Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T13:29:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
56 0x5631…3553 crypto 207 markets active 0h ago coverage 55d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$73 (+9%) realized +$66 · open +$7
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -21% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -34% what you keep after slip
Net edge-34%after slip
Net WR24%break-even
Win rate52%84W / 79L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day14.7pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$123now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$2
14 days+$28
30 days+$14
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 29% +$12
sports 24% −$38
other 20% +$1
crypto 20% −$2
politics 7% −$24
tech 0% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +24%
net ROI/market (all)-28.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 +16.5% +5.4% 71% 36% -15.1%
≤30d 60 -8.5% -17.2% 60% 22% -1.4%
≤90d 163 -21.4% -28.9% 52% 24% -18.0%
all 163 -21.4% -28.9% 52% 24% -18.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover14.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -28.9% 24% -18.0%
10% -35.7% 18% -25.8%
15% -41.9% 12% -33.0%
20% -47.6% 8% -39.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 34% · top 2 46% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
52% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -21% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -26% → late -17% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.61 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.65 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

55d coverage
Net worth$123
Realized+$66
Unrealized+$7
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses84 / 79
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions44
Markets (closed)163 / 207
History coverage55d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day14.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 44 History 163 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Yes 59¢ 100¢ $22 $37 +$15 (+69%)
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? Yes 42¢ 28¢ $11 $7 −$4 (-32%)
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? No 89¢ 83¢ $7 $7 −$0 (-7%)
Will GameStop acquire eBay? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+0%)
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? No 94¢ 99¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+6%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? Yes 100¢ 100¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+0%)
Will FISA Section 702 reauthorization become law this year? Yes 52¢ 46¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-11%)
Gustavo Petro out as leader of Colombia by June 30? No 93¢ 97¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+4%)
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? No 97¢ 100¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+3%)
Will Bitcoin hit $150k by June 30, 2026? No 97¢ 100¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+3%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Yes 38¢ 100¢ $1 $3 +$2 (+163%)
Will Spencer Pratt concede by June 15? Yes 55¢ 47¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-14%)
Iran x Oman Strait of Hormuz agreement by June 15? Yes 12¢ 31¢ $1 $3 +$2 (+155%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? No 83¢ 81¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-2%)
Will New York use a new congressional map for the 2026 United States midterm elections? No 96¢ 97¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+1%)
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? No 97¢ 97¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-0%)
Will the U.S. lift direct Iran OFAC sanctions by June 17, 2026? Yes 66¢ 42¢ $3 $2 −$1 (-37%)
Ukraine officially agrees to a US backed ceasefire framework by June 30? Yes 6¢ 10¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+72%)
Will the U.S. lift direct Iran OFAC sanctions by June 17, 2026? No 89¢ 58¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-35%)
Will Trump speak to Ahmed al-Sharaa in June? Yes 34¢ 44¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+29%)
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Yes 47¢ 56¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+18%)
Trump renames ICE to NICE by June 30? No 84¢ 98¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+17%)
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? Yes 31¢ 36¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+15%)
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? No 82¢ 85¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+4%)
Starmer out by July 31, 2026? Yes 54¢ 56¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by June 30? Jun 17 $1 $0 +6%
