Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T04:36:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5

score

56 0x5634…7df5 other 8 markets active 1h ago coverage 6d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge

Total PnL +$46 (+6%) realized +$49 · open −$3

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +34% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +21% what you keep after slip

Net edge+21%after slip

Net WR80%break-even

Win rate100%5W / 0L

Drawdown0%max

Avg bet$93per market

Trades / day1.6pace

Kalshi-fit0%portable

Net worth$382now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +80%

net ROI/market (all)+20.9%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	5	+33.6%	+20.9%	100%	80%	+2.0%
≤30d	5	+33.6%	+20.9%	100%	80%	+2.0%
≤90d	5	+33.6%	+20.9%	100%	80%	+2.0%
all	5	+33.6%	+20.9%	100%	80%	+2.0%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover1.6 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to10%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+20.9%	80%	+2.0%
10%	+9.3%	60%	-7.7%
15%	-1.2%	40%	-16.7%
20%	-10.9%	20%	-24.8%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 64% · top 2 80% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +13% too few recent

Fragile wins

20% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +34% · $-wt +13% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$9 vs — no data

Profit factor

— no data

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage

Net worth$382

Realized+$49

Unrealized−$3

Win rate (resolved)100%

Wins / losses5 / 0

Open positions3

Markets (closed)5 / 8

History coverage6d

Avg bet$93

Trades / day1.6

Drawdown0%

Kalshi-fit0%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 3 History 5 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24?	Yes	59¢	58¢	$265	$263	−$2 (-1%)
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24?	Yes	83¢	82¢	$100	$99	−$1 (-1%)
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24?	Yes	73¢	72¢	$20	$20	−$0 (-1%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will France win on 2026-06-22?	Jun 23	$301	+$29	+10%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22?	Jun 22	$10	+$5	+46%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21?	Jun 22	$30	+$3	+11%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18?	Jun 20	$4	+$1	+29%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19?	Jun 20	$10	+$7	+73%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24?	BUY Yes	59¢	$116	1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24?	BUY Yes	73¢	$20	1h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24?	BUY Yes	83¢	$101	1h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24?	BUY Yes	59¢	$152	1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22?	BUY Yes	68¢	$10	41h
Will France win on 2026-06-22?	BUY Yes	91¢	$301	43h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21?	BUY Yes	90¢	$30	2d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19?	BUY Yes	57¢	$10	4d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18?	BUY Yes	77¢	$4	5d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $382.01 · official $382.01 (match) · 15 history records