 24 -6.1% -15.1% 17% 4% -10.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.1% 4% -10.4%
10% -23.2% 0% -19.0%
15% -30.6% 0% -26.8%
20% -37.4% 0% -34.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 31% · top 2 61% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% too few recent
Fragile wins
75% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -11% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.21 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.08 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

291d coverage
Net worth$10
Realized−$7
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)17%
Wins / losses4 / 20
Open positions1
Markets (closed)24 / 25
History coverage291d
Avg bet$27
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit64%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 24 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? No 14¢ 14¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 14 $2 $0 +11%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 13 $42 $0 -0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $38 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 09 $14 $0 +0%
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Belarus? Sep 17 $1 −$1 -50%
Will Benfica win the 2025–26 Champions League? Sep 17 $29 $0 +0%
Will the Orlando Magic win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 17 $28 $0 +0%
Will the Washington Commanders win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 17 $4 −$1 -20%
Will Emmanuel Macron be the first leader out in 2025? Sep 16 $27 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum dip to $2800 in September? Sep 15 $27 $0 +0%
Will Native Markets win the USDH ticker? Sep 15 $3 −$2 -77%
Will Bitcoin dip to $85K in September? Sep 14 $31 $0 +0%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Sep 14 $31 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Elon Musk in 2025? Sep 13 $68 $0 +0%
Will the Minnesota Vikings win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 13 $33 $0 +0%
Will Andrew Cuomo win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Sep 08 $36 −$3 -8%
Will Vitinha win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Sep 02 $35 $0 -0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Sep 02 $35 $0 +0%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2025 World Series? Sep 02 $5 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 02 $4 $0 -4%
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa be the first leader out in 2025? Sep 02 $33 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $5200 in August? Aug 29 $35 $0 -0%
Israel x Iran ceasefire broken by August 31? Aug 28 $36 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $140 in August? Aug 28 $36 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 14¢ $10 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 13¢ $0 1h
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL Yes $2 9h
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY Yes $2 12h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 64¢ $2 2d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 64¢ $20 2d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 64¢ $20 2d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 64¢ $42 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 77¢ $34 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 79¢ $35 2d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $4 5d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $34 5d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $16 5d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $22 5d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 39¢ $14 5d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 39¢ $14 5d
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Belarus? SELL Yes $1 270d
Will Benfica win the 2025–26 Champions League? SELL No 99¢ $29 270d
Will Benfica win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY No 99¢ $29 270d
Will the Orlando Magic win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 97¢ $28 270d
Will the Washington Commanders win Super Bowl 2026? SELL Yes $1 271d
Will the Washington Commanders win Super Bowl 2026? SELL Yes $1 271d
Will the Orlando Magic win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 97¢ $28 272d
Will the Washington Commanders win Super Bowl 2026? SELL Yes $1 272d
Will Emmanuel Macron be the first leader out in 2025? SELL No 99¢ $27 272d
Will the Washington Commanders win Super Bowl 2026? SELL Yes $1 272d
Will Emmanuel Macron be the first leader out in 2025? BUY No 99¢ $27 272d
Will Ethereum dip to $2800 in September? SELL No 99¢ $27 272d
Will Ethereum dip to $2800 in September? BUY No 99¢ $27 273d
Will the Washington Commanders win Super Bowl 2026? BUY Yes $1 273d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $10.13 · official $10.13 (match) · 89 history records