Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:18:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
56 0x5652…2aa5 weather 785 markets active 1h ago coverage 148d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$93 (-1%) realized −$86 · open −$7
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate50%394W / 390L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$17per market
Trades / day16.6pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$61now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$7
7 days+$19
14 days−$7
30 days−$53
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 72% −$80
finance 9% +$75
other 6% −$150
sports 5% −$16
crypto 3% $0
tech 3% −$83
culture 1% +$16
world 0% +$18
politics 0% +$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-17.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 77 -1.7% -11.1% 27% 22% -7.6%
≤30d 141 -1.1% -10.5% 45% 36% -11.8%
≤90d 762 -8.7% -17.4% 50% 33% -11.6%
all 784 -8.2% -17.0% 50% 33% -11.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover16.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.0% 33% -11.0%
10% -24.9% 19% -19.5%
15% -32.2% 11% -27.3%
20% -38.8% 8% -34.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
33% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -18% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.3 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$6 · ×0.9 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.91 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

148d coverage
Net worth$61
Realized−$86
Unrealized−$7
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses394 / 390
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)784 / 785
History coverage148d
Avg bet$17
Trades / day16.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 784 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 17? Up 86¢ 78¢ $68 $61 −$7 (-10%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 69 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 17? Jun 17 $61 +$7 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 23°C on June 15? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -83%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 15? Jun 15 $3 −$3 -87%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 35°C on June 15? Jun 15 $2 −$1 -43%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 24°C on June 15? Jun 15 $2 −$1 -28%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 37°C on June 15? Jun 15 $5 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 15? Jun 15 $5 −$2 -48%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 32°C or higher on June 15 Jun 15 $1 +$19 +2397%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 27°C on June 15? Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 20°C or below on June 1 Jun 15 $0 $0 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 29°C on June 15? Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 29°C on June 15? Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 28°C on June 15? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on June 15? Jun 14 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 28°C on June 15? Jun 14 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 33°C on June 15? Jun 14 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 15? Jun 14 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 21°C on June 15? Jun 14 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 15? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C or higher on June 15? Jun 14 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 30°C on June 15? Jun 14 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on June 15? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 15? Jun 14 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 26°C on June 15? Jun 14 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on June 15? Jun 14 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 15? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 27°C on June 15? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 34°C on June 15? Jun 14 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 22°C on June 15? Jun 14 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 14? Jun 14 $14 −$5 -34%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on June 14? Jun 14 $3 +$52 +1916%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 14? Jun 14 $21 −$21 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 14? Jun 14 $13 −$13 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 14? Jun 13 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 14? Jun 13 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C or higher on June 14? Jun 13 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 14? Jun 13 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 14? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 21°C on June 14? Jun 13 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 20°C or below on June 14? Jun 13 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 13? Jun 13 $98 −$2 -2%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 15? Jun 13 $25 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 13 $5 +$11 +201%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jun 13 $10 −$9 -84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Jun 13 $10 −$6 -60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jun 13 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 13 $10 +$5 +49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Jun 13 $10 +$5 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Jun 13 $21 +$7 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Jun 13 $10 +$7 +70%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 17? BUY Up 86¢ $68 1h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 17? SELL No 99¢ $68 1h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 17? BUY No 89¢ $61 14h
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 23°C on June 15? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 2d
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 15? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 2d
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 35°C on June 15? SELL Yes 6¢ $1 2d
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 24°C on June 15? SELL Yes 9¢ $2 2d
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 37°C on June 15? SELL Yes 25¢ $5 2d
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 15? SELL Yes 13¢ $2 2d
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 15? BUY Yes 24¢ $2 2d
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 32°C or higher on June 15 SELL Yes 100¢ $20 2d
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 15? BUY Yes 24¢ $1 2d
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 15? BUY Yes 24¢ $1 2d
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 27°C on June 15? BUY Yes 9¢ $0 2d
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 29°C on June 15? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 2d
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 20°C or below on June 1 BUY Yes 0¢ $0 2d
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 15? BUY Yes 15¢ $3 2d
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 29°C on June 15? BUY Yes 20¢ $4 2d
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 28°C on June 15? BUY Yes 11¢ $2 2d
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 20°C or below on June 1 BUY Yes 0¢ $0 2d
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on June 15? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 2d
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on June 15? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 2d
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 20°C or below on June 1 BUY Yes 0¢ $0 2d
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 37°C on June 15? BUY Yes 24¢ $1 2d
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 37°C on June 15? BUY Yes 24¢ $1 2d
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 24°C on June 15? BUY Yes 12¢ $0 2d
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 24°C on June 15? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 2d
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 24°C on June 15? BUY Yes 12¢ $0 2d
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 37°C on June 15? BUY Yes 24¢ $2 2d
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 24°C on June 15? BUY Yes 12¢ $2 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $61.09 · official $61.09 (match) · 2687 history records