Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T17:37:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
56 0x5633…cd82 weather 716 markets active 1h ago coverage 56d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$893 (+0%) realized +$891 · open +$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR1%break-even
Win rate98%694W / 11L
Whale WR100%big bets
Drawdown8%max
Avg bet$477per market
Trades / day29.4pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$6,043now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$24
7 days+$152
14 days+$296
30 days+$569
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 100% +$846
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-9.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 92 +0.4% -9.1% 100% 0% -9.3%
≤30d 452 +0.3% -9.2% 100% 0% -9.3%
≤90d 705 +0.1% -9.4% 98% 1% -9.3%
all 705 +0.1% -9.4% 98% 1% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover29.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.4% 1% -9.3%
10% ← realistic here -18.1% 0% -18.0%
15% -26.0% 0% -25.9%
20% -33.3% 0% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
99% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 100% (≥$637) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -0% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$13 · ×0.11 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×7.01 per $1 lost it wins $7.01
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

56d coverage
Net worth$6,043
Realized+$891
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)98%
Wins / losses694 / 11
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Open positions11
Markets (closed)705 / 716
History coverage56d
Avg bet$477
Trades / day29.4
Drawdown8%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 11 History 705 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 27°C on June 18? No 100¢ 100¢ $1,137 $1,138 +$1 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on June 18? Yes 100¢ 100¢ $992 $992 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 30°C on June 18? No 100¢ 100¢ $834 $835 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 38°C on June 18? No 100¢ 100¢ $651 $650 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 26°C on June 18? No 100¢ 100¢ $575 $575 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 35°C on June 18? No 100¢ 100¢ $574 $574 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 36°C on June 18? No 100¢ 100¢ $434 $434 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 32°C on June 18? No 100¢ 100¢ $421 $421 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 28°C on June 18? No 100¢ 100¢ $300 $300 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 33°C on June 18? No 100¢ 100¢ $65 $65 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 27°C on June 18? No 100¢ 100¢ $60 $60 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 76-77°F on Ju Jun 18 $402 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 78-79°F on June 17? Jun 18 $87 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 27°C on June 17? Jun 17 $1,581 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 25°C on June 17? Jun 17 $562 +$2 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 29°C on June 17? Jun 17 $10 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 22°C on June 17? Jun 17 $609 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 37°C on June 17? Jun 17 $1,783 +$2 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 23°C on June 17? Jun 17 $205 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 30°C on June 17? Jun 17 $274 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 32°C on June 17? Jun 17 $605 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 31°C on June 17? Jun 17 $727 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on June 17? Jun 17 $46 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 70-71°F on Ju Jun 17 $587 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 76-77°F on June 16? Jun 17 $461 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on June Jun 17 $536 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 72-73°F on Ju Jun 17 $110 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 82-83°F on June 16? Jun 17 $255 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 78-79°F on June 16? Jun 17 $1,648 +$2 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 94-95°F on June 16? Jun 17 $149 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be 96°F or higher on June 16? Jun 17 $1,317 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 84-85°F on June 16? Jun 17 $720 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 74-75°F on June 16? Jun 17 $201 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 29°C on June 16? Jun 16 $708 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 25°C on June 16? Jun 16 $70 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 26°C on June 16? Jun 16 $117 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 25°C on June 16? Jun 16 $1,495 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 24°C on June 16? Jun 16 $1,314 +$2 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on June 16? Jun 16 $17 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 16? Jun 16 $68 +$2 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 21°C on June 16? Jun 16 $346 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 31°C on June 16? Jun 16 $187 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 23°C on June 16? Jun 16 $193 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 25°C on June 16? Jun 16 $184 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 27°C on June 16? Jun 16 $22 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 30°C on June 16? Jun 16 $884 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 31°C on June 16? Jun 16 $412 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 33°C on June 15? Jun 15 $1,279 +$2 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 34°C on June 15? Jun 15 $774 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 32°C on June 15? Jun 15 $187 +$2 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 24°C on June 15? Jun 15 $93 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 25°C on June 15? Jun 15 $42 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 15? Jun 15 $342 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 15? Jun 15 $870 +$3 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 18°C on June 15? Jun 15 $800 +$4 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 19°C on June 15? Jun 15 $400 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 26°C on June 15? Jun 15 $50 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 27°C on June 15? Jun 15 $1,166 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 22°C on June 14? Jun 14 $971 +$4 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 23°C on June 14? Jun 14 $1,933 +$2 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 82-83°F on June 13? Jun 14 $406 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on June 18? BUY Yes 100¢ $492 1h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 32°C on June 18? BUY No 100¢ $421 1h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 26°C on June 18? BUY No 100¢ $500 1h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 30°C on June 18? BUY No 100¢ $51 1h
Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on June 18? BUY Yes 100¢ $500 1h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 35°C on June 18? BUY No 100¢ $574 1h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 36°C on June 18? BUY No 100¢ $434 1h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 30°C on June 18? BUY No 100¢ $783 1h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 38°C on June 18? BUY No 100¢ $500 1h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 38°C on June 18? BUY No 100¢ $152 1h
Will the highest temperature in London be 27°C on June 18? BUY No 100¢ $60 1h
Will the highest temperature in London be 28°C on June 18? BUY No 100¢ $300 1h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 33°C on June 18? BUY No 100¢ $65 2h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 26°C on June 18? BUY No 100¢ $75 2h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 27°C on June 18? BUY No 100¢ $974 2h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 27°C on June 18? BUY No 100¢ $163 2h
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 78-79°F on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $87 17h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 76-77°F on Ju BUY No 100¢ $14 17h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 76-77°F on Ju BUY No 100¢ $388 18h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 25°C on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $14 24h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 25°C on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $100 24h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 25°C on June 17? BUY No 99¢ $15 24h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 25°C on June 17? BUY No 99¢ $8 24h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 25°C on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $93 24h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 25°C on June 17? BUY No 99¢ $61 24h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 25°C on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $34 24h
Will the highest temperature in London be 27°C on June 17? SELL No 100¢ $322 24h
Will the highest temperature in London be 27°C on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $1,581 24h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 37°C on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $1,783 24h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 29°C on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $10 24h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $6,043.35 · official $6,043.35 (match) · 2303 history records