Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T06:01:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
56 0x564f…d93b other 156 markets active 0h ago coverage 36d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$447 (-0%) realized −$447 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -36% what you keep after slip
Net edge-36%after slip
Net WR22%break-even
Win rate37%57W / 99L
Whale WR51%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$630per market
Trades / day45.7pace
Fees−$1,373est.
Kalshi-fit48%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$793
7 days−$2,433
14 days−$954
30 days+$226
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 50% +$1,262
sports 50% −$3,143
crypto 1% +$334
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +22%
net ROI/market (all)-22.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 50 -37.9% -43.8% 34% 18% -14.5%
≤30d 127 -18.1% -25.9% 37% 23% -9.0%
≤90d 156 -13.9% -22.1% 37% 22% -10.7%
all 156 -13.9% -22.1% 37% 22% -10.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover45.7 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -22.1% 22% -10.7%
10% -29.6% 15% -19.3%
15% ← realistic here -36.4% 12% -27.1%
20% -42.6% 8% -34.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 32% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
35% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -14% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 51% (≥$684) neutral
Persistence
early +2% → late -30% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
6.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$213 vs −$138 · ×1.54 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.89 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

36d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$447
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)37%
Wins / losses57 / 99
Whale WR (big bets)51%
Est. fees paid−$1,373
Open positions0
Markets (closed)156 / 156
History coverage36d
Avg bet$630
Trades / day45.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit48%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 156 Trades
no open positions (35 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 4.5 Jun 21 $5,603 +$16 +0%
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 Jun 21 $6 $0 +2%
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $51 −$1 -3%
Tunisia vs. Japan: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 21 $2,714 −$212 -8%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $1,180 +$693 +59%
UD Almería vs. Málaga CF: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $3,001 −$3,000 -100%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 5.5 Jun 20 $450 −$68 -15%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $2,527 +$358 +14%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $102 −$100 -98%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $580 −$189 -32%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $1,113 −$672 -60%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $944 +$161 +17%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $204 +$18 +9%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $1,672 +$123 +7%
Brazil vs. Haiti: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 20 $100 −$100 -100%
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $21 −$20 -97%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $6,814 +$2,201 +32%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 4.5 Jun 18 $700 −$699 -100%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $2,137 +$149 +7%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $485 +$54 +11%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $2,194 −$121 -6%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $708 +$32 +4%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 3.5 Jun 18 $82 −$37 -45%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $101 −$100 -99%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $22 −$22 -100%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 Jun 17 $25 −$25 -100%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $126 −$125 -99%
England vs. Croatia: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $2,444 +$345 +14%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $729 +$2 +0%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $51 −$51 -100%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $90 −$88 -98%
Argentina vs. Algeria: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $1,650 −$161 -10%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $351 +$50 +14%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $50 −$50 -99%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $1,421 −$264 -19%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $140 −$140 -100%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $52 −$50 -97%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $716 −$59 -8%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $7 $0 +6%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $793 −$34 -4%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $7 −$7 -97%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $26 −$25 -97%
Will CF Universidad de Chile win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $633 −$60 -10%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $50 −$50 -100%
CD Unión La Calera vs. CF Universidad de Chile: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 5.5 Jun 14 $76 −$75 -99%
Will CD Concepción win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $594 $0 +0%
CD Concepción vs. CD Limache: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $21 +$3 +13%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 4.5 SELL Under 66¢ $974 16m
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 4.5 SELL Under 68¢ $1,510 16m
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 4.5 SELL Under 67¢ $8 16m
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 4.5 SELL Under 67¢ $136 16m
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 4.5 SELL Under 67¢ $2 16m
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 4.5 SELL Under 67¢ $344 16m
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 4.5 SELL Under 67¢ $1,000 16m
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 4.5 SELL Under 67¢ $1,643 16m
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 4.5 SELL Under 69¢ $2 16m
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 66¢ $2,801 18m
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 67¢ $2,801 18m
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 52¢ $6 32m
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 50¢ $6 32m
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 15¢ $50 1h
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 15¢ $23 1h
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 15¢ $28 1h
Tunisia vs. Japan: 1st Half O/U 0.5 SELL Over 65¢ $1 1h
Tunisia vs. Japan: 1st Half O/U 0.5 SELL Over 65¢ $2 1h
Tunisia vs. Japan: 1st Half O/U 0.5 SELL Over 65¢ $708 1h
Tunisia vs. Japan: 1st Half O/U 0.5 SELL Over 65¢ $253 1h
Tunisia vs. Japan: 1st Half O/U 0.5 SELL Over 67¢ $100 1h
Tunisia vs. Japan: 1st Half O/U 0.5 SELL Over 67¢ $13 1h
Tunisia vs. Japan: 1st Half O/U 0.5 SELL Over 67¢ $1,325 1h
Tunisia vs. Japan: 1st Half O/U 0.5 SELL Over 68¢ $100 1h
Tunisia vs. Japan: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 71¢ $104 1h
Tunisia vs. Japan: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 71¢ $1,117 1h
Tunisia vs. Japan: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 71¢ $111 1h
Tunisia vs. Japan: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 71¢ $113 1h
Tunisia vs. Japan: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 71¢ $4 1h
Tunisia vs. Japan: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 71¢ $5 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1667 history records