Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T09:45:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
56 0x562f…e46f sports 356 markets active 6h ago coverage 27d
BOTnot copyable sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 26d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (119 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$6,429 (-1%) realized −$6,429 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -31% what you keep after slip
Net edge-31%after slip
Net WR1%break-even
Win rate96%343W / 13L
Whale WR96%big bets
Drawdown16%max
Avg bet$2,805per market
Trades / day118.9pace
Fees−$175est.
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 27d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 45% +$1,478
sports 36% +$1,485
crypto 18% +$305
politics 1% +$2
tech 1% +$6
finance 0% +$8
world 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (119 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-9.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 80 -1.1% -10.6% 95% 1% -9.2%
≤30d 356 -0.3% -9.8% 96% 1% -9.2%
≤90d 356 -0.3% -9.8% 96% 1% -9.2%
all 356 -0.3% -9.8% 96% 1% -9.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover118.9 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.8% 1% -9.2%
10% -18.5% 1% -17.9%
15% ← realistic here -26.3% 1% -25.8%
20% -33.6% 1% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 16% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
99% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 96% (≥$2,717) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +0% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
6.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$12 vs −$62 · ×0.19 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×5.05 per $1 lost it wins $5.05
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

27d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$6,429
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)96%
Wins / losses343 / 13
Whale WR (big bets)96%
Est. fees paid−$175
Open positions0
Markets (closed)356 / 356
History coverage27d ⚠
Avg bet$2,805
Trades / day118.9
Drawdown16%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 356 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Paraguay leading at halftime? Jun 20 $11,137 +$112 +1%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 0.5 Jun 20 $1,262 +$13 +1%
Türkiye leading at halftime? Jun 20 $11,675 +$49 +0%
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) Jun 20 $24,203 +$61 +0%
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? Jun 19 $9,651 +$23 +0%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 3.5 Jun 19 $36 $0 +1%
Australia leading at halftime? Jun 19 $670 +$5 +1%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $14,436 +$162 +1%
Spread: United States (-1.5) Jun 19 $5,093 +$5 +0%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $37,115 +$57 +0%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 0.5 Jun 19 $12,029 +$9 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 19? Jun 19 $11,976 +$24 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 on June 18? Jun 19 $84 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 on June 18? Jun 19 $1 $0 +0%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 4.5 Jun 19 $527 −$527 -100%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $4,438 +$9 +0%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 18 $7,258 +$73 +1%
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 18 $937 +$2 +0%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $192 +$1 +1%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $125 +$1 +1%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 5.5 Jun 18 $58 $0 +0%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score in First H Jun 18 $2,041 +$20 +1%
Spread: Switzerland (-3.5) Jun 18 $1,249 +$10 +1%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $8,169 +$24 +0%
Czechia vs. South Africa: Czechia O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $10,643 +$107 +1%
Spread: South Africa (-1.5) Jun 18 $1,602 +$8 +0%
Czechia vs. South Africa: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $12,054 +$12 +0%
Czechia leading at halftime? Jun 18 $209 +$2 +1%
South Africa leading at halftime? Jun 18 $207 +$1 +0%
Czechia vs. South Africa: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $11,822 +$107 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 18? Jun 18 $299 +$1 +0%
Spread: Uzbekistan (-1.5) Jun 18 $422 +$3 +1%
Uzbekistan leading at halftime? Jun 18 $96 +$4 +4%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $7,922 +$80 +1%
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $17,677 +$53 +0%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $11,856 +$120 +1%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $2,207 +$25 +1%
Spread: DR Congo (-1.5) Jun 17 $4,012 +$20 +0%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $7,757 +$45 +1%
DR Congo leading at halftime? Jun 17 $3,984 +$38 +1%
Portugal to score first vs. DR Congo? Jun 17 $1 $0 +1%
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan Jun 17 $11,719 −$5 -0%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $1,729 +$18 +1%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $10,824 +$84 +1%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 17 $1,664 +$3 +0%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $12,844 +$36 +0%
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 17 $12 $0 +1%
Austria vs. Jordan: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $1,900 +$17 +1%
Austria vs. Jordan: Jordan O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $547 +$5 +1%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $15,759 +$30 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Paraguay leading at halftime? BUY Yes 99¢ $4,800 5h
Paraguay leading at halftime? BUY Yes 99¢ $4,950 5h
Paraguay leading at halftime? BUY Yes 99¢ $1,386 5h
Türkiye leading at halftime? SELL No 100¢ $4,291 5h
Türkiye leading at halftime? SELL No 100¢ $6,382 5h
Türkiye leading at halftime? SELL No 100¢ $453 5h
Türkiye leading at halftime? SELL No 100¢ $14 5h
Türkiye leading at halftime? BUY No 100¢ $4,279 5h
Türkiye leading at halftime? BUY No 100¢ $3,170 5h
Türkiye leading at halftime? BUY No 100¢ $181 5h
Türkiye leading at halftime? BUY No 100¢ $181 5h
Türkiye leading at halftime? BUY No 100¢ $181 5h
Türkiye leading at halftime? BUY No 100¢ $29 5h
Türkiye leading at halftime? BUY No 100¢ $1,791 6h
Türkiye leading at halftime? BUY No 99¢ $1,238 6h
Türkiye leading at halftime? BUY No 99¢ $31 6h
Türkiye leading at halftime? BUY No 99¢ $23 6h
Türkiye leading at halftime? SELL No 95¢ $1 6h
Türkiye leading at halftime? SELL No 95¢ $72 6h
Türkiye leading at halftime? SELL No 95¢ $58 6h
Türkiye leading at halftime? SELL No 95¢ $7 6h
Türkiye leading at halftime? BUY No 94¢ $137 6h
Türkiye leading at halftime? SELL No 89¢ $423 6h
Türkiye leading at halftime? SELL No 89¢ $1 6h
Türkiye leading at halftime? SELL No 89¢ $21 6h
Türkiye leading at halftime? BUY No 87¢ $10 6h
Türkiye leading at halftime? BUY No 87¢ $415 6h
Türkiye leading at halftime? BUY No 87¢ $9 6h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 99¢ $1,262 6h
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) BUY Brazil 100¢ $10,449 7h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records