Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T10:14:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
56 0x5631…2007 politics 177 markets active 1h ago coverage 146d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$1,398 (-1%) realized −$1,397 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR9%break-even
Win rate23%41W / 134L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,329per market
Trades / day3.1pace
Fees−$33est.
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$926now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days−$20
14 days−$56
30 days−$268
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 42% −$124
other 37% −$201
sports 13% −$1,091
world 4% −$43
economics 2% −$5
culture 1% −$3
tech 1% −$1
crypto 0% +$1
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +9%
net ROI/market (all)-9.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 51 -5.1% -14.2% 8% 2% -9.8%
≤90d 91 -3.0% -12.2% 9% 4% -10.6%
all 175 +0.2% -9.4% 23% 9% -10.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.4% 9% -10.1%
10% -18.0% 9% -18.7%
15% -26.0% 8% -26.5%
20% -33.2% 7% -33.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 28% · top 2 54% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
63% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$2,007) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +2% → late -2% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$33 vs −$21 · ×1.54 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.48 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

146d coverage
Net worth$926
Realized−$1,397
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)23%
Wins / losses41 / 134
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$33
Open positions2
Markets (closed)175 / 177
History coverage146d
Avg bet$1,329
Trades / day3.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 175 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 99¢ 99¢ $756 $756 −$0 (-0%)
Microstrategy delisted from MSCI index by June 30? No 100¢ 100¢ $170 $170 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 24 $757 −$1 -0%
Will Bernard Cazeneuve win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 24 $748 −$1 -0%
Will Tereza Cristina win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 22 $758 −$1 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 22 $1,768 −$3 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 22 $662 −$1 -0%
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 19 $715 −$1 -0%
Will Juan Branco win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 19 $752 −$1 -0%
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 18 $3,249 −$5 -0%
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 18 $1,120 −$2 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 18 $622 −$1 -0%
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 17 $2,307 −$3 -0%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 16 $5,576 −$7 -0%
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 16 $3,311 −$5 -0%
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 15 $3,616 −$5 -0%
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $1,265 −$2 -0%
Will James Talarico win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 14 $1,262 −$2 -0%
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 13 $3,493 −$5 -0%
Will SpaceX IPO by September 30, 2026? Jun 12 $177 +$1 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? Jun 12 $1,627 −$2 -0%
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 12 $1,092 −$2 -0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $2,423 −$3 -0%
Will Jumanji 3 be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 11 $988 −$2 -0%
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 11 $2,007 −$3 -0%
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? Jun 10 $1,120 −$1 -0%
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 09 $2,044 −$3 -0%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 09 $2,288 −$2 -0%
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 08 $2,346 −$3 -0%
LoL: Top Esports vs Team WE (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 08 $85 +$37 +44%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 08 $1,159 −$2 -0%
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 07 $1,111 −$2 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 05 $1,043 −$1 -0%
Kansas City Royals vs. Minnesota Twins Jun 05 $74 −$74 -100%
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 04 $1,204 −$2 -0%
Will 7 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 03 $2,341 −$3 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 03 $2,154 −$2 -0%
Athletics vs. Chicago Cubs Jun 03 $75 −$75 -100%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 02 $690 −$1 -0%
San Francisco Giants vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 02 $47 −$47 -100%
Will XRP reach $3.00 in May? Jun 02 $86 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $110 in May? Jun 02 $102 $0 +0%
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 01 $1,025 −$1 -0%
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 01 $1,140 −$2 -0%
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 31 $1,022 −$2 -0%
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 30 $2,379 −$4 -0%
Will Eric Swalwell win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 30 $1,284 −$2 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 30 $1,073 −$1 -0%
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 29 $4,914 −$6 -0%
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 29 $4,711 −$5 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 28 $2,334 −$4 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 28 $1,088 −$3 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $757 1h
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $756 1h
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $757 4h
Will Bernard Cazeneuve win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $747 6h
Will Bernard Cazeneuve win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $748 8h
Will Tereza Cristina win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $757 2d
Microstrategy delisted from MSCI index by June 30? BUY No 100¢ $170 2d
Will Tereza Cristina win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $758 2d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $758 2d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $759 2d
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $662 2d
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $662 2d
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $714 5d
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $715 5d
Will Juan Branco win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $751 5d
Will Juan Branco win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $752 5d
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $925 6d
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $926 6d
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,118 6d
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,120 6d
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $621 6d
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $622 6d
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,256 6d
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,258 7d
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,057 7d
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,059 8d
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,057 8d
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,059 8d
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,258 9d
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,260 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $926.18 · official $926.18 (match) · 584 history records