Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T14:33:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
56 0x5623…0f7c crypto 56 markets active 1h ago coverage 2d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$2 (+1%) realized +$2 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -18% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -37% what you keep after slip
Net edge-37%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate47%23W / 26L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day45.5pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$8now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 83% −$3
other 13% +$2
sports 3% $0
world 2% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-25.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 49 -18.1% -25.9% 47% 41% -10.0%
≤30d 49 -18.1% -25.9% 47% 41% -10.0%
≤90d 49 -18.1% -25.9% 47% 41% -10.0%
all 49 -18.1% -25.9% 47% 41% -10.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover45.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -25.9% 41% -10.0%
10% ← realistic here -33.0% 29% -18.6%
15% -39.5% 14% -26.5%
20% -45.4% 10% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 30% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
13% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -18% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +14% → late -49% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×1.02 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.91 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$8
Realized+$2
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses23 / 26
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions7
Markets (closed)49 / 56
History coverage2d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day45.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 49 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Yes 67¢ 66¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox Atlanta Braves 53¢ 52¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 17¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-0%)
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Yes 69¢ 68¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Yes 18¢ 18¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-3%)
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Yes 13¢ 12¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-4%)
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Yes 13¢ 12¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 20 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$1 -26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 -19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -96%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $2 −$1 -40%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $1 $0 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 14 $17 +$2 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 14 $11 +$3 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 14 $14 +$2 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 14 $10 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 14 $1 +$4 +351%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Jun 14 $3 +$1 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $10 +$3 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Jun 14 $1 $0 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 14 $3 +$1 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +12%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox BUY Atlanta Braves 53¢ $1 1h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 69¢ $1 1h
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY Yes 18¢ $1 1h
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 1h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET SELL Down 70¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET BUY Down 67¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET SELL Down 92¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET SELL Down 85¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET SELL Down 44¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET BUY Down 28¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET BUY Up 24¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET SELL Down 15¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Down 12¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET SELL Up 88¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET SELL Down 20¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Down 20¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET SELL Up 54¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET BUY Up 82¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET BUY Up 84¢ $2 2h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET BUY Down 57¢ $1 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Up 26¢ $1 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET BUY Up 35¢ $1 11h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 30¢ $1 11h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 17¢ $1 11h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 11h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 35¢ $1 12h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $8.02 · official $8.02 (match) · 117 history records