Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T16:42:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
56 0x5642…23c9 crypto 889 markets active 1h ago coverage 101d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$306 (-3%) realized −$306 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate70%621W / 268L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$11per market
Trades / day20.7pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$4
7 days−$35
14 days−$194
30 days−$264
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 97% −$438
other 2% −$19
politics 0% −$29
sports 0% −$16
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-15.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 23 -10.7% -19.2% 78% 9% -17.9%
≤30d 299 -12.9% -21.2% 66% 18% -14.6%
≤90d 888 -7.0% -15.8% 70% 38% -14.1%
all 889 -7.1% -15.9% 70% 38% -14.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover20.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -15.9% 38% -14.3%
10% ← realistic here -24.0% 17% -22.5%
15% -31.3% 10% -30.0%
20% -38.1% 8% -36.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
44% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -7% → late -8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$7 · ×0.31 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.72 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

101d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$306
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)70%
Wins / losses621 / 268
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)889 / 889
History coverage101d
Avg bet$11
Trades / day20.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 889 Trades
no open positions (60 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 26 $25 +$2 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 26 $26 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 26 $26 +$8 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 26 $8 −$7 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 26 $35 −$9 -26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 26 $8 +$2 +27%
Will Ecuador advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Jun 23 $90 −$25 -28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 19 $9 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 19 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 19 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 19 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 19 $10 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 19 $10 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 19 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 19 $10 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 19 $10 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 19 $9 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 19 $19 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 19 $9 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 19 $10 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 19 $10 $0 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 19 $10 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 19 $9 +$1 +6%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 19 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 19 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 19 $5 −$4 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 19 $10 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 19 $10 $0 -1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 19 $10 $0 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 19 $10 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 19 $4 −$4 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 19 $10 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 19 $5 −$5 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 19 $10 $0 +4%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 19 $9 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 19 $9 +$1 +6%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 19 $10 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 19 $10 $0 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 19 $10 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 19 $10 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 19 $9 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 19 $10 $0 -1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 19 $10 $0 -1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 19 $10 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 19 $10 $0 -1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 19 $10 −$3 -31%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 19 $10 $0 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 19 $10 $0 -2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET SELL Down 96¢ $27 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Down 89¢ $25 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET SELL Up 54¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET SELL Up 54¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET SELL Up 54¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET SELL Up 54¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET SELL Down 60¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET SELL Down 67¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET SELL Down 67¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET SELL Down 67¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET SELL Down 67¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET SELL Down 67¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET SELL Down 67¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET SELL Down 67¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Down 25¢ $8 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $25 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $10 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Up 79¢ $8 4h
Will Ecuador advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup SELL Yes 24¢ $6 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET SELL Up 4¢ $0 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $0 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $4 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET BUY Up 44¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $3 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Down 41¢ $4 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $2 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 2744 history records