Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T06:22:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
56 0x5656…c582 politics 10 markets active 2h ago coverage 87d
RISKYcopy with care politics specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$6 (-2%) realized −$6 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate44%4W / 5L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$35per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit60%portable
Net worth$28now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 62% −$9
other 38% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-12.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 1 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 9 -2.8% -12.1% 44% 0% -12.0%
all 9 -2.8% -12.1% 44% 0% -12.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.1% 0% -12.0%
10% -20.5% 0% -20.4%
15% -28.2% 0% -28.1%
20% -35.2% 0% -35.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 98% · top 2 98% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
75% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$13 · ×0.08 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.32 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

87d coverage
Net worth$28
Realized−$6
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses4 / 5
Open positions1
Markets (closed)9 / 10
History coverage87d
Avg bet$35
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit60%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 9 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? No 99¢ 99¢ $28 $28 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 26 $26 $0 +0%
Will Eoghan Ó Ceannabháin win the 2026 Dublin-central by-election? May 23 $36 −$13 -36%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? May 21 $40 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? May 21 $40 $0 +0%
Will Lars Boje Mathiesen be the next prime minister of Denmark after t May 19 $38 +$4 +10%
Will Morten Messerschmidt be the next prime minister of Denmark after Apr 09 $38 $0 +0%
Will Beth Van Duyne win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary? Apr 02 $36 $0 +0%
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be János Lázár? Mar 29 $37 $0 +0%
Will Nathalie Perrin-Gilbert win the 2026 Lyon mayoral election? Mar 27 $34 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $28 1h
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $26 27d
Will Eoghan Ó Ceannabháin win the 2026 Dublin-central by-election? SELL Yes 0¢ $23 30d
Will Eoghan Ó Ceannabháin win the 2026 Dublin-central by-election? BUY Yes 0¢ $36 30d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $40 31d
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $40 33d
Will Lars Boje Mathiesen be the next prime minister of Denmark after t SELL Yes 1¢ $32 34d
Will Lars Boje Mathiesen be the next prime minister of Denmark after t BUY Yes 0¢ $23 34d
Will Lars Boje Mathiesen be the next prime minister of Denmark after t SELL Yes 0¢ $11 36d
Will Lars Boje Mathiesen be the next prime minister of Denmark after t BUY Yes 0¢ $15 36d
Will Morten Messerschmidt be the next prime minister of Denmark after SELL Yes 0¢ $38 74d
Will Morten Messerschmidt be the next prime minister of Denmark after BUY Yes 0¢ $38 74d
Will Beth Van Duyne win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary? SELL Yes 0¢ $36 81d
Will Beth Van Duyne win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary? BUY Yes 0¢ $36 81d
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be János Lázár? SELL Yes 0¢ $37 85d
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be János Lázár? BUY Yes 0¢ $37 85d
Will Nathalie Perrin-Gilbert win the 2026 Lyon mayoral election? SELL Yes 0¢ $34 86d
Will Nathalie Perrin-Gilbert win the 2026 Lyon mayoral election? BUY Yes 0¢ $34 86d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $27.59 · official $27.59 (match) · 21 history records