Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T19:01:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
56 0x5627…a899 crypto 14 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$13 (-38%) realized −$12 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate46%6W / 7L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day16.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$13
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-6.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 +3.5% -6.4% 46% 46% -42.9%
≤30d 13 +3.5% -6.4% 46% 46% -42.9%
≤90d 13 +3.5% -6.4% 46% 46% -42.9%
all 13 +3.5% -6.4% 46% 46% -42.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover16.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.4% 46% -42.9%
10% -15.3% 46% -48.4%
15% -23.5% 38% -53.3%
20% -31.0% 38% -57.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 40% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -37% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt -37% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +44% → late -31% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$3 · ×0.47 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.4 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$12
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses6 / 7
Open positions1
Markets (closed)13 / 14
History coverage1d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day16.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 13 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Up 44¢ 2¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-97%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +110%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$1 -30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +129%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 16 $1 +$2 +173%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +140%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 16 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 16 $6 +$1 +23%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.03 · official $0.44 (match) · 29 history records