Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T19:45:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
56 0x5645…658b sports 45 markets active 2h ago coverage 195d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$148 (+4%) realized +$148 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -28% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -35% what you keep after slip
Net edge-35%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate31%14W / 31L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$79per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Fees−$15est.
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$23
7 days−$554
14 days−$554
30 days−$554
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 69% +$732
other 20% −$389
tech 9% −$263
world 3% −$32
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-34.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 29 -47.6% -52.6% 28% 28% -42.2%
≤30d 29 -47.6% -52.6% 28% 28% -42.2%
≤90d 29 -47.6% -52.6% 28% 28% -42.2%
all 45 -27.7% -34.6% 31% 31% -7.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -34.6% 31% -7.3%
10% -40.8% 31% -16.2%
15% -46.5% 29% -24.3%
20% -51.8% 22% -31.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 60% · top 2 69% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -38% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -28% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -8% → late -46% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$125 vs −$55 · ×2.28 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.03 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

195d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$148
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)31%
Wins / losses14 / 31
Est. fees paid−$15
Open positions0
Markets (closed)45 / 45
History coverage195d
Avg bet$79
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 45 Trades
no open positions (17 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 4.5 Jun 23 $25 −$17 -68%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: 1st Half O/U 5.5 Total Corners Jun 23 $30 +$11 +36%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 23 $20 +$15 +74%
Bruno Fernandes: 1+ assists Jun 23 $25 +$34 +134%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 23 $202 +$73 +36%
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 Uzbekistan? Jun 23 $19 −$19 -98%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 1 Uzbekistan? Jun 23 $11 −$11 -97%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 Uzbekistan? Jun 23 $3 −$3 -98%
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals Jun 23 $41 −$40 -98%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: Both Teams to Score Jun 23 $5 −$5 -98%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: Total Corners Odd or Even? Jun 23 $15 −$15 -99%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $31 −$31 -100%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $30 −$1 -2%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 22 $20 +$31 +152%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof Jun 21 $121 +$76 +63%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 3 Winner Jun 21 $46 −$40 -87%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner Jun 21 $88 −$61 -70%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner Jun 21 $41 −$10 -25%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla Jun 20 $246 −$227 -92%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner Jun 19 $91 −$25 -27%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner Jun 19 $36 −$20 -56%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 18 $61 −$60 -98%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 18 $10 −$10 -98%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 1 Winner Jun 18 $5 +$1 +25%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $122 +$70 +57%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Netanyahu out by June 30? Jun 17 $150 −$145 -97%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $121 −$102 -84%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $14 −$14 -97%
Netanyahu out by March 31? Mar 19 $50 −$50 -100%
Will To Lam be elected General Secretary of the Vietnamese Communist P Mar 19 $18 −$18 -100%
Will Phan Van Giang be elected General Secretary of the Vietnamese Com Mar 19 $50 −$50 -100%
Will OpenAI release a new frontier model on December 11? Mar 19 $204 −$204 -100%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Vitality - Map 1 Winner Mar 19 $100 −$100 -100%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Vitality (BO3) Mar 19 $160 −$160 -100%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FaZe (BO5) Jan 20 $109 −$109 -100%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs TheMongolz (BO3) Jan 20 $50 −$50 -100%
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026? Jan 19 $100 −$32 -32%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FaZe - Map 2 Winner Dec 15 $18 +$9 +47%
Counter-Strike: FaZe vs Natus Vincere (BO3) Dec 14 $763 +$1,046 +137%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Natus Vincere - Map 1 Winner Dec 13 $4 +$8 +170%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Natus Vincere (BO3) Dec 13 $50 +$150 +300%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FaZe (BO3) Dec 12 $54 +$139 +255%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) Dec 11 $70 +$82 +117%
Will OpenAI release a new frontier model by December 13? Dec 11 $100 −$59 -59%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: 1st Half O/U 5.5 Total Corners SELL Under 99¢ $41 1h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 61¢ $5 1h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 40¢ $20 1h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 9.5 Total Corners SELL Under 94¢ $35 1h
Bruno Fernandes: 1+ assists SELL Yes 95¢ $60 2h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) SELL Portugal 95¢ $275 2h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 69¢ $202 2h
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 Uzbekistan? BUY Yes 17¢ $4 4h
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 1 Uzbekistan? BUY Yes 8¢ $3 4h
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 1 Uzbekistan? BUY Yes 8¢ $5 4h
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 Uzbekistan? BUY Yes 16¢ $2 4h
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 Uzbekistan? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 4h
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 1 Uzbekistan? BUY Yes 8¢ $2 4h
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 1 Uzbekistan? BUY Yes 8¢ $1 4h
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 Uzbekistan? BUY Yes 17¢ $5 4h
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 Uzbekistan? BUY Yes 17¢ $10 4h
Bruno Fernandes: 1+ assists BUY Yes 39¢ $5 4h
Bruno Fernandes: 1+ assists BUY Yes 40¢ $20 4h
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals BUY No 41¢ $15 4h
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals BUY No 42¢ $10 4h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 38¢ $5 4h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: Total Corners Odd or Even? BUY Even 51¢ $15 5h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Under 53¢ $20 5h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: 1st Half O/U 5.5 Total Corners BUY Under 72¢ $30 5h
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals BUY No 41¢ $15 5h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY No 19¢ $10 25h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 13¢ $10 26h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Argentina 39¢ $10 26h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Argentina 39¢ $10 26h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 67¢ $20 26h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 187 history records