trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | no closed markets | |||||
| ≤30d | 9 | -0.8% | -10.2% | 33% | 0% | -11.2% |
| ≤90d | 9 | -0.8% | -10.2% | 33% | 0% | -11.2% |
| all | 17 | -4.7% | -13.8% | 41% | 6% | -11.7% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -13.8% | 6% | -11.7% |
| 10% | -22.1% | 6% | -20.1% |
| 15% | -29.6% | 6% | -27.9% |
| 20% | -36.5% | 6% | -34.9% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? | No | 86¢ | 81¢ | $37 | $35 | −$2 (-5%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? | Jun 07 | $39 | −$1 | -2% |
| Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? | Jun 06 | $46 | $0 | +0% |
| Iran leadership change by June 30? | Jun 05 | $75 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Alberta join the US? | May 31 | $41 | $0 | +0% |
| Israel closes its airspace by May 31? | May 30 | $56 | −$3 | -6% |
| Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? | May 30 | $78 | $0 | +0% |
| US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? | May 30 | $80 | −$6 | -7% |
| US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? | May 28 | $13 | +$1 | +8% |
| Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma | May 27 | $45 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the Houston Texans win Super Bowl 2026? | Dec 17 | $2 | $0 | -5% |
| Will the Arizona Diamondbacks win the 2025 World Series? | Dec 09 | $2 | $0 | +4% |
| Will the Indiana Pacers win the 2025 NBA Finals? | Jun 24 | $2 | $0 | +1% |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $103000 on May 9? | May 10 | $2 | $0 | +2% |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $77000 on Mar 21? | Mar 22 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| California vs. Louisville | Mar 04 | $8 | −$1 | -18% |
| Massachusetts vs. St. Bonaventure | Mar 04 | $19 | −$11 | -58% |
| Northwestern vs. Ohio State | Mar 04 | $10 | +$10 | +100% |