Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T01:42:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0

score

56 0x565f…e7df other 29 markets active 2h ago coverage 4d

TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample

✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover

Total PnL −$136 (-8%) realized −$71 · open −$65

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +16% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -3% what you keep after slip

Net edge-3%after slip

Net WR37%break-even

Win rate44%12W / 15L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$55per market

Trades / day10.4pace

Fees−$6est.

Kalshi-fit48%portable

Net worth$5now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +37%

net ROI/market (all)+4.8%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	27	+15.8%	+4.8%	44%	37%	-19.1%
≤30d	27	+15.8%	+4.8%	44%	37%	-19.1%
≤90d	27	+15.8%	+4.8%	44%	37%	-19.1%
all	27	+15.8%	+4.8%	44%	37%	-19.1%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover10.4 tr/day

realistic slip~9%

edge survives to5%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+4.8%	37%	-19.1%
10%	-5.3%	33%	-26.8%
15%	-14.4%	33%	-33.9%
20%	-22.8%	30%	-40.4%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 27% · top 2 54% broad-based profit

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -11% edge died — 90d negative

Fragile wins

17% wins margin < slip solid win margins

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +16% · $-wt -11% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early -59% → late +86% mixed

Add-ons / DCA

1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$47 vs −$48 · ×0.97 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×0.78 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage

Net worth$5

Realized−$71

Unrealized−$65

Win rate (resolved)44%

Wins / losses12 / 15

Est. fees paid−$6

Open positions2

Markets (closed)27 / 29

History coverage4d

Avg bet$55

Trades / day10.4

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit48%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 2 History 27 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15?	Yes	54¢	24¢	$10	$5	−$5 (-55%)
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15?	Yes	30¢	0¢	$60	$0	−$60 (-100%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 14 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw?	Jun 16	$250	+$5	+2%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw?	Jun 15	$15	+$47	+303%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw?	Jun 15	$102	+$149	+146%
Exact Score: Spain 2 - 1 Cabo Verde?	Jun 15	$5	−$4	-81%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14?	Jun 15	$15	+$14	+89%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14?	Jun 15	$5	+$13	+250%
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw?	Jun 15	$10	−$10	-98%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw?	Jun 14	$10	+$24	+234%
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 0 Curaçao?	Jun 14	$5	−$5	-98%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14?	Jun 14	$10	−$10	-97%
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw?	Jun 14	$28	−$27	-98%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13?	Jun 14	$81	+$45	+55%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw?	Jun 14	$78	+$4	+5%
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw?	Jun 13	$11	+$67	+596%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13?	Jun 13	$232	−$229	-99%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13?	Jun 13	$40	−$40	-99%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12?	Jun 13	$81	+$15	+18%
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw?	Jun 13	$35	−$35	-98%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12?	Jun 12	$102	−$100	-98%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12?	Jun 12	$10	−$10	-98%
Canada vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Canada O/U 1.5	Jun 12	$30	−$30	-98%
Canada vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Bosnia-Herzegovina O/U 0.5	Jun 12	$5	−$5	-98%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5	Jun 12	$10	−$10	-98%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 0.5	Jun 12	$5	−$5	-97%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11?	Jun 12	$92	+$151	+165%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11?	Jun 11	$61	+$26	+43%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11?	Jun 11	$205	−$200	-97%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15?	BUY Yes	54¢	$10	1h
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw?	SELL Yes	99¢	$255	1h
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw?	BUY Yes	97¢	$250	1h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15?	BUY Yes	42¢	$51	2h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15?	BUY Yes	12¢	$10	4h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw?	SELL Yes	99¢	$62	4h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw?	BUY Yes	24¢	$15	7h
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw?	SELL Yes	100¢	$250	7h
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw?	BUY Yes	40¢	$102	8h
Exact Score: Spain 2 - 1 Cabo Verde?	SELL Yes	1¢	$1	8h
Exact Score: Spain 2 - 1 Cabo Verde?	BUY Yes	7¢	$5	20h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14?	SELL Yes	100¢	$29	20h
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw?	BUY Yes	29¢	$10	23h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14?	BUY Yes	52¢	$15	24h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14?	BUY Yes	28¢	$5	27h
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw?	SELL Yes	99¢	$34	27h
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw?	BUY Yes	29¢	$10	30h
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 0 Curaçao?	BUY Yes	16¢	$5	35h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14?	BUY Yes	2¢	$3	36h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14?	BUY Yes	2¢	$7	45h
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw?	BUY Yes	26¢	$28	46h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13?	SELL Yes	99¢	$126	46h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13?	BUY Yes	63¢	$81	2d
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw?	SELL Yes	99¢	$82	2d
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw?	BUY Yes	94¢	$78	2d
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw?	SELL Yes	100¢	$78	2d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13?	BUY Yes	59¢	$232	2d
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw?	BUY Yes	14¢	$11	2d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13?	BUY Yes	81¢	$40	2d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12?	SELL Yes	100¢	$61	2d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4.64 · official $4.64 (match) · 45 history records