Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T15:34:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

56
0x5629…7ad0
crypto · 20 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$11 -2%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$9 · open −$2
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$11
Realized−$9
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)32%
Wins / losses6 / 13
Open positions1
Markets (closed)19 / 20
History coverage1d
Avg bet$37
Trades / day136.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 1 History 19 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$9
7 days−$9
14 days−$9
30 days−$9
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Down 54¢ 72¢ $6 $8 +$2 (+34%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Up 44¢ 28¢ $5 $3 −$2 (-38%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 12 $64 −$2 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 12 $60 −$1 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 12 $56 −$2 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 12 $23 −$1 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 12 $22 −$1 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 12 $23 −$1 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 12 $63 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 12 $8 +$3 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 12 $65 −$2 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 12 $11 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 12 $66 −$2 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 12 $56 −$1 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 12 $22 −$1 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 12 $42 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 12 $42 −$1 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 12 $45 −$1 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 12 $21 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 12 $21 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 12 $10 $0 +4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 100% −$11
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $5 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $6 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $5 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $6 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $6 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $6 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $5 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $6 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $5 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $5 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $5 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $6 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Down 44¢ $5 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $6 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $3 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $3 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $5 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $6 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Up 42¢ $5 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $6 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $5 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $5 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $5 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $6 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $6 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $6 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $5 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $6 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $5 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $6 19m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-9.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 19 +0.6% -9.0% 32% 5% -10.7%
≤30d 19 +0.6% -9.0% 32% 5% -10.7%
≤90d 19 +0.6% -9.0% 32% 5% -10.7%
all 19 +0.6% -9.0% 32% 5% -10.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover136.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.0% 5% -10.7%
10% ← realistic here -17.7% 5% -19.2%
15% -25.6% 0% -27.0%
20% -32.9% 0% -34.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $10.81 · official $10.85 (match) · 155 history records