Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T02:03:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
56 0x5630…7574 sports 20 markets active 2h ago coverage 1d
BOTnot copyable sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ bot/MM pace (119 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$16 (+0%) realized −$171 · open +$187
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate47%9W / 10L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$186per market
Trades / day119.0pace
Fees−$59est.
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$1,470now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% −$163
other 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (119 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-14.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 19 -5.9% -14.9% 47% 47% -22.7%
≤30d 19 -5.9% -14.9% 47% 47% -22.7%
≤90d 19 -5.9% -14.9% 47% 47% -22.7%
all 19 -5.9% -14.9% 47% 47% -22.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover119.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -14.9% 47% -22.7%
10% ← realistic here -23.0% 37% -30.1%
15% -30.5% 37% -36.8%
20% -37.3% 26% -43.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 29% · top 2 58% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -14% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -42% → late +27% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
6.0 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$91 vs −$116 · ×0.78 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.7 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$1,470
Realized−$171
Unrealized+$187
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses9 / 10
Est. fees paid−$59
Open positions1
Markets (closed)19 / 20
History coverage1d
Avg bet$186
Trades / day119.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 19 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
New York Yankees vs. Boston Red Sox Boston Red Sox 54¢ 62¢ $1,283 $1,470 +$187 (+15%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 8 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Atlanta Braves vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 6.5 Jun 28 $91 +$39 +43%
Atlanta Braves vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 28 $178 +$154 +87%
Athletics vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 28 $36 +$5 +14%
Chicago Cubs vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 28 $231 +$234 +101%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. San Diego Padres Jun 28 $1,011 −$989 -98%
Houston Astros vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 28 $116 +$235 +204%
Kansas City Royals vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 28 $160 +$73 +46%
Seattle Mariners vs. Cleveland Guardians Jun 28 $280 −$64 -23%
Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-2.5) Jun 28 $51 −$51 -100%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. New York Mets Jun 28 $143 −$4 -2%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-28? Jun 28 $1 $0 +17%
Colorado Rockies vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 9.5 Jun 28 $11 +$11 +100%
Washington Nationals vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 28 $62 +$62 +101%
Spread: Seattle Mariners (-1.5) Jun 28 $8 −$8 -100%
Texas Rangers vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 28 $6 −$6 -100%
South Africa vs. Canada: O/U 5.5 Jun 28 $7 −$7 -100%
South Africa vs. Canada: O/U 4.5 Jun 28 $11 −$11 -100%
South Africa vs. Canada: O/U 3.5 Jun 28 $8 −$8 -100%
Spread: Detroit Tigers (-1.5) Jun 28 $17 −$17 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
New York Yankees vs. Boston Red Sox BUY Boston Red Sox 79¢ $15 1h
New York Yankees vs. Boston Red Sox BUY Boston Red Sox 79¢ $109 1h
New York Yankees vs. Boston Red Sox BUY Boston Red Sox 53¢ $199 1h
New York Yankees vs. Boston Red Sox BUY Boston Red Sox 50¢ $12 1h
New York Yankees vs. Boston Red Sox BUY Boston Red Sox 51¢ $63 2h
New York Yankees vs. Boston Red Sox BUY Boston Red Sox 51¢ $1 2h
New York Yankees vs. Boston Red Sox BUY Boston Red Sox 51¢ $1 2h
New York Yankees vs. Boston Red Sox BUY Boston Red Sox 51¢ $5 2h
New York Yankees vs. Boston Red Sox BUY Boston Red Sox 51¢ $10 2h
New York Yankees vs. Boston Red Sox BUY Boston Red Sox 51¢ $1 2h
New York Yankees vs. Boston Red Sox BUY Boston Red Sox 51¢ $45 2h
New York Yankees vs. Boston Red Sox BUY Boston Red Sox 51¢ $5 2h
New York Yankees vs. Boston Red Sox BUY Boston Red Sox 51¢ $1 2h
New York Yankees vs. Boston Red Sox BUY Boston Red Sox 51¢ $13 2h
New York Yankees vs. Boston Red Sox BUY Boston Red Sox 51¢ $1 2h
New York Yankees vs. Boston Red Sox BUY Boston Red Sox 51¢ $10 2h
New York Yankees vs. Boston Red Sox BUY Boston Red Sox 51¢ $10 2h
New York Yankees vs. Boston Red Sox BUY Boston Red Sox 51¢ $10 2h
New York Yankees vs. Boston Red Sox BUY Boston Red Sox 51¢ $1 2h
New York Yankees vs. Boston Red Sox BUY Boston Red Sox 51¢ $17 2h
New York Yankees vs. Boston Red Sox BUY Boston Red Sox 50¢ $48 2h
New York Yankees vs. Boston Red Sox BUY Boston Red Sox 52¢ $0 2h
New York Yankees vs. Boston Red Sox BUY Boston Red Sox 52¢ $2 2h
New York Yankees vs. Boston Red Sox BUY Boston Red Sox 52¢ $2 2h
New York Yankees vs. Boston Red Sox BUY Boston Red Sox 52¢ $2 2h
New York Yankees vs. Boston Red Sox BUY Boston Red Sox 52¢ $2 2h
New York Yankees vs. Boston Red Sox BUY Boston Red Sox 52¢ $2 2h
New York Yankees vs. Boston Red Sox BUY Boston Red Sox 52¢ $2 2h
New York Yankees vs. Boston Red Sox BUY Boston Red Sox 52¢ $2 2h
New York Yankees vs. Boston Red Sox BUY Boston Red Sox 52¢ $2 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,470.12 · official $1,470.12 (match) · 131 history records