Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T07:32:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
56 0x5642…8361 other 51 markets active 1h ago coverage 467d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$0 (+0%) realized +$0 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate47%23W / 26L
Drawdown89%max
Avg bet$19per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit65%portable
Net worth$35now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days−$2
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 37% −$2
other 24% −$1
politics 11% +$2
sports 9% +$1
weather 6% $0
economics 4% $0
crypto 4% +$1
tech 4% $0
finance 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-9.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +0.4% -9.1% 50% 0% -9.3%
≤30d 8 -0.3% -9.8% 38% 0% -10.2%
≤90d 8 -0.3% -9.8% 38% 0% -10.2%
all 49 -0.3% -9.8% 47% 6% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.8% 6% -9.4%
10% -18.4% 0% -18.1%
15% -26.3% 0% -26.0%
20% -33.5% 0% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 39% · top 2 57% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
87% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.78 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.19 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

467d coverage
Net worth$35
Realized+$0
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses23 / 26
Open positions2
Markets (closed)49 / 51
History coverage467d
Avg bet$19
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown89%
Kalshi-fit65%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 49 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? No 95¢ 95¢ $34 $34 +$0 (+0%)
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? Yes 59¢ 56¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Jun 18 $3 $0 +3%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 17 $5 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 15 $89 $0 +0%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 13 $7 $0 -1%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 13 $19 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 12 $50 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Jun 11 $47 −$2 -5%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? Jun 10 $16 $0 +0%
Will Borussia Dortmund win the FIFA Club World Cup? Dec 14 $2 $0 +3%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decemb Jun 25 $16 $0 -0%
Will Han Duck-soo be elected the next president of South Korea? Jun 04 $2 $0 +5%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2025 French Open? Jun 02 $1 $0 +0%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Dec May 17 $16 $0 -1%
Will Trump sell over 100k Gold Cards in 2025? May 14 $15 $0 +0%
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2025 National League Championshi May 11 $13 $0 +0%
Will Netherlands qualify for the Eurovision 2025 grand final? May 11 $3 $0 +0%
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2025 World Series? May 10 $16 $0 -1%
Will monthly inflation increase by 0.5% or more in April? May 10 $15 $0 -0%
Will federal spending decrease by $250-500b between Q4 2024 and Q2 202 May 09 $14 $0 -0%
Will Pacers vs. Nuggets be the 2025 NBA Finals matchup? May 09 $16 $0 +0%
Will the Pittsburgh Pirates win the 2025 National League Championship? May 09 $12 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 275–299 times May 2–9? May 09 $6 −$2 -27%
Will 'Michael' have the best domestic opening weekend in 2025? May 08 $17 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $2000 on May 9? May 08 $19 −$2 -10%
Will Anthropic have the top AI model on May 31? May 07 $19 $0 -0%
Will HNP win the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the 2 May 07 $19 $0 -0%
Will the next Government of Canada be a Liberal majority? May 07 $19 $0 -0%
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decem May 06 $19 $0 +0%
Will Nikola Jokic win the 2024-25 NBA MVP? May 06 $18 $0 +0%
Will Pedro Nuno Santos be the next Prime Minister of Portugal after th May 06 $18 $0 +0%
Will the LA Clippers win the 2025 NBA Finals? May 06 $19 $0 +3%
2025 March hottest on record? Apr 11 $1 −$1 -47%
Will the Houston Rockets win the Western Conference? Apr 08 $3 $0 +12%
Will Trump pardon Derek Chauvin in his first 100 days? Apr 07 $22 $0 +0%
Will Yuki Tsunoda win the 2025 Japanese Grand Prix? Apr 07 $21 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in London be between 64-65°F on April 4? Apr 04 $22 $0 -0%
Will 1-2 justices on South Korea's Constitutional Court vote for Yoon' Apr 04 $20 +$1 +7%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Apr 02 $20 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 67°F or higher on March 30? Apr 01 $18 $0 +1%
Will the New Jersey Devils win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Mar 31 $1 $0 +17%
Will Atletico Madrid win La Liga? Mar 29 $20 $0 +2%
Will Tennessee win the 2025 NCAA Tournament? Mar 22 $19 $0 +0%
No change in Fed interest rates after March 2025 meeting? Mar 21 $20 $0 +1%
Will 'Black Bag' gross between 5-7m on opening weekend? Mar 18 $19 +$1 +3%
Will the LA Clippers win the Western Conference? Mar 16 $19 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 54°F or higher on March 16? Mar 16 $19 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $85000 and $87000 on Mar 14? Mar 15 $16 +$3 +20%
Will the Los Angeles Kings win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Mar 13 $16 $0 +0%
Will Zelenskyy apologize to Trump by Friday? Mar 11 $16 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 95¢ $34 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL Yes 37¢ $3 6h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY Yes 36¢ $3 8h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $5 9h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 95¢ $5 10h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 89¢ $24 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 89¢ $20 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 90¢ $9 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 89¢ $25 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 89¢ $10 2d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 58¢ $38 3d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 58¢ $11 3d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 59¢ $50 3d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 60¢ $3 3d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 60¢ $47 3d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 60¢ $50 3d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes 8¢ $2 4d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes 8¢ $4 4d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY Yes 8¢ $3 4d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY Yes 8¢ $4 4d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 37¢ $19 4d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 37¢ $19 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 84¢ $38 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 84¢ $8 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 83¢ $46 5d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $50 5d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $50 5d
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? SELL Yes 61¢ $34 7d
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? SELL Yes 61¢ $12 7d
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? BUY Yes 64¢ $19 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $34.65 · official $34.34 (match) · 143 history records