Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T05:55:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
56 0x5656…0b58 other 49 markets active 0h ago coverage 209d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$2,356 (+39%) realized +$2,356 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -4% what you keep after slip
Net edge-4%after slip
Net WR11%break-even
Win rate93%43W / 3L
Drawdown4%max
Avg bet$124per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit51%portable
Net worth$148now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$1
14 days+$1
30 days+$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 36% +$9
sports 28% +$2,428
finance 26% −$33
tech 10% −$53
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +11%
net ROI/market (all)-4.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +0.5% -9.1% 100% 0% -9.2%
≤30d 5 +0.6% -9.0% 100% 0% -9.1%
≤90d 25 -4.3% -13.4% 92% 0% -11.9%
all 46 +5.8% -4.3% 93% 11% +26.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -4.3% 11% +26.8%
10% -13.4% 9% +14.6%
15% -21.8% 7% +3.6%
20% -29.5% 4% -6.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 98% · top 2 99% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
88% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +6% · $-wt +40% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +16% → late -5% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$57 vs −$32 · ×1.78 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×25.49 per $1 lost it wins $25.49
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

209d coverage
Net worth$148
Realized+$2,356
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)93%
Wins / losses43 / 3
Open positions3
Markets (closed)46 / 49
History coverage209d
Avg bet$124
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown4%
Kalshi-fit51%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 46 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 Week of June 22 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $76 $76 +$0 (+0%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $51 $51 −$0 (-0%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $45 Week of June 22 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $21 $21 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $780 Week of June 22 2026? Jun 24 $75 +$1 +1%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $115 Week of June 15 2026? Jun 19 $170 $0 +0%
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $790 Week of June 1 2026? Jun 15 $170 $0 +0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 Week of May 25 2026? Jun 01 $56 +$1 +1%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $65 Week of May 25 2026? Jun 01 $113 +$1 +1%
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $705 Week of May 18 2026? May 21 $167 +$1 +1%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $735 on May 18? May 18 $219 −$39 -18%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 Week of May 11 2026? May 18 $80 $0 +0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $65 Week of May 11 2026? May 18 $122 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from May 5 to May 12, 2026? May 14 $83 $0 +0%
Will Opendoor (OPEN) close at >$10 on the final day of trading of the May 12 $122 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from May 4 to May 6, 2026? May 08 $83 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 190-214 tweets from April 30 to May 2, 2026? May 03 $200 $0 +0%
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? May 01 $200 +$1 +0%
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of February 2026? Apr 27 $55 −$55 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from April 23 to April 25, 2026? Apr 27 $200 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 190-214 tweets from April 20 to April 22, 2026? Apr 25 $200 $0 +0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $65 Week of April 13 2026? Apr 21 $90 $0 +0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 Week of April 13 2026? Apr 15 $60 +$1 +2%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from April 9 to April 11, 2026? Apr 14 $200 +$1 +1%
Will Opendoor (OPEN) close at $0-$1.00 on the final day of trading of Apr 11 $200 $0 +0%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $45 by end of March? Apr 06 $60 $0 +0%
Will Opendoor (OPEN) close at <$0 on the final day of trading of the w Apr 06 $140 $0 +0%
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) finish week of March 23 above $150? Mar 30 $59 $0 +0%
Will Opendoor (OPEN) close at $1.00-$2.00 on the final day of trading Mar 30 $80 $0 +0%
Will Opendoor (OPEN) close at <$1.00 on the final day of trading of th Mar 21 $80 $0 +0%
Will Opendoor (OPEN) close at >$10 on the final day of trading of the Mar 21 $99 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from March 14 to March 16, 2026? Mar 19 $20 $0 +0%
Will Opendoor (OPEN) close at <$1.00 on the final day of trading of th Mar 14 $80 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 190-214 tweets from March 7 to March 9, 2026? Mar 14 $100 $0 +0%
Will Google (GOOGL) finish week of March 2 above $275? Mar 08 $180 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from February 20 to February 27, 20 Mar 05 $60 $0 +0%
Will Google (GOOGL) finish week of February 23 above $275? Mar 05 $100 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from February 23 to February 25, 2026 Feb 27 $80 +$2 +3%
Will Georgia record a medal at the 2026 Winter Olympics? Feb 25 $67 $0 +0%
Will 1. FC Union Berlin vs. Bayer 04 Leverkusen end in a draw? Feb 25 $73 +$27 +37%
Will Elon Musk post 240+ tweets from February 9 to February 11, 2026? Feb 18 $60 $0 +1%
Will $MARU reach $1B in Q1? Feb 11 $10 −$2 -20%
Israel nuclear weapon use against Iran by January 31? Feb 04 $10 $0 +1%
Will Gold (GC) settle over $4,600 on the final trading day of January Feb 04 $15 $0 +1%
Will Max Verstappen leave Red Bull before 2026? Jan 08 $2 $0 +0%
Rockets vs. Nets Jan 08 $5 +$1 +24%
Ducks vs. Kings Jan 01 $5 $0 +3%
Will Max Verstappen win the 2025 F1 Abu Dhabi Grand Prix? Dec 21 $2 +$3 +156%
Will DraftKings launch a prediction market in 2025? Dec 21 $8 +$2 +18%
Bulls vs. Pacers Nov 30 $1,600 +$2,400 +150%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $45 Week of June 22 2026? SELL No 100¢ $26 0m
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in June? BUY No 100¢ $51 1h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $45 Week of June 22 2026? SELL No 100¢ $51 1h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 Week of June 22 2026? BUY No 100¢ $76 43h
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $780 Week of June 22 2026? SELL No 100¢ $76 2d
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $780 Week of June 22 2026? BUY No 99¢ $75 4d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $45 Week of June 22 2026? BUY No 100¢ $98 4d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $115 Week of June 15 2026? BUY No 100¢ $170 10d
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $790 Week of June 1 2026? BUY No 100¢ $170 25d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 Week of May 25 2026? BUY No 99¢ $56 31d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $65 Week of May 25 2026? BUY No 99¢ $113 31d
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $705 Week of May 18 2026? SELL No 100¢ $169 36d
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $705 Week of May 18 2026? BUY No 99¢ $167 37d
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $735 on May 18? SELL No 35¢ $57 38d
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $735 on May 18? BUY No 51¢ $85 38d
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $735 on May 18? SELL Yes 45¢ $44 38d
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $735 on May 18? BUY Yes 48¢ $48 39d
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $735 on May 18? SELL No 45¢ $27 39d
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $735 on May 18? SELL No 51¢ $52 39d
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $735 on May 18? BUY No 52¢ $86 39d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 Week of May 11 2026? BUY No 100¢ $80 43d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $65 Week of May 11 2026? BUY No 100¢ $122 45d
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from May 5 to May 12, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $83 49d
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from May 4 to May 6, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $83 51d
Will Opendoor (OPEN) close at >$10 on the final day of trading of the BUY No 100¢ $122 54d
Will Elon Musk post 190-214 tweets from April 30 to May 2, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $200 56d
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? BUY No 100¢ $200 59d
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from April 23 to April 25, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $200 62d
Will Elon Musk post 190-214 tweets from April 20 to April 22, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $200 66d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 Week of April 13 2026? SELL No 99¢ $0 72d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $147.63 · official $147.63 (match) · 107 history records