Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T05:41:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5

score

56 0x5638…89af sports 19 markets active 1h ago coverage 7d

RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage

Total PnL +$41 (+1%) realized +$66 · open −$25

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip

Net edge-6%after slip

Net WR57%break-even

Win rate71%5W / 2L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$306per market

Trades / day2.7pace

Fees−$45est.

Kalshi-fit79%portable

Net worth$2,375now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 7d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +57%

net ROI/market (all)-5.8%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	7	+4.1%	-5.8%	71%	57%	-9.0%
≤30d	7	+4.1%	-5.8%	71%	57%	-9.0%
≤90d	7	+4.1%	-5.8%	71%	57%	-9.0%
all	7	+4.1%	-5.8%	71%	57%	-9.0%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover2.7 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-5.8%	57%	-9.0%
10%	-14.8%	57%	-17.7%
15%	-23.0%	57%	-25.6%
20%	-30.6%	14%	-32.9%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 43% · top 2 69% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +1% too few recent

Fragile wins

20% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +4% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$204 vs −$500 · ×0.41 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×1.02 profit barely above losses

Copy size

≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

7d coverage

Net worth$2,375

Realized+$66

Unrealized−$25

Win rate (resolved)71%

Wins / losses5 / 2

Est. fees paid−$45

Open positions12

Markets (closed)7 / 19

History coverage7d

Avg bet$306

Trades / day2.7

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 12 History 7 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score	Yes	49¢	50¢	$200	$202	+$2 (+1%)
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score	Yes	56¢	56¢	$200	$198	−$2 (-1%)
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score	Yes	53¢	52¢	$200	$198	−$2 (-1%)
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score	Yes	51¢	50¢	$200	$198	−$2 (-1%)
Czechia vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score	Yes	50¢	50¢	$200	$198	−$2 (-1%)
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score	Yes	48¢	48¢	$200	$198	−$2 (-1%)
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score	Yes	47¢	46¢	$200	$198	−$2 (-1%)
Scotland vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score	Yes	46¢	46¢	$200	$198	−$2 (-1%)
Canada vs. Qatar: Both Teams to Score	Yes	42¢	42¢	$200	$198	−$2 (-1%)
Brazil vs. Haiti: Both Teams to Score	Yes	40¢	40¢	$200	$198	−$2 (-1%)
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score	Yes	31¢	30¢	$200	$197	−$3 (-2%)
Tunisia vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score	Yes	45¢	44¢	$200	$196	−$4 (-2%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14?	Jun 14	$406	−$400	-98%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14?	Jun 14	$301	+$20	+6%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 1.5	Jun 14	$302	+$109	+36%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5	Jun 14	$504	+$190	+38%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12?	Jun 13	$254	+$267	+105%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13?	Jun 13	$603	−$600	-99%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11?	Jun 11	$998	+$435	+44%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Tunisia vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score	BUY Yes	45¢	$203	1h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score	BUY Yes	31¢	$204	1h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score	BUY Yes	56¢	$203	1h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score	BUY Yes	53¢	$203	1h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score	BUY Yes	51¢	$203	1h
Brazil vs. Haiti: Both Teams to Score	BUY Yes	40¢	$204	1h
Scotland vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score	BUY Yes	46¢	$203	1h
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score	BUY Yes	48¢	$203	1h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score	BUY Yes	49¢	$203	1h
Canada vs. Qatar: Both Teams to Score	BUY Yes	42¢	$203	1h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score	BUY Yes	47¢	$203	1h
Czechia vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score	BUY Yes	50¢	$203	1h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14?	BUY Yes	48¢	$406	3d
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14?	BUY Yes	94¢	$301	4d
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 1.5	BUY Over	73¢	$302	4d
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5	BUY Over	72¢	$504	5d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13?	BUY Yes	81¢	$603	5d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12?	BUY Yes	48¢	$254	5d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11?	BUY Yes	69¢	$998	6d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,375.47 · official $2,375.47 (match) · 24 history records