Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T09:54:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
56 0x565e…875d other 128 markets active 1h ago coverage 61d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$1,793 (+6%) realized +$1,601 · open +$192
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR23%break-even
Win rate62%55W / 33L
Whale WR88%big bets
Drawdown24%max
Avg bet$241per market
Trades / day9.8pace
Kalshi-fit17%portable
Net worth$12,991now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$49
7 days+$233
14 days+$448
30 days+$710
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 80% +$1,029
world 11% +$14
weather 7% +$24
tech 2% +$36
economics 1% +$154
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +23%
net ROI/market (all)-10.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 +7.3% -2.9% 77% 38% +0.1%
≤30d 53 +10.4% -0.1% 68% 21% -4.0%
≤90d 88 -0.5% -10.0% 62% 23% -3.6%
all 88 -0.5% -10.0% 62% 23% -3.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.0% 23% -3.6%
10% -18.6% 17% -12.8%
15% -26.5% 12% -21.2%
20% -33.7% 8% -29.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 22% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
64% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +6% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 88% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -7% → late +6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.6 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$33 vs −$23 · ×1.43 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×2.38 per $1 lost it wins $2.38
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

61d coverage
Net worth$12,991
Realized+$1,601
Unrealized+$192
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses55 / 33
Whale WR (big bets)88%
Open positions39
Markets (closed)88 / 128
History coverage61d
Avg bet$241
Trades / day9.8
Drawdown24%
Kalshi-fit17%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 39 History 88 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Israel reopen its embassy in Iran in 2026? No 92¢ 90¢ $1,984 $1,954 −$30 (-1%)
Will there be exactly 2 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from June 15 - 21? No 97¢ 96¢ $1,358 $1,345 −$13 (-1%)
Will there be exactly 1 earthquake of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from June 15 - 21? No 99¢ 95¢ $1,199 $1,146 −$52 (-4%)
Will the United States have an Ebola case in 2026? No 49¢ 57¢ $909 $1,064 +$155 (+17%)
Will any Category 5 hurricane make landfall in the US in before 2027? No 86¢ 83¢ $840 $814 −$26 (-3%)
Magnitude 6.5+ earthquake in LA before 2027? No 85¢ 92¢ $706 $764 +$57 (+8%)
Will there be 5 or fewer earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwide from June 15 - 21? No 98¢ 99¢ $603 $612 +$9 (+2%)
Ebola case in the US by June 30? No 89¢ 94¢ $549 $581 +$32 (+6%)
Will there be exactly 12 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide by June 30? No 92¢ 99¢ $400 $427 +$27 (+7%)
Will Canada have an Ebola case in 2026? No 70¢ 66¢ $420 $398 −$22 (-5%)
Will Santander fail by June 30, 2026? No 95¢ 100¢ $325 $339 +$15 (+4%)
Will there be between 17 and 19 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide in 2026? No 73¢ 82¢ $301 $338 +$37 (+12%)
Obama arrested before 2027? No 90¢ 94¢ $303 $316 +$13 (+4%)
Will Russia test a nuclear weapon by June 30 2026? No 99¢ 99¢ $296 $297 +$1 (+0%)
Will Harvey Weinstein be sentenced to more than 30 years in prison? No 90¢ 100¢ $258 $285 +$27 (+11%)
Will there be exactly 5 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from June 15 - 21? No 91¢ 75¢ $273 $224 −$49 (-18%)
Will China have an Ebola case in 2026? No 76¢ 74¢ $228 $223 −$5 (-2%)
Will there be 20 or more earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide in 2026? No 87¢ 97¢ $200 $223 +$23 (+11%)
Will there be exactly 13 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide by June 30? No 94¢ 99¢ $200 $210 +$10 (+5%)
Will there be exactly 3 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from June 15 - 21? Yes 21¢ 42¢ $73 $145 +$73 (+101%)
CDC issues Level 4 warning by December 31? No 82¢ 75¢ $154 $142 −$13 (-8%)
US bank failure by June 30? No 71¢ 92¢ $99 $128 +$29 (+30%)
Will Deutsche Bank fail by June 30, 2026? No 97¢ 100¢ $120 $124 +$4 (+3%)
Will BMO fail by June 30, 2026? No 99¢ 99¢ $101 $102 +$0 (+0%)
Will Lloyds fail by June 30, 2026? No 99¢ 99¢ $96 $96 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will there be more than 9 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher world Jun 19 $572 −$54 -9%
Will A Nation That Has Never Won the World Cup Win in 2026? Jun 18 $276 $0 -0%
Will there be exactly 4 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwi Jun 17 $264 +$5 +2%
Will there be exactly 9 earthquake of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwid Jun 17 $7 +$1 +12%
Will there be exactly 11 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldw Jun 15 $167 +$12 +8%
Will there be exactly 1 earthquake of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwid Jun 15 $84 +$26 +31%
Will there be more than 9 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher world Jun 15 $213 +$47 +22%
Will there be exactly 4 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwi Jun 15 $2 $0 +15%
Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwi Jun 15 $466 +$208 +45%
Callum Turner announced as next James Bond? Jun 13 $52 +$2 +5%
Will it rain in Boston on June 10? Jun 12 $41 −$18 -45%
Will it rain in Dallas on June 10? Jun 12 $19 +$1 +5%
Will it rain in Atlanta on June 10? Jun 12 $23 +$1 +5%
Will it rain in San Francisco on June 10? Jun 11 $19 −$19 -100%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $22 −$22 -100%
Will there be exactly 1 earthquake of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwid Jun 09 $21 $0 +0%
Will there be exactly 7 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwi Jun 08 $52 −$18 -34%
