Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T17:19:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
56 0x564a…af9b world 502 markets active 1h ago coverage 127d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 127d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$149 (-2%) realized −$134 · open −$15
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate45%203W / 244L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$13per market
Trades / day26.4pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$178now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2
7 days−$8
14 days−$3
30 days+$10
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 50% −$19
other 20% +$24
sports 11% −$117
politics 8% +$7
tech 5% −$1
crypto 5% $0
economics 1% −$7
finance 0% −$4
weather 0% −$2
culture 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-10.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 78 -1.7% -11.0% 50% 37% -10.3%
≤30d 221 +1.5% -8.1% 50% 35% -7.9%
≤90d 309 +2.7% -7.1% 50% 29% -9.5%
all 447 -1.2% -10.6% 45% 25% -11.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover26.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.6% 25% -11.0%
10% ← realistic here -19.1% 21% -19.5%
15% -26.9% 17% -27.3%
20% -34.1% 13% -34.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
43% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.7 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$2 · ×0.97 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.82 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

127d coverage
Net worth$178
Realized−$134
Unrealized−$15
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses203 / 244
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions56
Markets (closed)447 / 502
History coverage127d ⚠
Avg bet$13
Trades / day26.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 56 History 447 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? No 83¢ 97¢ $8 $10 +$1 (+17%)
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31? No 88¢ 92¢ $9 $9 +$0 (+5%)
Will Robert Kenyon win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? No 79¢ 94¢ $6 $7 +$1 (+19%)
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Yes 71¢ 84¢ $6 $7 +$1 (+18%)
Will OpenAI IPO by December 31 2026? Yes 45¢ 54¢ $6 $7 +$1 (+19%)
Will AfD win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections? No 76¢ 84¢ $6 $7 +$1 (+10%)
Will MegaETH perform an airdrop by June 30? No 87¢ 99¢ $6 $7 +$1 (+14%)
Will Neymar score 1+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 63¢ 69¢ $6 $6 +$1 (+11%)
Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by December 31? Yes 34¢ 33¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-2%)
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? No 76¢ 78¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+2%)
OpenAI IPO before 2027? No 50¢ 46¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-7%)
Metamask FDV above $100M one day after launch? No 62¢ 74¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+18%)
Will Russia invade another country in 2026? No 88¢ 90¢ $5 $6 +$0 (+3%)
US strike on Cuba by December 31? No 48¢ 48¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+1%)
Will Solana dip to $60 by December 31, 2026? No 37¢ 27¢ $7 $5 −$2 (-27%)
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? No 93¢ 100¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+7%)
Will the US strike 8 countries in 2026? Yes 31¢ 33¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+6%)
US recognizes Reza Pahlavi as leader of Iran in 2026? No 87¢ 96¢ $4 $5 +$0 (+10%)
Fed rate hike in 2026? No 52¢ 46¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-10%)
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes 27¢ 26¢ $5 $4 −$0 (-7%)
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by June 30? No 70¢ 68¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-2%)
Will OpenAI not IPO by December 31, 2026? Yes 54¢ 47¢ $4 $4 −$1 (-13%)
Will Folarin Balogun be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 97¢ 97¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+0%)
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? No 70¢ 68¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-3%)
Will Mary Peltola win the Alaska Senate race in 2026? Yes 61¢ 62¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 59 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the Buffalo Bills win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 18 $2 $0 -17%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? Jun 18 $3 $0 +2%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Jun 18 $5 $0 +7%
Will San Diego Padres win the 2026 National League Championship Series Jun 18 $1 $0 -22%
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) Jun 18 $6 +$4 +70%
Will J.D. Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30? Jun 17 $1 $0 -5%
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 Jun 17 $21 $0 -2%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -97%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 17 $3 $0 -0%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $1 $0 -43%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $6 −$6 -98%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? Jun 17 $2 −$1 -56%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $1 −$1 -48%
Will Iran close its airspace by August 31? Jun 17 $6 −$1 -26%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? Jun 17 $4 −$1 -37%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 17 $9 +$3 +38%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ju Jun 17 $11 +$2 +17%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 17 $3 −$1 -23%
Norway leading at halftime? Jun 17 $3 +$2 +62%
Will the US government rescind its ban on all foreign use of Claude Fa Jun 16 $1 $0 -8%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $10 +$4 +37%
Will SpaceX acquire Cursor by December 31, 2026? Jun 16 $13 $0 +2%
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? Jun 16 $5 +$1 +25%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $10 −$5 -48%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $6 −$6 -99%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1 $0 +2%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $1 −$1 -99%
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30? Jun 15 $11 $0 +1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 15 $16 −$1 -4%
Will Trump speak to Ahmed al-Sharaa in June? Jun 15 $6 +$2 +37%
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $1 $0 +0%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $3 −$3 -98%
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.5T by June 30? Jun 15 $10 +$3 +27%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14? Jun 15 $5 +$1 +27%
US-Iran nuclear deal by July 31? Jun 15 $5 +$7 +122%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $1 −$1 -99%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1 +$1 +97%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $95 by end of June? Jun 14 $1 $0 +0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? Jun 14 $20 +$7 +35%
Will George Russell win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? Jun 14 $1 +$4 +365%
Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? Jun 14 $1 $0 +11%
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs BetBoom Team (+1.5) Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Spread: Germany (-5.5) Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $1 +$1 +140%
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs 9z (+1.5) Jun 14 $1 +$2 +172%
Brazil vs. Morocco: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $3 +$2 +62%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $1 $0 +6%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $1 −$1 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by December 31? BUY Yes 33¢ $1 54m
U.S. agrees to give Ukraine security guarantee by December 31? BUY Yes 25¢ $1 1h
Will the Buffalo Bills win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL Yes $2 2h
Billionaire one-time wealth tax on California ballot? BUY Yes 82¢ $2 3h
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? SELL No 95¢ $3 4h
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 95¢ $1 5h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL No 61¢ $3 5h
Billionaire one-time wealth tax on California ballot? BUY Yes 76¢ $4 7h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY No 61¢ $3 8h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1 9h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1 9h
Will San Diego Padres win the 2026 National League Championship Series SELL Yes $0 10h
Will San Diego Padres win the 2026 National League Championship Series SELL Yes $1 10h
Will San Diego Padres win the 2026 National League Championship Series SELL Yes $0 10h
Will Folarin Balogun be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 97¢ $4 11h
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) BUY Colombia 55¢ $3 14h
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) BUY Colombia 61¢ $3 14h
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? BUY No 12¢ $1 14h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY BetBoom Team 46¢ $1 16h
Will OpenAI not IPO by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 54¢ $2 16h
Will OpenAI not IPO by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 54¢ $2 16h
Will J.D. Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30? SELL No 17¢ $0 18h
Will J.D. Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30? SELL No 16¢ $1 18h
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 SELL Yes 64¢ $1 18h
Will J.D. Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30? BUY No 17¢ $1 18h
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 SELL Yes 65¢ $3 18h
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 SELL Yes 63¢ $3 19h
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 BUY Yes 55¢ $2 20h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes $1 20h
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 79¢ $3 21h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $177.68 · official $177.19 (match) · 3500 history records