Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T13:35:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
56 0x5641…6b17 other 95 markets active 2h ago coverage 26d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL −$1,953 (-6%) realized −$1,254 · open −$699
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +21% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +5% what you keep after slip
Net edge+5%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate46%37W / 44L
Whale WR74%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$369per market
Trades / day5.6pace
Fees−$100est.
Kalshi-fit41%portable
Net worth$3,175now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1,422
7 days−$1,761
14 days−$1,504
30 days−$1,489
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 74% −$4,190
sports 20% +$1,600
crypto 6% +$504
world 0% −$102
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)+9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 55 +42.5% +28.9% 45% 42% -16.2%
≤30d 81 +21.2% +9.6% 46% 43% -14.8%
≤90d 81 +21.2% +9.6% 46% 43% -14.8%
all 81 +21.2% +9.6% 46% 43% -14.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +9.6% 43% -14.8%
10% -0.9% 33% -23.0%
15% -10.5% 26% -30.4%
20% -19.2% 16% -37.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 27% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +21% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 74% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -9% → late +51% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$169 vs −$176 · ×0.96 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.81 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

26d coverage
Net worth$3,175
Realized−$1,254
Unrealized−$699
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses37 / 44
Whale WR (big bets)74%
Est. fees paid−$100
Open positions12
Markets (closed)81 / 95
History coverage26d
Avg bet$369
Trades / day5.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit41%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 12 History 81 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 6¢ $1,838 $1,173 −$666 (-36%)
Norway vs. France: O/U 3.5 Under 59¢ 57¢ $468 $456 −$12 (-3%)
Senegal vs. Iraq: Both Teams to Score Yes 46¢ 44¢ $250 $242 −$8 (-3%)
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 2.5 Over 44¢ 42¢ $250 $241 −$9 (-3%)
New Zealand vs. Belgium: O/U 3.5 Under 46¢ 46¢ $225 $223 −$2 (-1%)
Spread: Belgium (-2.5) New Zealand 57¢ 56¢ $150 $149 −$1 (-1%)
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? Yes 37¢ 36¢ $150 $148 −$2 (-1%)
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-26? Yes 80¢ 80¢ $143 $142 −$1 (-1%)
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-26? Yes 15¢ 16¢ $100 $103 +$3 (+3%)
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? Yes 39¢ 40¢ $100 $101 +$1 (+1%)
Norway vs. France: Draw at halftime? Yes 37¢ 36¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Egypt vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 Over 32¢ 32¢ $100 $98 −$2 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 18 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Senegal 3 - 1 Iraq? Jun 26 $21 −$1 -5%
Senegal vs. Iraq: O/U 2.5 Jun 26 $101 −$4 -4%
Exact Score: Senegal 2 - 1 Iraq? Jun 26 $21 −$3 -16%
Norway vs. France: O/U 4.5 Jun 26 $265 −$10 -4%
Will Senegal vs. Iraq end in a draw? Jun 26 $103 −$12 -12%
Senegal vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 Jun 26 $154 −$6 -4%
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $202 −$8 -4%
Norway vs. France: France 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 26 $302 −$17 -6%
Exact Score: Türkiye 3 - 2 United States? Jun 26 $21 +$711 +3454%
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $102 +$116 +114%
Türkiye vs. United States: Both Teams to Score Jun 26 $202 +$126 +62%
Exact Score: Türkiye 2 - 1 United States? Jun 26 $31 −$30 -97%
Will Paraguay vs. Australia end in a draw? Jun 26 $203 −$2 -1%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $509 −$500 -98%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $203 +$155 +77%
Japan vs. Sweden: Sweden O/U 1.5 Jun 26 $101 +$48 +48%
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 3.5 Jun 26 $101 +$44 +43%
Exact Score: Tunisia 1 - 3 Netherlands? Jun 26 $10 +$115 +1115%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $204 −$189 -92%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $1,003 +$119 +12%
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: Both Teams to Score Jun 26 $102 +$168 +165%
Exact Score: Tunisia 0 - 3 Netherlands? Jun 25 $21 −$20 -98%
Exact Score: Tunisia 1 - 1 Netherlands? Jun 25 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $503 +$141 +28%
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? Jun 25 $204 −$102 -50%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $2,886 $0 -0%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $2,580 +$510 +20%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $202 +$84 +41%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $379 −$374 -99%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $597 +$279 +47%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 23 $51 −$51 -100%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 23 $51 −$51 -100%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 23 $102 −$102 -100%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 23 $131 −$131 -100%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 23 $90 −$90 -100%
Will CR Vasco da Gama win on 2026-05-31? Jun 23 $126 −$126 -100%
Exact Score: Ecuador 3 - 0 Curaçao? Jun 23 $39 −$39 -100%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 23 $203 −$203 -100%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 23 $825 −$825 -100%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Jun 23 $1,005 −$1,005 -100%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $950 +$150 +16%
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $2,232 +$214 +10%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $505 +$230 +46%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $967 −$967 -100%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $2,321 −$2,321 -100%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Both Teams to Score Jun 21 $202 +$96 +48%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $798 +$94 +12%
Spain to score first vs. Saudi Arabia? Jun 21 $1,004 +$132 +13%
Lamine Yamal: 1+ goals Jun 21 $102 +$102 +101%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $1,803 +$100 +6%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Egypt vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 32¢ $102 1h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 39¢ $102 1h
Exact Score: Senegal 3 - 1 Iraq? SELL Yes 8¢ $19 1h
New Zealand vs. Belgium: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 45¢ $76 1h
Spread: Belgium (-2.5) BUY New Zealand 57¢ $152 1h
New Zealand vs. Belgium: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 46¢ $203 1h
New Zealand vs. Belgium: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 46¢ $106 1h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 15¢ $103 2h
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 44¢ $254 2h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 37¢ $153 2h
Senegal vs. Iraq: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 64¢ $97 3h
Exact Score: Senegal 2 - 1 Iraq? SELL Yes 8¢ $17 4h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 80¢ $144 4h
Senegal vs. Iraq: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 65¢ $101 4h
Senegal vs. Iraq: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 46¢ $254 4h
Norway vs. France: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 59¢ $170 4h
Norway vs. France: O/U 4.5 SELL Under 76¢ $254 4h
Norway vs. France: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 59¢ $304 4h
Will Senegal vs. Iraq end in a draw? SELL Yes 13¢ $90 4h
Senegal vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 58¢ $148 4h
Will France win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 60¢ $194 4h
Norway vs. France: France 1st Half O/U 1.5 SELL Under 72¢ $286 4h
Norway vs. France: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 78¢ $96 4h
Norway vs. France: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 37¢ $102 4h
Norway vs. France: France 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 75¢ $302 4h
Senegal vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 59¢ $53 4h
Exact Score: Senegal 2 - 1 Iraq? BUY Yes 9¢ $21 4h
Exact Score: Senegal 3 - 1 Iraq? BUY Yes 8¢ $21 4h
Will Senegal vs. Iraq end in a draw? BUY Yes 14¢ $103 4h
Senegal vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 59¢ $101 5h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3,175.05 · official $3,175.08 (match) · 187 history records