Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T04:18:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
56 0x563f…5c63 crypto 104 markets active 0h ago coverage 5d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$24 (-7%) realized −$24 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate53%55W / 48L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day37.5pace
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 5d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 95% −$22
other 5% −$15
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-15.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 103 -6.6% -15.5% 53% 42% -19.7%
≤30d 103 -6.6% -15.5% 53% 42% -19.7%
≤90d 103 -6.6% -15.5% 53% 42% -19.7%
all 103 -6.6% -15.5% 53% 42% -19.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover37.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -15.5% 42% -19.7%
10% ← realistic here -23.6% 30% -27.4%
15% -30.9% 21% -34.4%
20% -37.7% 10% -40.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 17% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -11% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
22% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -10% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
0.8 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.57 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.65 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

5d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$24
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses55 / 48
Open positions0
Markets (closed)103 / 104
History coverage5d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day37.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 103 Trades
no open positions (28 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$2 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$1 -42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 15 $2 +$2 +78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$1 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 13 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 13 $2 −$1 -46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 13 $1 +$3 +254%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 13 $6 +$1 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Jun 13 $7 +$2 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Jun 13 $6 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Jun 13 $4 +$2 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 13 $4 $0 +10%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $15 −$15 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 13 $0 $0 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 13 $0 $0 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 13 $0 $0 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 13 $0 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 12 $0 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 12 $0 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 12 $0 $0 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 12 $0 $0 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 12 $0 $0 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 12 $0 $0 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 12 $0 $0 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 12 $0 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 12 $0 $0 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Jun 12 $0 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Jun 12 $0 $0 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET Jun 11 $0 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Jun 11 $0 $0 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Jun 11 $0 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Jun 11 $0 $0 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 11 $9 −$9 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 11 $10 −$10 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $2 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET SELL Up 62¢ $7 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET BUY Up 41¢ $5 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET BUY Down 7¢ $1 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET SELL Down 61¢ $0 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET SELL Up 77¢ $1 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET SELL Down 84¢ $1 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET SELL Up 32¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET SELL Up 92¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET SELL Up 83¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET BUY Up 66¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET SELL Up 75¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET BUY Up 39¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET SELL Up 44¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET BUY Up 23¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET SELL Down 61¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET BUY Down 42¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET SELL Up 41¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET BUY Up 43¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET BUY Down 37¢ $8 35h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET BUY Up 24¢ $2 35h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET SELL Down 36¢ $0 36h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $1 36h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET SELL Down 62¢ $1 36h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET BUY Down 59¢ $1 36h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET SELL Down 20¢ $4 36h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET BUY Down 5¢ $1 36h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET SELL Down 50¢ $0 47h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET SELL Up 63¢ $6 47h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 239 history records