Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T01:30:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
56 0x565c…4363 other 38 markets active 2h ago coverage 28d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$169 (-5%) realized −$209 · open +$40
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate32%12W / 25L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$85per market
Trades / day2.5pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit32%portable
Net worth$753now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$230
7 days−$341
14 days−$335
30 days−$336
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 86% −$371
crypto 8% −$147
sports 7% +$221
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-14.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 35 -5.7% -14.7% 31% 31% -20.2%
≤30d 37 -5.5% -14.5% 32% 32% -19.9%
≤90d 37 -5.5% -14.5% 32% 32% -19.9%
all 37 -5.5% -14.5% 32% 32% -19.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.5% 32% -19.9%
10% -22.7% 30% -27.6%
15% -30.1% 27% -34.6%
20% -37.0% 27% -41.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 42% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -12% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -25% → late +13% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$98 vs −$61 · ×1.62 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.78 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

28d coverage
Net worth$753
Realized−$209
Unrealized+$40
Win rate (resolved)32%
Wins / losses12 / 25
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions1
Markets (closed)37 / 38
History coverage28d
Avg bet$85
Trades / day2.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit32%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 37 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 18¢ $275 $315 +$40 (+15%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $212 −$200 -94%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $185 +$262 +142%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $262 −$262 -100%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $107 −$107 -100%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $263 +$161 +61%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $160 −$52 -32%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $111 −$10 -9%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $203 −$54 -27%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $11 −$11 -100%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $210 +$74 +35%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $95 +$69 +73%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $16 −$16 -100%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $64 −$64 -100%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $105 −$105 -100%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $23 −$23 -100%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $48 +$107 +224%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $32 +$99 +310%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $27 +$47 +177%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $16 −$15 -96%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $32 −$32 -100%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 15 $53 −$53 -100%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? Jun 15 $79 −$79 -100%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Spurs vs. Thunder Jun 15 $14 −$14 -100%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 15 $21 −$21 -100%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $137 −$137 -100%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 15 $27 −$27 -100%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $167 −$167 -100%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? Jun 15 $43 −$43 -100%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $59 +$49 +82%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $11 +$22 +209%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $21 +$47 +223%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $60 +$239 +400%
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Jun 14 $18 −$15 -80%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-03? Jun 04 $39 +$6 +16%
Will Panama vs. Dominican Republic end in a draw? Jun 04 $7 −$1 -18%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 30¢ $53 1h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 40¢ $185 2h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 30¢ $159 2h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 16¢ $107 5h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 59¢ $263 5h
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 7¢ $109 6h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 4¢ $98 6h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 9¢ $148 6h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $262 13h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 70¢ $105 21h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 71¢ $105 21h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 4¢ $5 23h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 4¢ $5 23h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 55¢ $95 29h
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $27 2d
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $21 2d
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 20¢ $23 2d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 66¢ $105 2d
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $131 2d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 14¢ $27 2d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 14¢ $16 2d
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $11 2d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 14¢ $21 2d
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $21 2d
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $73 2d
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 33¢ $27 2d
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 5¢ $16 2d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 52¢ $59 2d
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 21¢ $11 2d
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 21¢ $21 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $752.64 · official $752.64 (match) · 101 history records