Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T10:42:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
56 0x565c…467e crypto 267 markets active 1h ago coverage 19d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Possible transfer/wash account⚠ Covers last 19d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (174 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$147,813 (-566%) realized −$147,813 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -61% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -70% what you keep after slip
Net edge-70%after slip
Net WR14%break-even
Win rate18%126W / 557L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$98per market
Trades / day173.8pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 19d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$3,873
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (174 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +14%
net ROI/market (all)-65.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 554 -79.8% -81.8% 10% 9% -66.7%
≤30d 683 -61.3% -65.0% 18% 14% -40.0%
≤90d 683 -61.3% -65.0% 18% 14% -40.0%
all 683 -61.3% -65.0% 18% 14% -40.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover173.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -65.0% 14% -40.0%
10% ← realistic here -68.3% 10% -45.8%
15% -71.4% 9% -51.0%
20% -74.2% 7% -55.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -34% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
23% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -61% · $-wt -34% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -23% → late -100% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
12.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$48 vs −$36 · ×1.32 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.3 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

19d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$147,813
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)18%
Wins / losses126 / 557
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Open positions0
Markets (closed)683 / 267
History coverage19d ⚠
Avg bet$98
Trades / day173.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 683 Trades
no open positions (500 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - November 11, 11AM ET Jun 21 $90 −$90 -100%
Solana Up or Down - October 24, 9PM ET Jun 21 $16 −$16 -100%
Solana Up or Down - November 30, 10AM ET Jun 21 $193 −$193 -100%
XRP Up or Down - October 28, 7AM ET Jun 21 $14 −$14 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - August 7, 8AM ET Jun 21 $27 −$27 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - October 10, 11PM ET Jun 21 $18 −$18 -100%
XRP Up or Down - September 14, 2PM ET Jun 21 $33 −$33 -100%
XRP Up or Down - October 19, 3PM ET Jun 21 $77 −$77 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 21 $37 −$37 -100%
Solana Up or Down - October 8, 4PM ET Jun 21 $890 −$890 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - August 16, 1AM ET Jun 21 $44 −$44 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 15, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Jun 21 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Jun 21 $12 −$12 -100%
Solana Up or Down - October 2, 4AM ET Jun 21 $42 −$42 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Jun 21 $32 −$32 -100%
Solana Up or Down - April 10, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Jun 21 $4 −$4 -100%
Solana Up or Down - March 15, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 21 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 21 $19 −$19 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 28, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 21 $14 −$14 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 1, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Jun 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 8, 10AM ET Jun 21 $252 −$252 -100%
XRP Up or Down - March 18, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jun 21 $12 −$12 -100%
Solana Up or Down - January 17, 1PM ET Jun 21 $40 −$40 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 30, 3AM ET Jun 21 $15 −$15 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 15, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Jun 21 $21 −$21 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 14, 12AM ET Jun 21 $3 −$3 -100%
Solana Up or Down - March 18, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Jun 21 $22 −$22 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - August 11, 12PM ET Jun 21 $306 −$306 -100%
XRP Up or Down - February 22, 3AM ET Jun 21 $71 −$71 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET Jun 21 $3 −$3 -100%
XRP Up or Down - March 15, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Jun 21 $31 −$31 -100%
XRP Up or Down - March 28, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Jun 21 $4 −$4 -100%
XRP Up or Down - April 18, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Jun 21 $10 −$10 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - November 10, 9PM ET Jun 21 $8 −$8 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - November 10, 9AM ET Jun 21 $15 −$15 -100%
Solana Up or Down - April 22, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Jun 21 $3 −$3 -100%
Solana Up or Down - March 6, 4PM ET Jun 21 $72 −$72 -100%
Solana Up or Down - December 26, 11AM ET Jun 21 $292 −$292 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 26, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Jun 21 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 21 $54 −$54 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 6PM ET Jun 21 $3 −$3 -100%
XRP Up or Down - March 23, 4AM ET Jun 21 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 31, 1AM ET Jun 21 $45 −$45 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 9AM ET Jun 21 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 19, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Jun 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - April 10, 9AM ET Jun 21 $34 −$34 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - October 27, 2PM ET Jun 21 $116 −$116 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 23, 11PM ET Jun 21 $48 −$48 -100%
XRP Up or Down - February 9, 6AM ET Jun 21 $72 −$72 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - November 4, 7AM ET Jun 21 $14 −$14 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Solana Up or Down - June 21, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET BUY Up 91¢ $45 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET BUY Up 79¢ $39 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET BUY Up 77¢ $38 51m
Solana Up or Down - June 21, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $45 51m
Solana Up or Down - June 21, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $46 51m
Solana Up or Down - June 21, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $45 52m
Solana Up or Down - June 21, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET BUY Up 89¢ $43 52m
Solana Up or Down - June 21, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $44 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $30 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $30 53m
XRP Up or Down - June 21, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET BUY Up 66¢ $33 53m
Solana Up or Down - June 21, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET BUY Up 77¢ $38 53m
Solana Up or Down - June 21, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET BUY Up 91¢ $44 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 21, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET BUY Up 78¢ $38 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 21, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET BUY Up 73¢ $38 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET BUY Down 76¢ $37 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET BUY Down 67¢ $33 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET BUY Down 66¢ $33 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET BUY Down 69¢ $34 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET BUY Down 72¢ $36 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET BUY Down 72¢ $36 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET BUY Down 72¢ $36 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET BUY Down 80¢ $39 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET BUY Down 79¢ $39 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET BUY Down 64¢ $35 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET BUY Down 68¢ $34 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET BUY Down 58¢ $29 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET BUY Down 59¢ $29 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET BUY Up 7¢ $4 6h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET BUY Up 13¢ $7 6h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records