Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T22:38:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

56
0x5625…aec3
world · 56 markets active 2h ago
0.0score
−$3 -0%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$3 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
~ RISKY Fresh edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$43
Realized−$3
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses20 / 35
Est. fees paid−$9
Open positions1
Markets (closed)55 / 56
History coverage514d
Avg bet$52
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit77%
Chart Positions 1 History 55 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$4
7 days−$1
14 days+$1
30 days+$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? No 86¢ 86¢ $43 $43 +$0 (+0%)
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? Yes 7¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 11 $46 −$4 -8%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? Jun 10 $42 $0 -0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 09 $30 $0 +0%
Iran Nuke before 2027? Jun 08 $39 $0 -0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 07 $24 +$3 +12%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 07 $94 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 07 $84 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 07 $79 −$1 -2%
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? Jun 06 $26 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 06 $43 +$1 +2%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 05 $7 $0 +5%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 05 $48 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? May 30 $82 +$3 +4%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 30 $46 −$1 -1%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 29 $3 +$1 +30%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? May 28 $37 $0 -0%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 28 $51 +$1 +1%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 27 $1 $0 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? May 26 $21 $0 -2%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 25 $179 $0 -0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 25 $46 $0 +0%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? May 21 $1 $0 -21%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 19 $42 $0 +0%
Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamen May 18 $116 +$1 +1%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 17 $41 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Donetsk Oblast by June 30, 2026? May 15 $44 $0 +0%
Greece x Turkey military engagement by June 30? May 14 $5 −$1 -19%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 27 $22 $0 +0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 26 $35 $0 +0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 26 $298 $0 +0%
Starmer out by April 30, 2026? Apr 26 $101 $0 -0%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 25 $4 −$1 -18%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Apr 25 $46 $0 +0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 25 $271 $0 +0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 24 $272 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 24 $13 $0 +4%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Apr 23 $42 +$2 +4%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 23 $270 $0 +0%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 23 $162 $0 +0%
Will the Arizona Diamondbacks win the 2025 World Series? Dec 10 $2 $0 +4%
Will Putin meet with Zelenskyy before July? Dec 10 $0 $0 -100%
Will Ryan Reynolds attend the Oscars? Mar 20 $4 −$1 -29%
Will Bitcoin hit $90,000 by Wednesday? Mar 02 $5 −$2 -30%
Hawks vs. Heat Feb 26 $5 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be between 49-50°F on February Feb 26 $5 $0 -3%
Penn State vs. Indiana Feb 26 $5 $0 +0%
Raptors vs. Pacers Feb 26 $5 $0 +0%
Appalachian State vs. Georgia Southern Feb 25 $6 $0 -2%
Will Florida win the 2025 NCAA Tournament? Feb 25 $5 $0 -3%
Will another individual win the Romanian Presidential election? Feb 18 $6 −$1 -12%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
world 42% +$3
sports 31% +$4
other 15% −$7
politics 9% −$1
finance 2% +$1
weather 0% −$1
crypto 0% −$2
culture 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 86¢ $43 1h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 33¢ $36 44h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 33¢ $6 44h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 36¢ $46 45h
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? SELL No 81¢ $42 2d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? BUY No 81¢ $36 2d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? BUY No 81¢ $6 2d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 55¢ $30 3d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 55¢ $30 3d
Iran Nuke before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $12 4d
Iran Nuke before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $27 4d
Iran Nuke before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $39 4d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 67¢ $6 5d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 28¢ $3 5d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $42 5d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $42 5d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 47¢ $23 5d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 47¢ $17 5d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 47¢ $23 5d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 47¢ $17 5d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL No 74¢ $44 5d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY No 75¢ $44 5d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL No 50¢ $29 6d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL No 50¢ $15 6d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY No 50¢ $44 6d
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? SELL No 91¢ $26 6d
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? BUY No 91¢ $26 6d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 56¢ $0 6d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 56¢ $2 6d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 56¢ $42 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +9%
net ROI/market (all)+26.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 +0.4% -9.2% 30% 10% -9.8%
≤30d 27 +88.3% +70.4% 44% 11% -9.4%
≤90d 39 +60.9% +45.6% 41% 8% -9.4%
all 55 +40.2% +26.8% 36% 9% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +26.8% 9% -9.6%
10% +14.7% 5% -18.3%
15% +3.6% 5% -26.2%
20% -6.6% 5% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $42.77 · official $42.77 (match) · 217 history records