Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T06:19:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
56 0x5661…3270 crypto 185 markets active 0h ago coverage 5d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$41 (-16%) realized −$41 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -17% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -36% what you keep after slip
Net edge-36%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate42%77W / 108L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1per market
Trades / day49.4pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 5d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$50
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-24.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 185 -16.9% -24.8% 42% 40% -27.6%
≤30d 185 -16.9% -24.8% 42% 40% -27.6%
≤90d 185 -16.9% -24.8% 42% 40% -27.6%
all 185 -16.9% -24.8% 42% 40% -27.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover49.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -24.8% 40% -27.6%
10% ← realistic here -32.0% 39% -34.5%
15% -38.6% 35% -40.8%
20% -44.6% 28% -46.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -20% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -17% · $-wt -20% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -24% → late -10% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.86 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.62 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

5d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$41
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses77 / 108
Open positions0
Markets (closed)185 / 185
History coverage5d
Avg bet$1
Trades / day49.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 185 Trades
no open positions (83 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$4 +341%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 14 $1 +$2 +198%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +119%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +140%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 14 $1 +$2 +146%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -95%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $1 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET BUY Up 58¢ $1 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET BUY Up 66¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET BUY Down 62¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET BUY Down 73¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET BUY Up 7¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET BUY Down 6¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET SELL Up 78¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET BUY Up 58¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET BUY Down 7¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET BUY Down 22¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET SELL Up 67¢ $5 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Up 14¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Down 4¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET BUY Up 2¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Down 15¢ $1 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET BUY Down 64¢ $1 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $1 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Down 56¢ $1 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $1 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $1 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $1 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $1 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $1 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $1 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Down 32¢ $1 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $1 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET BUY Down 42¢ $1 16h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 314 history records