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 16 $2 −$1 -49%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? Jun 16 $1 $0 +10%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 15 $4 $0 -10%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 Jun 15 $1 $0 +0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? Jun 15 $2 $0 +18%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? Jun 15 $3 +$2 +53%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 by December 31, 2026? Jun 14 $4 +$3 +69%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 14, 2026? Jun 14 $1 $0 +5%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T? Jun 12 $1 +$1 +59%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? Jun 12 $1 +$2 +150%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 12 $1 $0 +4%
Will Steve Hilton advance from the 2026 California Governor primary el Jun 10 $6 −$2 -37%
Will Tom Steyer advance from the 2026 California Governor primary elec Jun 10 $12 −$6 -50%
Will Ken Calvert advance from the CA-40 primary election? Jun 10 $1 $0 +0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 9? Jun 10 $1 $0 +1%
Will Claude 5 be released by September 30, 2026? Jun 09 $1 $0 +2%
Will Claude 5 be released by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $1 $0 +4%
Will any flight depart from Imam Khomeini International Airport by Jun Jun 09 $1 $0 +25%
Bahrain vs. Syria: O/U 5.5 Jun 08 $1 $0 +0%
Bahrain vs. Syria: O/U 3.5 Jun 08 $2 $0 -18%
Spread: Bahrain (-1.5) Jun 08 $3 $0 -9%
Spread: Bahrain (-2.5) Jun 08 $3 +$1 +22%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 08 $2 −$2 -100%
Iran closes its airspace by July 31? Jun 08 $2 $0 +3%
Iran closes its airspace by June 22? Jun 07 $1 $0 +4%
Iran closes its airspace by July 15? Jun 07 $3 $0 +4%
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 07 $3 −$3 -98%
Russia x Ukraine diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026? Jun 07 $1 $0 +0%
Will Xavier Becerra advance from the 2026 California Governor primary Jun 06 $2 $0 +6%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Tucker Carlson by May 31, 2026? Jun 04 $1 $0 +11%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 04 $33 +$35 +104%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? Jun 02 $2 −$2 -93%
US x Cuba diplomatic meeting by May 31? Jun 02 $1 −$1 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $3 −$2 -79%
Will Solana reach $160 in May? Jun 01 $1 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $50 in May? Jun 01 $1 $0 +1%
Will XRP dip to $0.80 in May? Jun 01 $2 −$1 -46%
Will Dogecoin reach $0.25 in May? Jun 01 $3 $0 +1%
Will Solana reach $130 in May? Jun 01 $3 $0 +1%
Will Solana reach $120 in May? Jun 01 $3 $0 +2%
Will Dogecoin reach $0.15 in May? Jun 01 $2 $0 +12%
Will Dogecoin reach $0.20 in May? Jun 01 $5 $0 +2%
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in May? Jun 01 $3 −$1 -27%
Congress passes Iran war powers resolution by May 31? Jun 01 $3 −$2 -63%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 01 $1 +$1 +127%
Will Trump say "Bahrain" this week? May 31 $2 $0 +22%
Will Solana dip to $80 in May? May 28 $1 +$3 +280%
Will Trump announce a tariff reduction on China? May 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 22? May 24 $1 $0 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? BUY No 82¢ $1 24m
Will Trump speak to Ahmed al-Sharaa in June? BUY No 59¢ $1 1h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? BUY Yes 26¢ $1 1h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? BUY Yes 23¢ $1 1h
Will Trump speak to Ahmed al-Sharaa in June? BUY Yes 34¢ $1 2h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? BUY Yes 41¢ $1 2h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 83¢ $2 2h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 18¢ $2 2h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? BUY Yes 46¢ $1 2h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? BUY Yes 49¢ $1 3h
Ukraine officially agrees to a US backed ceasefire framework by June 3 BUY Yes 6¢ $1 3h
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 31¢ $1 3h
Starmer out by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 54¢ $1 3h
Trump meets with Korean leader Lee Jae-Myung by June 30? BUY Yes 97¢ $1 3h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? BUY Yes 56¢ $1 3h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? BUY Yes 46¢ $1 4h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? BUY Yes 56¢ $1 4h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? BUY Yes 43¢ $1 4h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? BUY Yes 62¢ $1 4h
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $1 4h
Will the U.S. lift direct Iran OFAC sanctions by June 17, 2026? BUY No 87¢ $1 4h
Will the U.S. lift direct Iran OFAC sanctions by June 17, 2026? BUY Yes 79¢ $1 4h
Will the U.S. lift direct Iran OFAC sanctions by June 17, 2026? BUY Yes 61¢ $1 4h
Will the U.S. lift direct Iran OFAC sanctions by June 17, 2026? BUY No 92¢ $1 4h
Will the U.S. lift direct Iran OFAC sanctions by June 17, 2026? BUY Yes 60¢ $1 4h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? BUY Yes 59¢ $1 5h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 100¢ $5 5h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? BUY Yes 54¢ $1 6h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $1 6h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 100¢ $10 11h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $123.05 · official $123.00 (match) · 1153 history records