Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T02:23:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
56 0x5630…6ca8 sports 242 markets active 0h ago coverage 247d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$1,168 (+1%) realized +$1,195 · open −$27
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate58%138W / 98L
Whale WR74%big bets
Drawdown85%max
Avg bet$378per market
Trades / day6.6pace
Fees−$702est.
Kalshi-fit89%portable
Net worth$215now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$210
7 days+$21
14 days−$415
30 days−$482
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 95% +$401
other 3% +$284
world 1% −$59
crypto 1% −$158
politics 0% +$134
tech 0% −$10
finance 0% +$14
economics 0% +$16
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-9.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 25 -13.6% -21.9% 60% 56% -8.8%
≤30d 44 +1.8% -7.9% 55% 48% -21.3%
≤90d 154 +3.1% -6.7% 57% 47% -10.4%
all 236 -0.4% -9.9% 58% 44% -8.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.9% 44% -8.9%
10% -18.5% 26% -17.6%
15% -26.4% 17% -25.6%
20% -33.6% 11% -32.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
22% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 74% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -3% → late +2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
4.7 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$81 vs −$108 · ×0.75 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.06 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

247d coverage
Net worth$215
Realized+$1,195
Unrealized−$27
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses138 / 98
Whale WR (big bets)74%
Est. fees paid−$702
Open positions2
Markets (closed)236 / 242
History coverage247d
Avg bet$378
Trades / day6.6
Drawdown85%
Kalshi-fit89%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 236 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 1.5 Over 72¢ 72¢ $168 $168 +$0 (+0%)
Major League Cricket: Texas Super Kings vs Mi New York Mi New York 77¢ 48¢ $74 $47 −$27 (-37%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Spain O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $263 +$45 +17%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: South Africa vs India Jun 21 $15 +$2 +15%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: West Indies vs Sri Lanka Jun 21 $40 +$14 +34%
T20 Series Bangladesh vs. Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia Jun 21 $105 +$15 +14%
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $107 +$28 +27%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $171 +$32 +18%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $159 +$32 +20%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Pakistan vs Bangladesh Jun 20 $49 −$13 -27%
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan Jun 20 $279 +$32 +11%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $116 +$25 +21%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $89 +$27 +31%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $231 −$143 -62%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $175 +$57 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 18 $104 −$54 -52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 18 $126 −$1 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 18 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 18 $31 −$10 -32%
Kwibuka T20 Tournament, Women: Rwanda vs Brazil Jun 18 $310 −$21 -7%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: South Africa vs Pakistan Jun 18 $50 +$11 +21%
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan Jun 17 $100 +$13 +12%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: New Zealand vs Sri Lanka Jun 16 $150 +$15 +10%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $62 −$62 -99%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $6 −$6 -99%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5 Jun 15 $4 −$3 -98%
T20 Series West Indies vs Sri lanka: West Indies vs Sri Lanka Jun 15 $76 +$14 +18%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $1 +$6 +588%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: India vs Pakistan Jun 14 $14 +$1 +10%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Bangladesh vs Netherlands Jun 14 $36 +$4 +10%
T20 Series West Indies vs Sri lanka: West Indies vs Sri Lanka Jun 14 $56 +$6 +11%
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan Jun 13 $115 −$3 -2%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $115 −$115 -100%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Australia vs South Africa Jun 13 $57 +$14 +24%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Scotland vs Ireland Jun 13 $10 −$10 -98%
United States vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $51 −$1 -2%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $2 $0 +23%
T20 Ireland Tri-Series, Women: Ireland vs West Indies Jun 12 $60 −$34 -57%
T20 Series Bangladesh vs Sri Lanka, Women: Bangladesh vs Sri Lanka Jun 12 $98 −$37 -38%
Colorado Rockies vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 12 $115 −$115 -100%
Indian Premier League: Gujarat Titans vs Sunrisers Hyderabad Jun 12 $167 −$167 -100%
T20 Series West Indies vs Sri lanka: West Indies vs Sri Lanka Jun 12 $12 +$6 +51%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $10 +$4 +44%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $2 +$4 +203%
ODI Series West Indies vs Sri Lanka: West Indies vs Sri Lanka Jun 09 $2 $0 -12%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $217 −$66 -31%
Indian Premier League: Punjab Kings vs Delhi Capitals May 11 $32 +$68 +216%
ODI Series England vs. New Zealand, Women: England vs New Zealand May 10 $1,252 −$816 -65%
Indian Premier League: Chennai Super Kings vs Lucknow Super Giants May 10 $643 +$123 +19%
Indian Premier League: Royal Challengers Bangalore vs Mumbai Indians May 10 $214 −$115 -54%
Indian Premier League: Rajasthan Royals vs Gujarat Titans May 09 $373 +$64 +17%
Indian Premier League: Delhi Capitals vs Kolkata Knight Riders May 08 $487 +$19 +4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Major League Cricket: Texas Super Kings vs Mi New York BUY Mi New York 82¢ $40 14m
Major League Cricket: Texas Super Kings vs Mi New York BUY Mi New York 72¢ $10 22m
Major League Cricket: Texas Super Kings vs Mi New York BUY Mi New York 76¢ $4 36m
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 84¢ $18 39m
Major League Cricket: Texas Super Kings vs Mi New York BUY Mi New York 69¢ $20 57m
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 70¢ $50 1h
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 72¢ $101 1h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: South Africa vs India SELL India 70¢ $17 10h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Spain O/U 1.5 BUY Over 85¢ $263 10h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: South Africa vs India BUY India 47¢ $5 11h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: South Africa vs India BUY India 69¢ $10 12h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: West Indies vs Sri Lanka BUY West Indies 74¢ $40 16h
T20 Series Bangladesh vs. Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia BUY Australia 92¢ $55 17h
T20 Series Bangladesh vs. Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia BUY Australia 83¢ $50 18h
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 92¢ $23 22h
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 92¢ $8 22h
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 74¢ $25 22h
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 74¢ $50 22h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 84¢ $171 31h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 83¢ $159 34h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Pakistan vs Bangladesh SELL Pakistan 61¢ $35 34h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Pakistan vs Bangladesh BUY Pakistan 87¢ $19 34h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Pakistan vs Bangladesh BUY Pakistan 65¢ $5 35h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Pakistan vs Bangladesh BUY Pakistan 84¢ $15 35h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Pakistan vs Bangladesh BUY Pakistan 84¢ $10 35h
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan SELL India 100¢ $311 37h
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan BUY India 85¢ $50 39h
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan BUY India 88¢ $89 39h
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan BUY India 94¢ $73 41h
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan BUY India 89¢ $67 42h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $214.78 · official $214.78 (match) · 1755 history records