Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T20:24:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
56 0x565c…0634 crypto 551 markets active 0h ago coverage 111d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$1,052 (-5%) realized −$1,054 · open +$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate49%269W / 281L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$38per market
Trades / day13.1pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$17now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$147
7 days−$476
14 days−$693
30 days−$702
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$1,688
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-8.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 48 +28.3% +16.1% 42% 42% -39.5%
≤30d 102 +12.8% +2.0% 48% 46% -26.0%
≤90d 539 +0.9% -8.7% 49% 47% -15.8%
all 550 +0.7% -8.9% 49% 47% -15.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover13.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.9% 47% -15.9%
10% -17.6% 44% -23.9%
15% -25.6% 40% -31.3%
20% -32.9% 35% -38.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -9% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$21 vs −$26 · ×0.81 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.77 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

111d coverage
Net worth$17
Realized−$1,054
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses269 / 281
Open positions1
Markets (closed)550 / 551
History coverage111d
Avg bet$38
Trades / day13.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 550 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Down 79¢ 90¢ $15 $17 +$2 (+14%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 155 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 19 $36 −$22 -60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 19 $15 −$15 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 19 $5 −$3 -51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 19 $5 +$8 +152%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 19 $103 +$23 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 19 $56 −$47 -84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 19 $26 −$14 -52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 19 $15 −$9 -64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 19 $6 +$7 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 19 $12 +$13 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 19 $12 +$16 +128%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 19 $52 +$38 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 19 $25 −$25 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 19 $26 −$25 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 19 $52 +$36 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 19 $26 −$17 -66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 19 $21 −$20 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 19 $52 −$50 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 19 $52 −$43 -82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 19 $37 −$8 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 19 $12 +$9 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 17 $2 +$2 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 17 $66 −$64 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 17 $104 −$100 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 17 $52 −$50 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 16 $104 +$87 +84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 16 $78 −$50 -64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 16 $6 −$1 -21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 16 $104 +$72 +69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 16 $104 −$100 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 16 $52 −$50 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 16 $37 −$10 -28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 16 $26 +$22 +84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 16 $26 +$21 +80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 16 $26 +$13 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 16 $6 −$6 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 16 $26 −$17 -66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 16 $6 +$3 +49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 16 $4 +$5 +124%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 16 $6 +$5 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 16 $6 +$9 +140%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 16 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 15 $6 −$4 -71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 15 $17 −$16 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 15 $17 +$23 +136%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 15 $103 −$76 -74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 15 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 06 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 06 $31 −$30 -96%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET BUY Down 79¢ $5 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET BUY Down 78¢ $5 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET BUY Down 79¢ $5 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET SELL Down 86¢ $94 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $5 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $16 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $36 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET SELL Up 22¢ $14 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $36 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $15 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET SELL Down 22¢ $3 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Down 41¢ $5 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Down 38¢ $5 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET SELL Down 97¢ $80 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 61¢ $26 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 61¢ $26 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET SELL Down 51¢ $24 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET SELL Down 47¢ $23 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $26 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $26 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET SELL Down 9¢ $9 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $2 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $26 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $2 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $26 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET SELL Down 24¢ $12 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Down 46¢ $26 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Down 8¢ $2 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET SELL Down 16¢ $4 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Down 30¢ $2 42m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $17.16 · official $9.63 · 1640 history records