Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T22:56:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
56 0x5649…7d4f other 147 markets active 2h ago coverage 134d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$5 (-0%) realized −$5 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate12%17W / 127L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$271per market
Trades / day2.7pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit65%portable
Net worth$116now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$1
14 days−$2
30 days−$6
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 45% −$20
politics 35% −$19
sports 12% +$30
crypto 3% −$2
economics 3% −$1
tech 1% $0
finance 0% $0
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-10.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 18 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 106 -0.1% -9.6% 4% 0% -9.6%
all 144 -0.5% -10.0% 12% 5% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.0% 5% -9.5%
10% -18.6% 4% -18.2%
15% -26.5% 2% -26.1%
20% -33.7% 1% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 34% · top 2 51% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
59% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -1% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$1 · ×6.63 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.89 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

134d coverage
Net worth$116
Realized−$5
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)12%
Wins / losses17 / 127
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions3
Markets (closed)144 / 147
History coverage134d
Avg bet$271
Trades / day2.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit65%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 144 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of June? No 100¢ 100¢ $46 $46 −$0 (-0%)
Will XRP reach $2.60 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $36 $36 −$0 (-0%)
Will Ethereum reach $2,600 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $34 $34 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 22 $282 $0 -0%
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 21 $43 $0 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 20 $588 −$1 -0%
Will the Cleveland Browns win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 19 $47 $0 -0%
Will Darren Jones be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in Jun 15 $46 $0 -0%
Will 7 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 12 $42 $0 -0%
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 09 $30 $0 -0%
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 09 $315 $0 -0%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 08 $591 −$1 -0%
Will Rand Paul win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 08 $301 −$1 -0%
Will Michael Younger win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 06 $37 $0 -0%
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 31 $26 $0 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 31 $44 $0 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 30 $775 −$1 -0%
Will Stephen Cloobeck win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 27 $281 $0 -0%
Will Kyle Langford win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 25 $275 $0 -0%
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? May 25 $261 $0 -0%
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 24 $230 $0 -0%
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 23 $556 −$1 -0%
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 23 $212 $0 -0%
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 22 $732 −$1 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 22 $516 −$1 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 21 $237 $0 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 21 $543 −$1 -0%
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 21 $610 −$1 -0%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 20 $222 $0 -0%
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? May 19 $308 $0 -0%
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? May 18 $258 $0 -0%
Will Carlos Felipe Córdoba win the 2026 Colombian presidential electio May 17 $213 $0 -0%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 15 $260 $0 -0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 13 $234 $0 -0%
Will Germany win Eurovision 2026? May 13 $306 $0 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 13 $554 −$1 -0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 11 $212 $0 -0%
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 10 $302 $0 -0%
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 10 $300 −$1 -0%
Will Tony Thurmond win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 10 $286 $0 -0%
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 07 $214 $0 -0%
Will Panama win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 06 $244 $0 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 05 $294 $0 -0%
Will the New Orleans Saints win the 2027 NFL league championship? May 04 $232 $0 -0%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 04 $230 $0 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 03 $805 −$1 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 02 $232 $0 -0%
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 02 $320 $0 -0%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 01 $514 −$1 -0%
Will Carlos Roberto Massa Júnior win the 2026 Brazilian presidential e May 01 $242 $0 -0%
Will the St. Louis Cardinals win the 2026 World Series? May 01 $257 $0 -0%
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 30 $294 $0 -0%
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 30 $222 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will XRP reach $2.60 in June? BUY No 100¢ $36 1h
Will Ethereum reach $2,600 in June? BUY No 100¢ $34 1h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of June? BUY No 100¢ $46 2h
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $45 20h
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $45 29h
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $43 45h
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $43 2d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $39 2d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $39 2d
Will the Cleveland Browns win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $47 3d
Will the Cleveland Browns win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $47 7d
Will Darren Jones be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in SELL No 100¢ $46 7d
Will Darren Jones be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in BUY No 100¢ $46 8d
Will 7 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $42 10d
Will 7 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $42 11d
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $30 13d
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $30 13d
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $36 13d
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $36 14d
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $36 14d
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $36 14d
Will Rand Paul win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $28 14d
Will Rand Paul win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $28 15d
Will Michael Younger win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $37 16d
Will Michael Younger win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $37 16d
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $26 22d
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $26 22d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $44 22d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $44 23d
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $34 23d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $115.89 · official $115.89 (match) · 426 history records