Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T01:57:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
56 0x5647…de1d weather 660 markets active 0h ago coverage 30d ⚠
BOTnot copyable weather specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 30d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (105 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$14,741 (-85%) realized −$14,605 · open −$136
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -18% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -37% what you keep after slip
Net edge-37%after slip
Net WR28%break-even
Win rate29%199W / 486L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$26per market
Trades / day105.4pace
Fees−$9est.
Kalshi-fit91%portable
Net worth$2,121now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 30d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 49% +$591
crypto 30% −$762
other 13% −$862
world 6% −$231
sports 2% +$256
politics 1% −$111
tech 0% −$20
culture 0% −$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (105 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +28%
net ROI/market (all)-25.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 407 -7.4% -16.2% 30% 29% -8.1%
≤30d 627 -17.7% -25.6% 28% 27% -22.2%
≤90d 685 -18.0% -25.8% 29% 28% -22.5%
all 685 -18.0% -25.8% 29% 28% -22.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover105.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -25.8% 28% -22.5%
10% ← realistic here -32.9% 26% -29.9%
15% -39.4% 25% -36.7%
20% -45.3% 24% -42.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -18% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -18% · $-wt -18% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -25% → late -11% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
4.8 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$36 vs −$21 · ×1.73 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.71 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

30d coverage
Net worth$2,121
Realized−$14,605
Unrealized−$136
Win rate (resolved)29%
Wins / losses199 / 486
Est. fees paid−$9
Open positions84
Markets (closed)685 / 660
History coverage30d ⚠
Avg bet$26
Trades / day105.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit91%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 84 History 685 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 24°C on June 19? Yes 28¢ 100¢ $33 $118 +$85 (+256%)
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 22°C on June 19? Yes 31¢ 100¢ $33 $106 +$73 (+222%)
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Yes 2¢ 15¢ $10 $87 +$77 (+774%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 19? Yes 43¢ 100¢ $33 $77 +$44 (+134%)
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 36°C on June 20? Yes 29¢ 32¢ $66 $71 +$5 (+7%)
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 34°C on June 20? Yes 39¢ 42¢ $66 $70 +$4 (+6%)
Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by December 31, 2026? Yes 33¢ 28¢ $60 $51 −$9 (-15%)
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 22°C on June 20? Yes 17¢ 26¢ $33 $49 +$16 (+48%)
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 25°C on June 20? Yes 29¢ 39¢ $33 $44 +$11 (+34%)
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 26°C on June 20? Yes 33¢ 44¢ $33 $44 +$10 (+32%)
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on June 20? Yes 66¢ 86¢ $33 $43 +$10 (+30%)
José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero sentenced to prison? Yes 6¢ 8¢ $30 $43 +$12 (+42%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 20? Yes 29¢ 38¢ $33 $42 +$9 (+28%)
Forsen to get signed by an LCK prog org by Jun 30? Yes 2¢ 4¢ $20 $39 +$19 (+93%)
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on June 20? Yes 49¢ 56¢ $33 $38 +$5 (+15%)
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 35°C on June 20? Yes 33¢ 38¢ $33 $38 +$4 (+14%)
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 28°C on June 20? Yes 85¢ 96¢ $33 $37 +$4 (+13%)
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 24°C on June 20? Yes 40¢ 44¢ $33 $37 +$4 (+12%)
Hantavirus vaccine in 2026? Yes 7¢ 6¢ $50 $37 −$13 (-26%)
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 31°C on June 20? Yes 42¢ 46¢ $33 $37 +$4 (+11%)
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 24°C on June 20? Yes 32¢ 35¢ $33 $36 +$3 (+9%)
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 27°C on June 20? Yes 42¢ 46¢ $33 $36 +$3 (+9%)
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 25°C on June 20? Yes 38¢ 42¢ $33 $36 +$3 (+8%)
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 15°C on June 20? Yes 46¢ 49¢ $33 $35 +$2 (+7%)
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 31°C on June 20? Yes 44¢ 46¢ $33 $34 +$1 (+3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 405 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: FC Barcelona 5 - 0 Real Madrid CF? Jun 20 $20 −$40 -200%
BNB Up or Down - May 17, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on May 11? Jun 20 $50 −$100 -200%
BNB Up or Down - May 17, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the Colorado Avalanche win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Jun 20 $4 −$4 -100%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $730 on May 20? Jun 20 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Austria win Eurovision 2026? Jun 20 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Italy win Eurovision 2026? Jun 20 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Serbia win Eurovision 2026? Jun 20 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Croatia win Eurovision 2026? Jun 20 $20 −$20 -100%
BNB Up or Down - May 17, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 20 $1 −$1 -100%
BNB Up or Down - May 17, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 20 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Will FC Barcelona vs. Real Madrid CF end in a draw? Jun 20 $40 −$80 -200%
