Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T08:58:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5

score

56 0x5634…dda9 other 3 markets active 2h ago coverage 1d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable! high turnover

Total PnL +$25 (+3%) realized +$94 · open −$69

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +78% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +48% what you keep after slip

Net edge+48%after slip

Net WR100%break-even

Win rate100%2W / 0L

Drawdown0%max

Avg bet$262per market

Trades / day9.0pace

Kalshi-fit0%portable

Net worth$566now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +100%

net ROI/market (all)+60.8%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	2	+77.7%	+60.8%	100%	100%	+74.4%
≤30d	2	+77.7%	+60.8%	100%	100%	+74.4%
≤90d	2	+77.7%	+60.8%	100%	100%	+74.4%
all	2	+77.7%	+60.8%	100%	100%	+74.4%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover9.0 tr/day

realistic slip~9%

edge survives to20%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+60.8%	100%	+74.4%
10%	+45.4%	100%	+57.7%
15%	+31.3%	100%	+42.5%
20%	+18.5%	50%	+28.5%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 88% · top 2 100% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +93% too few recent

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +78% · $-wt +93% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

2.3 add-ons/market adds to positions

Win / loss size

+$61 vs — no data

Profit factor

— no data

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage

Net worth$566

Realized+$94

Unrealized−$69

Win rate (resolved)100%

Wins / losses2 / 0

Open positions1

Markets (closed)2 / 3

History coverage1d

Avg bet$262

Trades / day9.0

Drawdown0%

Kalshi-fit0%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 2 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	6¢	6¢	$635	$566	−$69 (-11%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	Jun 20	$101	+$107	+106%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20?	Jun 20	$30	+$15	+50%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	5¢	$62	1h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	6¢	$77	10h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	7¢	$103	10h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	SELL Yes	100¢	$209	10h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20?	SELL No	100¢	$45	10h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20?	BUY No	66¢	$30	12h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	BUY Yes	39¢	$51	12h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	BUY Yes	62¢	$51	12h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	6¢	$411	12h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $565.69 · official $565.69 (match) · 10 history records