Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T19:20:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
56 0x5647…e8d5 other 63 markets active 1h ago coverage 269d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$322 (-33%) realized −$241 · open −$81
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -39% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -45% what you keep after slip
Net edge-45%after slip
Net WR19%break-even
Win rate25%12W / 36L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$16per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit44%portable
Net worth$231now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$5
7 days−$5
14 days−$32
30 days−$32
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 80% −$172
sports 8% −$26
politics 8% −$18
world 1% −$10
culture 1% +$1
crypto 1% −$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +19%
net ROI/market (all)-44.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤30d 6 -66.4% -69.6% 17% 0% -48.5%
≤90d 8 -61.8% -65.4% 25% 0% -49.2%
all 48 -39.0% -44.8% 25% 19% -24.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -44.8% 19% -24.9%
10% -50.1% 17% -32.1%
15% -54.9% 12% -38.7%
20% -59.4% 12% -44.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 66% · top 2 75% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -44% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
25% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -39% · $-wt -39% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -32% → late -46% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$7 · ×1.1 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.37 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

269d coverage
Net worth$231
Realized−$241
Unrealized−$81
Win rate (resolved)25%
Wins / losses12 / 36
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions15
Markets (closed)48 / 63
History coverage269d
Avg bet$16
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit44%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 15 History 48 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Yes 64¢ 64¢ $100 $101 +$1 (+1%)
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Yes 18¢ 61¢ $10 $33 +$23 (+229%)
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Yes 69¢ 68¢ $25 $25 −$0 (-1%)
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Yes 23¢ 22¢ $25 $23 −$2 (-7%)
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Yes 43¢ 42¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? Yes 24¢ 24¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-14%)
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Yes 23¢ 2¢ $100 $8 −$92 (-92%)
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Yes 6¢ 2¢ $10 $4 −$6 (-64%)
Will Ferrari be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Yes 21¢ 12¢ $5 $3 −$2 (-42%)
Will bitcoin hit $1m before GTA VI? No 52¢ 50¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-3%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 6¢ 5¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-9%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 13¢ 13¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-3%)
Will Arman Tsarukyan become UFC champion in 2026? Yes 29¢ 23¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-21%)
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-42%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 19 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 21 $5 −$5 -94%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 13 $20 −$20 -99%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 13 $20 $0 -2%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -98%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 13 $2 −$2 -98%
Will George Russell be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 13 $21 +$1 +4%
Will Sean Strickland become UFC champion in 2026? May 11 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 09 $1 $0 +4%
Netanyahu out by March 31? Mar 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 20-39 tweets from March 3 to March 10, 2026? Mar 04 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 0-19 tweets from March 3 to March 10, 2026? Mar 04 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the position of Supreme Leader of Iran be abolished? Mar 04 $1 −$1 -100%
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by March 31, 2026? Mar 01 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the US next strike Iran on March 1, 2026 (ET)? Feb 28 $3 −$3 -100%
Nothing Ever Happens: Khamenei Feb 28 $2 +$1 +56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Feb 13 $1 $0 +14%
Will Mercedes be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Feb 10 $20 +$2 +11%
Will Khamenei leave Iran by March 31? Feb 08 $1 −$1 -69%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? Feb 08 $1 −$1 -65%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jan 27 $20 −$3 -14%
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jan 26 $20 −$1 -7%
Will António José Seguro win the 2026 Portugal presidential election? Jan 25 $5 +$8 +155%
Will there be 8-10 inches of snow in NYC this weekend? Jan 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Will there be 6-8 inches of snow in NYC this weekend? Jan 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Luís Marques Mendes win the 2026 Portugal presidential election? Jan 14 $5 −$4 -84%
Will Trump say "Hannukah" or "Kwanzaa" at Christmas Tree Lighting on D Dec 20 $2 +$6 +317%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Dec 07 $140 −$100 -71%
Will Trump release the Epstein files by December 31? Dec 06 $20 −$3 -13%
Will Ciprian Ciucu be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Dec 06 $20 −$5 -23%
Will Daniel Baluta be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Dec 04 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Max Verstappen finish second in the 2025 Drivers Championship? Nov 23 $50 +$57 +114%
Will Oscar Piastri finish third in the 2025 F1 Drivers Championship? Nov 23 $10 +$2 +23%
Will Max Verstappen finish third in the 2025 F1 Drivers Championship? Nov 23 $11 +$3 +27%
Will Lando Norris finish third in the 2025 F1 Drivers Championship? Nov 08 $25 −$25 -100%
Will Andrew Cuomo win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Oct 30 $3 $0 +4%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Oct 30 $3 $0 -5%
Will George Russell finish third in the 2025 F1 Drivers Championship? Oct 26 $2 −$1 -61%
Will Max Verstappen win the 2025 F1 Mexican Grand Prix? Oct 26 $6 −$6 -94%
Will Sevilla win on 2025-11-01? Oct 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Will George Russell win the 2025 F1 Mexican Grand Prix? Oct 25 $2 −$2 -84%
Will Charles Leclerc win the 2025 F1 Mexican Grand Prix pole? Oct 25 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Zelenskyy and Putin not meet? Oct 23 $5 −$2 -31%
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Switzerland? Oct 20 $1 −$1 -67%
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in US? Oct 20 $1 −$1 -54%
Will Max Verstappen win the 2025 F1 United States Grand Prix? Oct 19 $10 +$6 +58%
Will Oscar Piastri win the 2025 F1 United States Grand Prix? Oct 19 $1 −$1 -96%
Will Max Verstappen win the 2025 F1 Singapore Grand Prix? Oct 05 $6 −$6 -99%
Will Bitcoin reach $116,000 September 22-28? Sep 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 64¢ $101 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $5 1h
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $10 1h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 11¢ $10 1h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 69¢ $25 1h
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $26 1h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 43¢ $10 1h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 2d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 6¢ $2 2d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 64¢ $20 7d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 19¢ $20 7d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 18¢ $20 7d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 45¢ $5 7d
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Alex Pereira 50¢ $2 8d
Will George Russell be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 78¢ $20 8d
Will Sean Strickland become UFC champion in 2026? BUY No 0¢ $2 41d
Will Arman Tsarukyan become UFC champion in 2026? BUY Yes 29¢ $1 41d
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL Yes 3¢ $1 43d
Netanyahu out by March 31? BUY Yes 5¢ $5 98d
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY Yes 6¢ $5 98d
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 98d
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL Yes 5¢ $10 98d
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL Yes 5¢ $9 98d
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY Yes 6¢ $10 98d
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY Yes 18¢ $10 98d
Will Ferrari be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY Yes 21¢ $5 105d
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 109d
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 109d
Will Elon Musk post 20-39 tweets from March 3 to March 10, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 109d
Will Elon Musk post 0-19 tweets from March 3 to March 10, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 109d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $230.76 · official $230.78 (match) · 117 history records