BNB Up or Down - May 17, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - May 17, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 20 $1 −$1 -100%
BNB Up or Down - May 17, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - May 17, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 20 $2 −$2 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - May 17, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 20 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 5 to May 12, 2026? Jun 20 $20 −$40 -200%
Dogecoin Up or Down - May 17, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 20 $2 −$2 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - May 17, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Will "Mortal Kombat II" 2nd Weekend Box Office be between 20m and 23m? Jun 20 $7 −$7 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - May 17, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 20 $2 −$2 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - May 17, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 20 $0 $0 -100%
BNB Up or Down - May 17, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 20 $1 −$1 -100%
BNB Up or Down - May 17, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - May 17, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Will VOX (VOX) win the Andalusia regional election? Jun 20 $6 −$6 -100%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1T? Jun 20 $20 −$20 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - May 17, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Exact Score: FC Barcelona 4 - 1 Real Madrid CF? Jun 20 $20 −$40 -200%
Dogecoin Up or Down - May 17, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 20 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Lionel Scaloni be appointed as manager of Real Madrid? Jun 20 $10 −$10 -100%
Exact Score: FC Barcelona 3 - 1 Real Madrid CF? Jun 20 $20 −$40 -200%
Will Ukraine win Eurovision 2026? Jun 20 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Estonia win Eurovision 2026? Jun 20 $15 −$30 -200%
Will Wells Fargo or any of its underwriting affiliates serve as the le Jun 20 $5 −$5 -100%
BNB Up or Down - May 17, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - May 17, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 20 $0 $0 -100%
Will Deutsche Bank or any of its underwriting affiliates serve as the Jun 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Exact Score: FC Barcelona 3 - 2 Real Madrid CF? Jun 20 $20 −$40 -200%
Dogecoin Up or Down - May 17, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 20 $2 −$2 -100%
Trump endorses China's claim to Taiwan this week? Jun 20 $40 −$40 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - May 17, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 20 $2 −$2 -100%
Will RC Celta de Vigo win on 2026-05-12? Jun 20 $20 −$40 -200%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 5 to May 12, 2026? Jun 20 $10 −$20 -200%
Jimmy Kimmel fired/resigns by May 31? Jun 20 $16 −$16 -100%
BNB Up or Down - May 17, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-05-10? Jun 20 $100 −$200 -200%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 31°C on June 20? BUY Yes 26¢ $34 18m
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 36°C on June 20? BUY Yes 32¢ $34 18m
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 24°C on June 20? BUY Yes 40¢ $34 18m
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 32°C on June 20? BUY Yes 32¢ $34 18m
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 20? BUY Yes 31¢ $34 18m
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 30°C on June 20? BUY Yes 20¢ $34 1h
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 34°C on June 20? BUY Yes 43¢ $34 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 20? BUY Yes 29¢ $34 2h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 20? BUY Yes 29¢ $34 2h
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 22°C on June 20? BUY Yes 17¢ $34 2h
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 34°C on June 20? BUY Yes 21¢ $34 2h
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 34°C on June 20? BUY Yes 36¢ $34 2h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 34°C on June 20? BUY Yes 17¢ $34 3h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 20? BUY Yes 45¢ $34 3h
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 25°C on June 20? BUY Yes 38¢ $34 3h
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 31°C on June 20? BUY Yes 44¢ $34 3h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 20? BUY Yes 24¢ $34 3h
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 27°C on June 20? BUY Yes 42¢ $34 3h
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 15°C on June 20? BUY Yes 46¢ $34 3h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 28°C on June 20? BUY Yes 85¢ $33 4h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on June 20? BUY Yes 49¢ $34 6h
Will the highest temperature in London be 27°C on June 20? BUY Yes 42¢ $34 7h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on June 20? BUY Yes 66¢ $34 7h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 31°C on June 20? BUY Yes 42¢ $34 8h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 33°C on June 20? BUY Yes 34¢ $34 8h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 35°C on June 20? BUY Yes 33¢ $34 8h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 31°C on June 20? BUY Yes 20¢ $34 8h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 38°C on June 20? BUY Yes 41¢ $34 8h
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 25°C on June 20? BUY Yes 37¢ $34 8h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 26°C on June 20? BUY Yes 33¢ $34 8h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,120.62 · official $2,119.91 (match) · 3500 history records