Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T15:31:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
56 0x5625…f8c5 other 40 markets active 1h ago coverage 12d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$143 (-1%) realized −$85 · open −$58
Gross ROI / mkt -48% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -55% what you keep after slip
Net edge-55%after slip
Net WR23%break-even
Win rate23%3W / 10L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$268per market
Trades / day4.1pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit10%portable
Net worth$10,267now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$5
7 days−$23
14 days−$83
30 days−$83
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 98% −$132
crypto 1% $0
sports 0% −$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +23%
net ROI/market (all)-52.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +12.7% +2.0% 50% 50% -37.4%
≤30d 13 -48.0% -52.9% 23% 23% -65.3%
≤90d 13 -48.0% -52.9% 23% 23% -65.3%
all 13 -48.0% -52.9% 23% 23% -65.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -52.9% 23% -65.3%
10% -57.4% 23% -68.7%
15% -61.6% 23% -71.7%
20% -65.3% 15% -74.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 47% · top 2 79% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -62% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -48% · $-wt -62% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -100% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$10 · ×0.69 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.21 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

12d coverage
Net worth$10,267
Realized−$85
Unrealized−$58
Win rate (resolved)23%
Wins / losses3 / 10
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions27
Markets (closed)13 / 40
History coverage12d
Avg bet$268
Trades / day4.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit10%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 27 History 13 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 18¢ $2,045 $2,343 +$298 (+15%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $1,997 $1,896 −$101 (-5%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $1,881 $1,890 +$9 (+0%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 12¢ $1,500 $1,683 +$183 (+12%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 13¢ $1,989 $1,611 −$378 (-19%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $500 $441 −$59 (-12%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $140 $137 −$3 (-2%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $125 $124 −$1 (-1%)
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Yes 44¢ 48¢ $11 $12 +$1 (+9%)
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-25? Yes 67¢ 74¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+11%)
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? Yes 66¢ 69¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+5%)
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Yes 14¢ 13¢ $11 $11 −$0 (-4%)
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Yes 53¢ 54¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+2%)
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Yes 80¢ 80¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-0%)
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Yes 70¢ 68¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Yes 68¢ 66¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Yes 65¢ 64¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Yes 54¢ 48¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-12%)
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Yes 47¢ 40¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-14%)
Will Uzbekistan advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 67¢ 69¢ $7 $7 +$0 (+4%)
Will Cape Verde advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 70¢ 57¢ $7 $6 −$1 (-18%)
Will Saudi Arabia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 64¢ 57¢ $6 $6 −$1 (-10%)
Will Harry Kane be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 15¢ 12¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-23%)
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup? No 29¢ 28¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-2%)
Will George Russell be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Yes 25¢ 15¢ $4 $2 −$2 (-40%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 8 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $10 +$5 +46%
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? Jun 14 $4 +$7 +184%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $19 −$15 -81%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-10? Jun 10 $9 +$10 +114%
Will Charles Leclerc finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Jun 10 $27 −$24 -87%
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 Nigeria? Jun 10 $6 −$6 -98%
Will George Russell win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? Jun 06 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? Jun 06 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Max Verstappen finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand P Jun 05 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Lewis Hamilton win the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix? Jun 05 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Lewis Hamilton get pole position at the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix Jun 05 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 05 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 05 $10 −$10 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $129 1h
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $129 1h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 12¢ $1,027 1h
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $15 9h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 14¢ $18 41h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $514 41h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $514 41h
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY Yes 14¢ $11 44h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $1,932 44h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $1,996 44h
Will George Russell be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY Yes 25¢ $4 3d
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $2 3d
Will Harry Kane be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 15¢ $5 3d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 49¢ $1 3d
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? BUY Yes 34¢ $4 6d
Spurs vs. Knicks SELL Knicks 11¢ $4 6d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 55¢ $19 6d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-10? BUY Yes 46¢ $9 6d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $1,665 6d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $1,733 6d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $54 6d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $363 6d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $355 6d
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 Nigeria? BUY Yes 14¢ $6 6d
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup? BUY No 29¢ $3 8d
Will Morocco advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup BUY No 14¢ $3 8d
Will Cape Verde advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World BUY No 70¢ $7 8d
Will Uzbekistan advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World BUY No 67¢ $7 8d
Will Saudi Arabia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA Worl BUY No 64¢ $6 8d
Will Charles Leclerc finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand BUY No 56¢ $2 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $10,267.06 · official $10,267.06 (match) · 60 history records