Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T05:39:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
56 0x564a…8871 weather 596 markets active 0h ago coverage 14d ⚠
BOTnot copyable weather specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 14d only
✗ bot/MM pace (233 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$973 (+2%) realized +$967 · open +$6
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate95%544W / 31L
Drawdown25%max
Avg bet$81per market
Trades / day233.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$994now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$24
7 days+$204
14 days+$476
30 days+$520
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 100% +$526
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (233 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-7.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 291 +1.1% -8.5% 96% 1% -8.7%
≤30d 575 +2.5% -7.3% 95% 2% -8.5%
≤90d 575 +2.5% -7.3% 95% 2% -8.5%
all 575 +2.5% -7.3% 95% 2% -8.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover233.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -7.3% 2% -8.5%
10% ← realistic here -16.2% 2% -17.3%
15% -24.3% 2% -25.3%
20% -31.7% 1% -32.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
98% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +4% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$22 · ×0.1 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.8 per $1 lost it wins $1.8
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

14d coverage
Net worth$994
Realized+$967
Unrealized+$6
Win rate (resolved)95%
Wins / losses544 / 31
Open positions21
Markets (closed)575 / 596
History coverage14d ⚠
Avg bet$81
Trades / day233.0
Drawdown25%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 21 History 575 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 18°C on June 18? No 98¢ 100¢ $281 $286 +$6 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 29°C on June 18? No 99¢ 99¢ $102 $102 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on June 18? No 99¢ 99¢ $102 $102 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 21°C on June 18? No 99¢ 99¢ $68 $68 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 37°C on June 18? No 99¢ 99¢ $67 $67 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 33°C on June 18? No 99¢ 99¢ $54 $54 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on June 19? No 99¢ 99¢ $51 $51 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 29°C on June 19? No 99¢ 99¢ $46 $46 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 32°C on June 19? No 97¢ 95¢ $32 $31 −$1 (-3%)
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 28°C or below on June 20? No 98¢ 98¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 28°C or higher on June 19? No 99¢ 99¢ $29 $30 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 29°C or below on June 19? No 99¢ 99¢ $26 $26 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C or higher on June 20? No 99¢ 99¢ $25 $25 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 36°C or higher on June 18? No 99¢ 99¢ $24 $24 +$0 (+0%)
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 23°C on June 18? No 99¢ 97¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-2%)
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be 61°F or below on June 19? No 99¢ 99¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 20°C on June 19? No 99¢ 99¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 27°C on June 20? No 99¢ 99¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 20°C on June 20? No 99¢ 99¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 30°C or below on June 19? No 99¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 28°C on June 18? No 99¢ 100¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 28°C on June 19? Jun 18 $45 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 37°C on June 18? Jun 18 $185 −$43 -23%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 33°C or higher on June 18 Jun 18 $120 +$5 +4%
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 86-87°F on June 18? Jun 18 $16 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 38°C on June 18? Jun 18 $270 −$4 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on June 18? Jun 18 $316 +$6 +2%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 17°C on June 19? Jun 18 $54 $0 +1%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 20°C on June 19? Jun 18 $11 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 29°C on June 18? Jun 18 $361 +$8 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 32°C on June 18? Jun 18 $8 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on June 18? Jun 18 $136 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 34°C on June 18? Jun 18 $98 +$2 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 35°C on June 18? Jun 18 $10 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 28°C on June 18? Jun 17 $62 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 25°C on June 18? Jun 17 $65 +$2 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 66-67°F on June 17? Jun 17 $117 +$2 +1%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 76-77°F on Ju Jun 17 $20 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 17°C on June 17? Jun 17 $163 +$8 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 16°C on June 17? Jun 17 $8 +$13 +161%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 65°F or below on June 17? Jun 17 $117 +$2 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 32°C or below on June 18? Jun 17 $27 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 31°C on June 17? Jun 17 $84 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 84-85°F on June 17? Jun 17 $73 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 80-81°F on June 17? Jun 17 $79 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 15°C on June 17? Jun 17 $377 −$10 -3%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on June 18? Jun 17 $30 $0 +1%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 17°C on June 18? Jun 17 $50 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on June 18? Jun 17 $50 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 86-87°F on June 17? Jun 17 $612 +$15 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 18°C on June 17? Jun 17 $15 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be 63°F or below on June Jun 17 $15 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 29°C on June 17? Jun 17 $317 +$6 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 20°C on June 17? Jun 17 $84 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 20°C on June 17? Jun 17 $46 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 19°C on June 17? Jun 17 $42 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 19°C on June 17? Jun 17 $44 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 27°C or below on June 17? Jun 17 $121 +$2 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 26°C on June 17? Jun 17 $57 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on June 17? Jun 17 $7 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 29°C on June 18? Jun 17 $76 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 20°C on June 17? Jun 17 $56 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on June 17? Jun 17 $237 +$3 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 38°C or higher on June 17? Jun 17 $126 +$6 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 38°C on June 17? Jun 17 $69 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 25°C on June 17? Jun 17 $5 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 35°C on June 18? Jun 17 $108 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 37°C on June 17? Jun 17 $67 −$65 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 26°C or below on June 18? Jun 17 $5 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 17? Jun 17 $5 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 29°C on June 17? Jun 17 $48 −$33 -70%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 28°C on June 19? SELL No 100¢ $45 1m
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 29°C on June 18? BUY No 98¢ $51 4m
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 29°C on June 18? BUY No 99¢ $51 4m
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on June 18? BUY No 98¢ $14 5m
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on June 18? BUY No 99¢ $37 5m
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on June 18? BUY No 99¢ $51 5m
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on June 19? BUY No 99¢ $51 8m
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 29°C or below on June 19? BUY No 99¢ $26 10m
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 21°C on June 18? BUY No 98¢ $10 12m
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 27°C on June 20? BUY No 99¢ $5 13m
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C or higher on June 20? BUY No 99¢ $26 16m
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 20°C on June 20? BUY No 99¢ $5 16m
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 23°C on June 18? BUY No 99¢ $20 20m
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 37°C on June 18? SELL No 70¢ $50 20m
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be 61°F or below on June BUY No 99¢ $10 22m
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 37°C on June 18? SELL No 68¢ $5 26m
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 37°C on June 18? SELL No 68¢ $5 27m
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 28°C or higher on June BUY No 99¢ $29 28m
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 33°C or higher on June 18 SELL No 100¢ $72 35m
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 33°C or higher on June 18 SELL No 100¢ $4 36m
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 33°C or higher on June 18 SELL No 100¢ $48 36m
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 20°C on June 19? BUY No 99¢ $10 36m
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 28°C on June 19? BUY No 99¢ $45 39m
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 29°C or below on June 19? SELL No 100¢ $4 39m
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 29°C or below on June 19? SELL No 100¢ $20 39m
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 86-87°F on June 18? SELL No 100¢ $16 43m
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 28°C or below on June 20? BUY No 98¢ $10 1h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 28°C or below on June 20? BUY No 98¢ $10 1h
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 38°C on June 18? SELL No 97¢ $114 1h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 28°C or below on June 20? BUY No 99¢ $10 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $993.58 · official $993.22 (match) · 3500 history records