Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T09:16:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

56
0x564f…7034
other · 37 markets active 26d ago
0.0score
−$3,204 -21%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$3,204 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
~ RISKY ⚠ High turnover⚠ Wins small, loses big
Copy trade Watchlist
Net worth$0
Realized−$3,204
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)76%
Wins / losses28 / 9
Whale WR (big bets)33%
Open positions0
Markets (closed)37 / 37
Avg bet$420
Trades / day43.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit49%
Chart Positions 0 History 37 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Finland win Eurovision 2026? Yes 32¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will Italy win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $2,897 $0 −$2,897 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Finland win Eurovision 2026? May 16 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Italy win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 30 $3,223 −$2,742 -85%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of March 2026? Mar 26 $4,737 −$1,775 -38%
Will Butterfly win Best Animated Short Film at the 98th Academy Awards Mar 26 $25 −$25 -100%
Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of March 2026? Mar 26 $148 +$236 +159%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of March 2026? Mar 26 $6 −$6 -90%
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of March 2026? Mar 26 $751 +$296 +39%
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of March 2026? Mar 26 $3,866 −$1,652 -43%
Will Google have the best AI model for math on March 31? Mar 26 $19 +$18 +95%
Will F1 win Best Sound at the 98th Academy Awards? Mar 16 $57 +$15 +27%
Will Michael B. Jordan win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards? Mar 16 $50 +$45 +89%
Will One Battle After Another win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awa Mar 16 $80 +$20 +25%
Will Sean Penn win Best Supporting Actor at the 98th Academy Awards? Mar 16 $100 +$27 +27%
Will Amy Madigan win Best Supporting Actress at the 98th Academy Award Mar 16 $48 +$43 +89%
Will OpenAI have a #1 AI model by June 30? Mar 15 $33 +$358 +1091%
Will Cyprus win Eurovision 2026? Mar 09 $389 +$79 +20%
Will Denmark win Eurovision 2026? Mar 07 $562 −$121 -22%
Will Croatia win Eurovision 2026? Mar 07 $123 +$90 +74%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 06 $901 +$635 +70%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Mar 04 $3 +$117 +4020%
Will DeepSeek have the best AI model for coding on March 31? Mar 03 $1 +$81 +8449%
Will Georgia win Eurovision 2026? Mar 03 $5 +$12 +224%
Will Luxembourg win Eurovision 2026? Mar 03 $4 +$37 +936%
Will Romania win Eurovision 2026? Mar 03 $21 +$139 +664%
Will Switzerland win Eurovision 2026? Mar 03 $20 +$13 +65%
Will Czechia win Eurovision 2026? Mar 03 $17 +$49 +299%
Will Germany win Eurovision 2026? Mar 03 $106 +$31 +29%
Will Italy win Eurovision 2026? Mar 03 $54 −$19 -34%
Will Armenia win Eurovision 2026? Mar 03 $14 +$18 +128%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model for coding on March 31? Mar 03 $4 +$267 +5923%
Will Portugal win Eurovision 2026? Mar 02 $14 +$83 +616%
Will Ukraine win Eurovision 2026? Mar 02 $46 +$100 +219%
Will Bulgaria win Eurovision 2026? Mar 01 $57 +$109 +191%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Mar 01 $7 +$42 +602%
Will Norway win Eurovision 2026? Feb 28 $30 +$41 +138%
Will Serbia win Eurovision 2026? Feb 28 $9 +$143 +1515%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of February 2026? Feb 27 $18 −$7 -38%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
tech 62% −$2,025
other 36% −$1,403
culture 2% +$124
world 0% +$100
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Finland win Eurovision 2026? BUY Yes 32¢ $2 26d
Will Italy win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 3¢ $0 73d
Will Italy win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 77d
Will Italy win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $3 77d
Will Italy win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $6 77d
Will Italy win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $12 77d
Will Italy win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $46 77d
Will Italy win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $3 77d
Will Italy win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $23 77d
Will Italy win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $20 77d
Will Italy win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $12 77d
Will Italy win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $34 77d
Will Italy win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 77d
Will Italy win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $22 77d
Will Italy win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $22 77d
Will Italy win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 77d
Will Italy win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $21 77d
Will Italy win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $12 77d
Will Italy win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $12 77d
Will Italy win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $12 77d
Will Italy win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $7 77d
Will Italy win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $104 77d
Will Italy win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $115 77d
Will Google be the first company to have an AI model hit 1550 on Chatb SELL Yes 7¢ $5 77d
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of March 2026? SELL No 1¢ $40 77d
Will DeepSeek be the first company to have an AI model hit 1550 on Cha SELL Yes 0¢ $2 78d
Will Google have the best AI model for coding on March 31? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 78d
Will xAI have the best AI model for math on March 31? SELL Yes 0¢ $3 78d
Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of March 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 78d
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of March 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $1 78d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +76%
net ROI/market (all)+305.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 1 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤90d 15 +78.5% +61.5% 60% 60% -45.8%
all 37 +348.0% +305.3% 76% 76% -30.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover43.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +305.3% 76% -30.3%
10% ← realistic here +266.5% 73% -37.0%
15% +231.1% 62% -43.1%
20% +198.6% 59% -48.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records