Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T15:48:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
56 0x5645…e203 weather 1519 markets active 2h ago coverage 106d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy weather specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 105d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$112 (-3%) realized −$111 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -31% what you keep after slip
Net edge-31%after slip
Net WR26%break-even
Win rate27%384W / 1059L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day27.5pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$19now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$11
7 days+$14
14 days+$59
30 days+$84
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 51% −$40
weather 49% −$50
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +26%
net ROI/market (all)-19.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 38 +14.0% +3.2% 42% 42% +10.2%
≤30d 271 +11.1% +0.6% 39% 39% +7.0%
≤90d 1159 -20.6% -28.2% 20% 20% -35.7%
all 1443 -10.5% -19.0% 27% 26% -13.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover27.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -19.0% 26% -13.2%
10% ← realistic here -26.8% 25% -21.5%
15% -33.8% 18% -29.1%
20% -40.3% 17% -36.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -29% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -12% → late -9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$2 · ×2.59 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.95 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

106d coverage
Net worth$19
Realized−$111
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)27%
Wins / losses384 / 1059
Open positions13
Markets (closed)1443 / 1519
History coverage106d ⚠
Avg bet$2
Trades / day27.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 13 History 1443 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 19°C on June 16? Yes 45¢ 44¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 23°C on June 16? Yes 42¢ 40¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-4%)
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 30°C on June 16? Yes 30¢ 34¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+13%)
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 22°C on June 16? Yes 35¢ 33¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-6%)
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 29°C on June 16? Yes 38¢ 33¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-13%)
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 26°C on June 16? Yes 37¢ 32¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-15%)
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 26°C on June 16? Yes 32¢ 32¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-2%)
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 25°C on June 16? Yes 30¢ 30¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 28°C on June 16? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 27°C on June 16? Yes 14¢ 14¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 27°C on June 16? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+3%)
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 20°C on June 16? Yes 21¢ 20¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-5%)
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 24°C on June 16? Yes 16¢ 14¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-12%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 487 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 14? Jun 15 $2 +$3 +149%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 17°C on June 14? Jun 14 $2 +$3 +121%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 35°C on June 14? Jun 14 $2 +$3 +107%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 37°C on June 14? Jun 14 $2 +$3 +126%
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on June 14? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 36°C on June 14? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 32°C on June 14? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 31°C on June 14? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 16°C on June 14? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 25°C on June 12? Jun 13 $2 +$3 +222%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 90-91°F on June 12? Jun 13 $2 +$3 +126%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 27°C on June 12? Jun 12 $2 +$3 +112%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 18°C on June 12? Jun 12 $1 +$4 +319%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 37°C on June 12? Jun 12 $2 +$3 +112%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 35°C on June 12? Jun 12 $2 +$3 +222%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 24°C on June 12? Jun 11 $2 −$2 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 92-93°F on June 12? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 28°C on June 12? Jun 11 $2 −$2 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 34°C on June 12? Jun 11 $2 −$2 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 17°C on June 12? Jun 11 $2 −$2 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 19°C on June 12? Jun 11 $2 −$2 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 18°C on June 12? Jun 11 $2 −$2 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 25°C on June 10? Jun 11 $1 +$4 +257%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 90-91°F on June 10? Jun 11 $2 +$3 +103%
Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on June 10? Jun 11 $2 +$3 +185%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 17°C on June 10? Jun 10 $2 +$3 +131%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 25°C on June 10? Jun 10 $1 +$4 +286%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 40°C on June 10? Jun 10 $2 +$3 +155%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 24°C on June 10? Jun 09 $2 −$2 -97%
Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on June 10? Jun 09 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 88-89°F on June 10? Jun 09 $2 −$2 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 26°C on June 10? Jun 09 $1 −$1 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 24°C on June 10? Jun 09 $2 −$2 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 26°C on June 10? Jun 09 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 39°C or below on June 10? Jun 09 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 18°C on June 10? Jun 09 $2 −$2 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 18°C on June 10? Jun 09 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 16°C on June 10? Jun 09 $2 −$2 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 92-93°F on June 7? Jun 08 $2 +$3 +131%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 66-67°F on Ju Jun 08 $2 +$3 +222%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 23°C on June 7? Jun 08 $2 +$3 +155%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 90-91°F on June 7? Jun 08 $2 +$3 +169%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 24°C on June 7? Jun 07 $1 +$4 +257%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 29°C on June 7? Jun 07 $2 +$3 +126%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 30°C on June 7? Jun 06 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 29°C on June 7? Jun 06 $2 −$2 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 7? Jun 06 $2 −$2 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 88-89°F on June 7? Jun 06 $2 −$2 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 96-97°F on June 7? Jun 06 $1 −$1 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 90-91°F on June 7? Jun 06 $2 −$2 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 25°C on June 16? BUY Yes 30¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 27°C on June 16? BUY Yes 14¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 26°C on June 16? BUY Yes 32¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 28°C on June 16? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 27°C on June 16? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 26°C on June 16? BUY Yes 37¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 30°C on June 16? BUY Yes 30¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 29°C on June 16? BUY Yes 38¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 20°C on June 16? BUY Yes 21¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 19°C on June 16? BUY Yes 45¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 24°C on June 16? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 23°C on June 16? BUY Yes 42¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 22°C on June 16? BUY Yes 35¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on June 14? BUY Yes 23¢ $1 2d
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 14? BUY Yes 39¢ $2 2d
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 36°C on June 14? BUY Yes 18¢ $1 2d
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 35°C on June 14? BUY Yes 47¢ $2 2d
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 32°C on June 14? BUY Yes 26¢ $2 2d
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 31°C on June 14? BUY Yes 36¢ $2 2d
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 36°C on June 14? BUY Yes 18¢ $1 2d
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 37°C on June 14? BUY Yes 43¢ $2 2d
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 17°C on June 14? BUY Yes 44¢ $2 2d
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 16°C on June 14? BUY Yes 18¢ $1 2d
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 92-93°F on June 12? BUY Yes 34¢ $2 4d
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 90-91°F on June 12? BUY Yes 34¢ $2 4d
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 25°C on June 12? BUY Yes 30¢ $2 4d
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 24°C on June 12? BUY Yes 35¢ $2 4d
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 92-93°F on June 12? BUY Yes 27¢ $1 4d
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 90-91°F on June 12? BUY Yes 43¢ $2 4d
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 38°C on June 12? BUY Yes 22¢ $1 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $19.21 · official $19.21 (match) · 3500 history records