Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T03:39:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

56
0x5627…3832
crypto · 1405 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$134 -3%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$134 · open +$1
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$4
Realized−$134
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses759 / 644
Open positions1
Markets (closed)1403 / 1405
History coverage180d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day15.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 1 History 1403 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$19
7 days−$2
14 days+$2
30 days−$29
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Down 36¢ 42¢ $3 $4 +$1 (+18%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Up 72¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Down 40¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Up 40¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Down 71¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Up 26¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Down 42¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Down 55¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Up 65¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Down 31¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Down 62¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Down 24¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Down 57¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Down 47¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Down 34¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Up 49¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Up 50¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Up 22¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Down 31¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Down 24¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Down 45¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Down 61¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Up 15¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Up 37¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Down 45¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 13 $4 +$1 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 13 $4 +$2 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 13 $4 −$1 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 13 $4 −$1 -29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 13 $4 +$1 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 13 $4 −$1 -25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 13 $4 +$2 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 13 $4 −$1 -39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 13 $4 −$4 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 13 $4 +$2 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 13 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 13 $4 −$2 -56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 13 $3 +$2 +53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 13 $4 +$1 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 13 $4 +$1 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 13 $4 −$1 -30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 13 $3 $0 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 13 $3 −$2 -59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 13 $4 +$2 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 13 $3 −$1 -44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 13 $3 +$1 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 13 $3 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 13 $4 −$2 -63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 12 $3 +$1 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 12 $4 +$2 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 12 $4 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 12 $4 +$1 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 12 $4 +$1 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 12 $3 +$2 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 12 $3 +$1 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 12 $4 −$4 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 12 $3 −$2 -64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 12 $3 $0 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 12 $4 −$3 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 12 $4 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 12 $4 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 12 $4 +$2 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 12 $4 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 12 $3 +$3 +82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 12 $4 +$1 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 12 $4 +$3 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 12 $4 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 12 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 12 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 12 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 12 $3 +$2 +64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 12 $4 +$1 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 12 $4 $0 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 12 $3 +$3 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 12 $4 −$4 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 99% −$121
other 1% −$11
tech 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET BUY Down 36¢ $3 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET SELL Down 77¢ $5 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET BUY Down 58¢ $4 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET SELL Down 95¢ $6 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET BUY Down 63¢ $4 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET SELL Up 51¢ $3 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $4 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET SELL Down 40¢ $3 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $4 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET SELL Down 58¢ $5 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET BUY Down 39¢ $4 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET SELL Down 51¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET BUY Down 64¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET BUY Down 61¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET SELL Up 21¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET BUY Up 31¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET BUY Down 60¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET BUY Up 69¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET SELL Up 26¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET BUY Up 58¢ $4 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET SELL Up 79¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET SELL Up 82¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET BUY Up 65¢ $4 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET SELL Down 82¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET BUY Down 64¢ $4 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET SELL Down 42¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET SELL Down 42¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET SELL Down 42¢ $0 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +49%
net ROI/market (all)-8.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 334 +1.2% -8.4% 54% 50% -9.7%
≤30d 678 +7.1% -3.1% 54% 50% -10.3%
≤90d 1198 +2.4% -7.3% 53% 48% -11.7%
all 1403 +1.1% -8.5% 54% 49% -12.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover15.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.5% 49% -12.1%
10% -17.3% 40% -20.5%
15% -25.3% 29% -28.2%
20% -32.6% 18% -35.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3.78 · official $4.40 (match) · 3163 history records