Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T09:18:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

Chart Positions 8 History 64 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$3,674
14 days+$8,427
30 days+$8,427
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin hit $150k by December 31, 2026? No 86¢ 94¢ $12,614 $13,679 +$1,064 (+8%)
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? Yes 43¢ 60¢ $4,950 $6,850 +$1,900 (+38%)
Will MicroStrategy announce holding 1M+ BTC by December 31, 2026?-bV81 No 74¢ 75¢ $3,354 $3,406 +$51 (+2%)
Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 by December 31, 2026? No 90¢ 94¢ $2,073 $2,153 +$81 (+4%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $35,000 by December 31, 2026? No 80¢ 78¢ $1,600 $1,550 −$50 (-3%)
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T? Yes 86¢ 88¢ $1,059 $1,075 +$16 (+2%)
MicroStrategy announces >1000 BTC purchase June 9-15? Yes 61¢ 60¢ $220 $218 −$2 (-1%)
MicroStrategy announces >1000 BTC purchase June 9-15? No 51¢ 40¢ $137 $106 −$30 (-22%)
Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase June 9-15? Yes 75¢ 95¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+27%)
MicroStrategy announces >1000 BTC purchase May 5-11? Yes 72¢ $184 $0 −$184 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase June 2-8? Jun 08 $39,084 +$2,820 +7%
MicroStrategy announces >1000 BTC purchase June 2-8? Jun 08 $3,376 +$854 +25%
Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase May 26-June 1? Jun 02 $2,364 +$2,356 +100%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026? Jun 01 $86,977 +$26,814 +31%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $65,975 −$25,291 -38%
Will Bitcoin hit $150k by June 30, 2026? Jun 01 $10,156 +$823 +8%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $1,130 +$30 +3%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 29 $1,140 +$20 +2%
Will Union Bordeaux Begles win? May 23 $1 +$1 +61%
MicroStrategy announces >1000 BTC purchase May 5-11? May 10 $720 −$442 -61%
Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire extended by April 26, 2026? May 01 $2,040 +$1,960 +96%
Will Kateryna Lagno win the 2026 FIDE Women's Candidates Tournament? Apr 18 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Javokhir Sindarov win the 2026 FIDE Candidates Tournament? Apr 14 $17,810 +$2,451 +14%
Will Javokhir Sindarov win on 2026-04-14 at FIDE Candidates 2026 Open? Apr 14 $90 +$20 +22%
Will Javokhir Sindarov vs. Hikaru Nakamura end in a draw? Apr 13 $10 +$6 +64%
Will Fabiano Caruana win on 2026-04-12 at FIDE Candidates 2026 Open? Apr 13 $28 +$11 +39%
Will Fabiano Caruana win on 2026-04-09 at FIDE Candidates 2026 Open? Apr 10 $39 +$13 +34%
Will Matthias Bluebaum win on 2026-04-09 at FIDE Candidates 2026 Open? Apr 10 $64 +$16 +25%
Will Hikaru Nakamura win on 2026-04-09 at FIDE Candidates 2026 Open? Apr 10 $115 +$30 +26%
Will Javokhir Sindarov win on 2026-04-08 at FIDE Candidates 2026 Open? Apr 09 $2,322 +$618 +27%
Will Anish Giri win on 2026-04-08 at FIDE Candidates 2026 Open? Apr 09 $48 −$48 -100%
Will Fabiano Caruana win on 2026-04-07 at FIDE Candidates 2026 Open? Apr 07 $962 +$328 +34%
Will Javokhir Sindarov win on 2026-04-07 at FIDE Candidates 2026 Open? Apr 07 $1,581 +$537 +34%
Will Tô Lâm be the next President of Vietnam? Apr 07 $6,277 +$1,166 +19%
Will Fabiano Caruana win on 2026-04-05 at FIDE Candidates 2026 Open? Apr 06 $1,142 +$430 +38%
Will Hikaru Nakamura win on 2026-04-05 at FIDE Candidates 2026 Open? Apr 06 $1,550 +$450 +29%
US forces enter Iran by March 31? Apr 05 $3,320 +$680 +20%
Will Bitcoin hit $150k by March 31, 2026? Apr 01 $1,962 +$38 +2%
UFC 326: Gregory Rodrigues vs. Brunno Ferreira (Middleweight, Main Car Mar 08 $800 −$800 -100%
UFC 326: Charles Oliveira vs. Max Holloway (Lightweight, Main Card) Mar 08 $740 +$1,260 +170%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Mar 08 $2,760 $0 -0%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30? Mar 03 $2,900 −$2,900 -100%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31? Mar 01 $1,580 −$1,578 -100%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? Mar 01 $869 −$867 -100%
Will the government shutdown last 1 day or more? Feb 13 $1,000 +$202 +20%
Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase February 3-9? Feb 06 $741 +$43 +6%
US government shutdown Saturday? Feb 04 $10,630 −$1,560 -15%
Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase January 27-February 2? Feb 03 $63 +$28 +45%
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-02-01? Feb 02 $1,120 +$880 +79%
Will Como 1907 win on 2026-02-01? Feb 01 $2,089 +$35 +2%
US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? Feb 01 $4,100 +$900 +22%
UFC 325: Volkanovski vs. Lopes (Featherweight, Main Card) Feb 01 $1,200 +$800 +67%
UFC 325: Dan Hooker vs. Benoit Saint Denis (Lightweight, Main Card) Feb 01 $230 −$230 -100%
Will SV Werder Bremen win on 2026-01-31? Feb 01 $1,120 +$880 +79%
TSG 1899 Hoffenheim vs. 1. FC Union Berlin: O/U 2.5 Feb 01 $490 −$490 -100%
Real Oviedo vs. Girona FC: O/U 2.5 Feb 01 $442 −$442 -100%
Australian Open Women's: Aryna Sabalenka vs Elena Rybakina Jan 31 $630 +$370 +59%
U.S. Government Funding Lapse on January 31? Jan 31 $4,893 +$1,429 +29%
Will To Lam be elected General Secretary of the Vietnamese Communist P Jan 23 $5,848 +$514 +9%
Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase January 13-19? Jan 20 $3,469 +$3,516 +101%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 68% +$38,434
other 15% +$8,971
world 8% −$1,156
politics 5% −$192
tech 3% −$1,473
sports 2% +$524
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T? BUY Yes 87¢ $0 0m
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T? BUY Yes 87¢ $100 2m
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T? BUY Yes 87¢ $67 5m
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T? BUY Yes 87¢ $0 14m
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T? BUY Yes 87¢ $0 16m
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T? BUY Yes 87¢ $0 18m
MicroStrategy announces >1000 BTC purchase June 9-15? BUY Yes 60¢ $85 19m
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T? BUY Yes 87¢ $31 21m
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T? BUY Yes 86¢ $25 31m
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T? BUY Yes 86¢ $9 31m
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T? BUY Yes 86¢ $0 32m
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T? BUY Yes 86¢ $0 32m
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T? BUY Yes 86¢ $307 33m
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T? BUY Yes 86¢ $61 43m
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T? BUY Yes 86¢ $379 45m
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T? BUY Yes 86¢ $0 46m
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T? BUY Yes 86¢ $78 53m
Will MicroStrategy announce holding 1M+ BTC by December 31, 2026?-bV81 BUY No 75¢ $442 2h
Will MicroStrategy announce holding 1M+ BTC by December 31, 2026?-bV81 BUY No 75¢ $3 8h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? BUY Yes 43¢ $645 12h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? BUY Yes 43¢ $430 12h
Will MicroStrategy announce holding 1M+ BTC by December 31, 2026?-bV81 BUY No 75¢ $229 14h
MicroStrategy announces >1000 BTC purchase June 9-15? BUY No 52¢ $7 15h
Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase June 9-15? SELL Yes 89¢ $17 16h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? BUY Yes 43¢ $1,528 17h
Will MicroStrategy announce holding 1M+ BTC by December 31, 2026?-bV81 BUY No 75¢ $1 27h
MicroStrategy announces >1000 BTC purchase June 9-15? BUY No 52¢ $42 29h
MicroStrategy announces >1000 BTC purchase June 9-15? BUY No 52¢ $18 31h
Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase June 9-15? SELL Yes 89¢ $9 31h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? SELL Yes 42¢ $99 31h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +58%
net ROI/market (all)-2.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +16.3% +5.2% 100% 50% -1.7%
≤30d 9 +22.1% +10.4% 89% 44% -5.9%
≤90d 28 +15.0% +4.0% 86% 68% -3.4%
all 64 +8.0% -2.3% 77% 58% +0.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover7.3 tr/day
realistic slip~12%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -2.3% 58% +0.9%
10% ← realistic here -11.6% 41% -8.7%
15% -20.1% 25% -17.6%
20% -28.0% 19% -25.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $29,037.20 · official $29,036.55 (match) · 1519 history records