Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T16:53:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
56 0x564d…cb16 world 21 markets active 1h ago coverage 455d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$1 (+0%) realized +$1 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate52%11W / 10L
Drawdown30%max
Avg bet$22per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$1
14 days+$1
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 60% +$1
other 21% $0
sports 8% $0
politics 8% $0
economics 3% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +0.1% -9.5% 25% 0% -9.2%
≤30d 10 +0.3% -9.3% 40% 0% -9.2%
≤90d 10 +0.3% -9.3% 40% 0% -9.2%
all 21 +0.2% -9.4% 52% 0% -9.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.4% 0% -9.2%
10% -18.0% 0% -17.9%
15% -26.0% 0% -25.9%
20% -33.2% 0% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 49% · top 2 66% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.96 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×2.63 per $1 lost it wins $2.63
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

455d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses11 / 10
Open positions0
Markets (closed)21 / 21
History coverage455d
Avg bet$22
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown30%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 21 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 19 $39 $0 +0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 19 $11 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? Jun 18 $40 −$1 -2%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 18 $63 +$1 +2%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 03 $21 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 03 $81 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 31 $38 $0 +1%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 30 $18 $0 +2%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 29 $5 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 28 $38 $0 -0%
Will the New England Patriots win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 17 $2 $0 -3%
Will HNP win the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the 2 Jun 24 $10 $0 +1%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after June 2025 meeting? Jun 19 $2 $0 +1%
Will Lee Jae-myung win 2nd place in the South Korean presidential elec May 08 $2 $0 +0%
Will Trump impose film tariff by Friday? May 08 $12 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 300–324 times May 2–9? May 07 $12 $0 +0%
Will Trump announce Kevin Warsh as next Fed Chair? May 07 $11 $0 -0%
Will Marcela-Lavinia Șandru advance to the Romanian Presidential Elect May 07 $13 $0 +1%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2025 NBA Finals? Mar 28 $13 $0 +1%
Will Atalanta win the Serie A? Mar 22 $13 $0 +0%
Will Bayer Leverkusen win the Bundesliga? Mar 21 $13 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 89¢ $26 1h
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 89¢ $13 1h
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 89¢ $39 1h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 14¢ $6 12h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 14¢ $5 12h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 14¢ $1 12h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 14¢ $11 16h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? SELL No 73¢ $12 20h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? SELL No 73¢ $28 20h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? BUY No 74¢ $11 23h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? BUY No 74¢ $29 23h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 45¢ $25 40h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 43¢ $24 47h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 49¢ $21 15d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 49¢ $21 16d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL Yes $1 16d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY Yes $1 16d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 96¢ $27 17d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 96¢ $3 17d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 96¢ $9 17d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 96¢ $38 17d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 52¢ $38 18d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 52¢ $38 19d
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? SELL No 99¢ $39 19d
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? BUY No 98¢ $38 19d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? SELL Yes $2 20d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? BUY Yes $2 20d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? SELL Yes $1 20d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? SELL Yes $4 20d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? BUY Yes $1 20d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 68 history records