Will there be 8 or more earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwi Jun 08 $724 +$44 +6%
Will there be exactly 6 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwi Jun 08 $96 +$4 +4%
Will there be 5 or fewer earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldw Jun 08 $2,072 +$124 +6%
Will there be more than 9 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher world Jun 08 $50 +$114 +227%
Will Alexander Zverev win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 07 $79 −$9 -12%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 25°C on June 7? Jun 07 $3 −$3 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 28°C or higher on June 7? Jun 07 $99 +$1 +1%
Will 2026 be the fourth-hottest year on record? Jun 03 $1 $0 -27%
Will there be more than 9 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher world Jun 02 $165 −$161 -97%
Will there be exactly 6 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwi Jun 02 $99 −$99 -100%
Named storm forms before hurricane season? Jun 02 $550 +$22 +4%
Will there be exactly 3 ChatGPT outages in May 2026? Jun 02 $2 −$2 -100%
Will there be exactly 2 ChatGPT outages in May 2026? Jun 02 $9 −$9 -100%
Will a hurricane form by May 31? Jun 02 $117 +$1 +1%
Will there be fewer than 2 ChatGPT outages in May 2026? Jun 02 $236 +$15 +6%
Will there be exactly 4 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwi Jun 01 $629 +$18 +3%
Will there be 3 or fewer earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldw Jun 01 $995 +$5 +0%
US bank failure by May 31? Jun 01 $269 +$6 +2%
Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwi Jun 01 $5 $0 +1%
Will a hurricane make landfall in the US by May 31? Jun 01 $560 +$29 +5%
Another 7.0 or above earthquake by May 30, 2026? Jun 01 $360 +$27 +8%
Eric Swalwell charged by May 31? Jun 01 $56 +$5 +10%
Will there be exactly 7 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwi Jun 01 $6 +$40 +680%
Will there be exactly 5 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwi Jun 01 $119 +$6 +5%
Sinaloa Gov. Ruben Rocha arrested by May 31? Jun 01 $180 +$69 +38%
Will there be exactly 1 earthquake of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwid May 29 $84 −$4 -5%
Will the Republic of the Congo have an Ebola case in 2026? May 26 $29 −$14 -47%
Will there be exactly 9 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwi May 25 $495 +$5 +1%
Will there be exactly 5 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwi May 25 $4 +$1 +14%
Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwi May 25 $67 +$99 +147%
Will there be 3 or fewer earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldw May 25 $301 +$22 +7%
James Comey in jail by June 30? May 24 $200 +$16 +8%
Will there be more than 9 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher world May 23 $189 +$192 +101%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will there be exactly 2 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwi SELL Yes 3¢ $2 1h
Will there be exactly 2 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwi BUY No 96¢ $386 1h
Will there be exactly 3 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwi BUY Yes 51¢ $3 1h
Will there be exactly 3 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwi BUY Yes 66¢ $46 1h
Will there be 5 or fewer earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldw BUY No 99¢ $495 1h
Will there be exactly 2 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwi BUY No 97¢ $974 1h
Will there be exactly 3 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwi BUY Yes 9¢ $25 2h
Will there be exactly 5 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwi BUY No 91¢ $152 2h
Will there be exactly 5 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwi BUY No 91¢ $121 2h
Will there be more than 9 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher world SELL Yes 57¢ $197 2h
Will there be exactly 2 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwi BUY Yes 55¢ $6 9h
Will there be exactly 9 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwi BUY No 78¢ $28 18h
Will A Nation That Has Never Won the World Cup Win in 2026? SELL No 69¢ $200 21h
Will there be more than 9 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher world BUY Yes 68¢ $182 23h
Will any Category 5 hurricane make landfall in the US in before 2027? BUY No 85¢ $7 24h
Will there be more than 9 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher world BUY Yes 68¢ $22 27h
Will there be more than 9 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher world BUY Yes 57¢ $12 30h
Will A Nation That Has Never Won the World Cup Win in 2026? SELL No 69¢ $3 30h
Will there be more than 9 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher world SELL Yes 72¢ $1 31h
Will there be more than 9 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher world BUY Yes 57¢ $9 32h
Will there be exactly 3 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwi BUY No 58¢ $87 32h
Will there be 8 or fewer earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldw BUY Yes 52¢ $0 35h
Will there be 8 or fewer earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldw BUY Yes 52¢ $21 35h
Ebola case in the US by June 30? BUY No 90¢ $68 35h
Will there be exactly 4 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwi SELL No 93¢ $251 36h
Will there be exactly 4 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwi SELL No 93¢ $19 36h
Will there be exactly 1 earthquake of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwid BUY No 99¢ $3 38h
Will there be more than 9 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher world SELL Yes 72¢ $23 38h
Will there be more than 9 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher world SELL Yes 73¢ $49 38h
Will there be exactly 2 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwi BUY Yes 44¢ $19 38h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $12,990.80 · official $12,990.81 (match) · 655 history records