Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T06:40:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
56 0x5624…6d4d crypto 142 markets active 10d ago coverage 1d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 1d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (2922 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable
Total PnL −$3,330 (-18%) realized −$3,330 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +72% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +32% what you keep after slip
Net edge+32%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate55%87W / 70L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$129per market
Trades / day2922.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$4now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (2922 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)+55.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 +574.9% +510.6% 40% 40% +21.8%
≤30d 157 +71.6% +55.3% 55% 34% -9.5%
≤90d 157 +71.6% +55.3% 55% 34% -9.5%
all 157 +71.6% +55.3% 55% 34% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2922.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +55.3% 34% -9.5%
10% ← realistic here +40.4% 20% -18.2%
15% +26.9% 11% -26.1%
20% +14.4% 8% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
38% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +72% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +31% → late +112% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
20.6 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$12 vs −$19 · ×0.65 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.8 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$4
Realized−$3,330
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses87 / 70
Open positions0
Markets (closed)157 / 142
History coverage1d ⚠
Avg bet$129
Trades / day2922.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 157 Trades
no open positions (16 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 29 $0 −$13 -2583%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 29 $1 −$4 -681%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 29 $1 −$18 -2760%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 29 $1 −$72 -14060%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 29 $0 −$48 -9943%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 29 $0 −$22 -5923%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 29 $0 −$100 -85310%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 29 $0 +$1 +619%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 29 $0 +$17 +23166%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 29 $0 −$41 -16766%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 29 $0 +$51 +2040124%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 29 $0 +$4 +14302%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 29 $0 +$1 +904%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 29 $0 +$16 +22034%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 29 $1 −$43 -5105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 19 $9 −$5 -54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 19 $69 +$2 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 19 $81 +$6 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 19 $203 −$21 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 19 $204 −$16 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 19 $174 −$43 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 19 $90 −$3 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 19 $326 +$8 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 19 $202 −$6 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 19 $40 +$13 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 19 $485 +$15 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 19 $200 −$40 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 19 $55 +$20 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 19 $97 +$17 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 19 $115 +$13 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 19 $203 +$36 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 19 $281 −$48 -17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 19 $114 +$3 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 19 $83 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 19 $183 −$7 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 19 $167 +$3 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 19 $67 +$8 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 19 $174 −$19 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 19 $104 +$20 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 19 $38 +$6 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 19 $119 −$11 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 19 $31 +$8 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 19 $77 +$10 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 19 $67 +$9 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 19 $56 +$5 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 19 $224 −$34 -15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 19 $284 −$18 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 19 $313 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 19 $87 +$20 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 19 $149 +$23 +16%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $7 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $2 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $1 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $5 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $1 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Down 15¢ $3 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $12 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $19 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $19 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $8 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Up 79¢ $16 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Down 23¢ $2 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Down 23¢ $0 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Up 79¢ $21 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Down 25¢ $6 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Down 25¢ $4 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $9 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $6 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $3 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $3 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $11 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $5 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $5 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Up 3¢ $0 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Up 2¢ $0 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Up 2¢ $0 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $5 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $5 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $5 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Down 93¢ $14 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4.03 · official $0.00 · 3500 history records