Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T10:26:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
56 0x5633…b860 crypto 577 markets active 2h ago coverage 252d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$45 (+0%) realized +$45 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR1%break-even
Win rate97%556W / 19L
Whale WR97%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$271per market
Trades / day3.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$319now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$3
14 days+$13
30 days+$38
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 92% −$52
weather 8% +$83
politics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-9.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 44 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 237 +0.3% -9.2% 98% 0% -9.3%
all 575 +0.0% -9.5% 97% 1% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.5% 1% -9.5%
10% -18.1% 0% -18.2%
15% -26.1% 0% -26.1%
20% -33.3% 0% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
99% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 97% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +1% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$28 · ×0.03 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.06 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

252d coverage
Net worth$319
Realized+$45
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)97%
Wins / losses556 / 19
Whale WR (big bets)97%
Open positions2
Markets (closed)575 / 577
History coverage252d
Avg bet$271
Trades / day3.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 575 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $58,000 and $60,000 on June 18? No 100¢ 100¢ $180 $180 −$0 (-0%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 18? Yes 100¢ 100¢ $139 $139 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Bitcoin dip to $61,000 on June 17? Jun 18 $180 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 17? Jun 17 $319 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 16? Jun 16 $318 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $70,000 and $72,000 on June 15? Jun 15 $318 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $61,000 on June 14? Jun 15 $318 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $70,000 and $72,000 on June 14? Jun 14 $317 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 13? Jun 13 $317 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 12? Jun 12 $316 +$1 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $69,000 on June 11? Jun 12 $316 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 on June 10? Jun 11 $316 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 10? Jun 10 $315 +$1 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $66,000 on June 8? Jun 10 $310 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 8? Jun 08 $314 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,000 on June 7? Jun 08 $313 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 7? Jun 07 $313 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 6? Jun 07 $312 +$1 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $68,000 on June 5? Jun 06 $177 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $56,000 on June 5? Jun 06 $230 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 5? Jun 06 $1,008 +$3 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 on June 4? Jun 05 $1,000 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 4? Jun 04 $1,005 +$1 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $61,000 on June 3? Jun 04 $1,000 +$5 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $76,000 on June 2? Jun 03 $183 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $63,000 on June 2? Jun 03 $816 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 2? Jun 02 $362 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on June 2? Jun 02 $453 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $74,000 on June 1? Jun 02 $997 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on June 1? Jun 01 $996 +$1 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in May? Jun 01 $994 +$2 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 on May 28? May 29 $993 +$1 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 on May 27? May 28 $992 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 27? May 27 $991 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 26? May 27 $489 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $80,000 and $82,000 on May 26? May 27 $501 +$1 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 on May 25? May 26 $501 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 25? May 25 $500 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 on May 24? May 25 $160 +$1 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $73,000 on May 24? May 25 $799 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 24? May 24 $987 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $80,000 and $82,000 on May 23? May 24 $986 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 22? May 23 $985 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 21? May 21 $983 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 20? May 20 $980 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 19? May 19 $780 +$2 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $73,000 on May 18? May 19 $977 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 18? May 18 $977 +$1 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $82,000 on May 17? May 18 $240 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $73,000 on May 17? May 18 $737 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 17? May 17 $976 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 16? May 16 $976 +$1 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $58,000 and $60,000 on June 18? BUY No 100¢ $180 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 18? BUY Yes 100¢ $139 10h
Will Bitcoin dip to $61,000 on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $180 10h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 17? BUY Yes 100¢ $319 18h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 16? BUY Yes 100¢ $318 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $70,000 and $72,000 on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $318 3d
Will Bitcoin dip to $61,000 on June 14? BUY No 100¢ $318 3d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $70,000 and $72,000 on June 14? BUY No 100¢ $317 4d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 13? BUY No 100¢ $317 5d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 12? BUY Yes 100¢ $316 5d
Will Bitcoin reach $69,000 on June 11? BUY No 100¢ $316 7d
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 on June 10? BUY No 100¢ $316 7d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 10? BUY Yes 100¢ $315 8d
Will Bitcoin reach $66,000 on June 8? BUY No 100¢ $310 9d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 8? BUY Yes 100¢ $314 10d
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,000 on June 7? BUY No 100¢ $313 10d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 7? BUY No 100¢ $313 11d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 6? BUY No 100¢ $312 11d
Will Bitcoin dip to $56,000 on June 5? BUY No 100¢ $230 12d
Will Bitcoin reach $68,000 on June 5? BUY No 100¢ $177 12d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 5? BUY No 100¢ $1,008 13d
Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 on June 4? BUY No 100¢ $1,000 13d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 4? BUY No 100¢ $1,005 14d
Will Bitcoin dip to $61,000 on June 3? BUY No 100¢ $1,000 14d
Will Bitcoin dip to $63,000 on June 2? BUY No 100¢ $816 15d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 2? BUY Yes 100¢ $362 16d
Will Bitcoin reach $76,000 on June 2? BUY No 100¢ $183 16d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on June 2? BUY No 100¢ $453 16d
Will Bitcoin reach $74,000 on June 1? BUY No 100¢ $997 16d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on June 1? BUY No 100¢ $996 16d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $318.71 · official $318.71 (match) · 1273 history records