Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T08:49:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
56 0x5635…d2c6 crypto 157 markets active 3d ago coverage 24d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$52 (+2%) realized +$52 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate85%133W / 24L
Drawdown49%max
Avg bet$14per market
Trades / day7.5pace
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$13
14 days−$13
30 days+$44
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 52% +$58
other 48% −$15
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-8.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 31 -17.2% -25.1% 58% 26% -24.3%
≤30d 157 +0.9% -8.7% 85% 25% -7.7%
≤90d 157 +0.9% -8.7% 85% 25% -7.7%
all 157 +0.9% -8.7% 85% 25% -7.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.7% 25% -7.7%
10% -17.4% 15% -16.5%
15% -25.4% 13% -24.6%
20% -32.7% 12% -32.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 21% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
69% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +8% → late -6% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$6 · ×0.24 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.32 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

24d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$52
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)85%
Wins / losses133 / 24
Open positions0
Markets (closed)157 / 157
History coverage24d
Avg bet$14
Trades / day7.5
Drawdown49%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 157 Trades
no open positions (21 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 14 $6 −$6 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 14 $6 −$6 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 14 $3 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 14 $3 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 14 $6 +$9 +144%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 14 $3 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 14 $3 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 14 $3 +$4 +119%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 13 $2 +$1 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 13 $3 −$3 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 13 $3 −$3 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 13 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 13 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 13 $3 +$2 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 13 $3 −$3 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 12 $3 +$5 +166%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 12 $3 +$3 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 12 $3 −$3 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 11 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 03 $1 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 03 $1 +$1 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 03 $1 $0 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 03 $1 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 03 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 03 $1 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 03 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 03 $1 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 03 $1 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 03 $1 $0 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET May 31 $2 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET May 31 $1 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET May 31 $2 +$3 +157%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET May 31 $8 +$1 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET May 31 $1 +$1 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET May 31 $1 $0 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET May 31 $21 −$20 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET May 31 $21 +$15 +74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET May 31 $2 −$2 -94%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Down 9¢ $3 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Down 79¢ $3 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Down 89¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Up 72¢ $6 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Up 76¢ $3 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $3 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET BUY Up 88¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $3 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET SELL Down 98¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET BUY Down 89¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $15 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET BUY Up 27¢ $3 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET BUY Up 75¢ $3 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $3 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 70¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $3 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET BUY Down 44¢ $3 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET BUY Down 42¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $2 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Up 71¢ $3 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET BUY Down 81¢ $3 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET BUY Down 42¢ $3 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $3 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 305 history records