Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T20:36:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
56 0x5663…f2e5 other 213 markets active 1h ago coverage 55d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$25 (+0%) realized −$6 · open +$31
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR21%break-even
Win rate60%105W / 70L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$67per market
Trades / day28.6pace
Fees−$26est.
Kalshi-fit66%portable
Net worth$1,586now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$31
7 days+$12
14 days+$159
30 days+$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 39% −$209
world 30% −$75
sports 14% +$207
weather 11% +$27
politics 4% −$41
tech 2% −$10
crypto 1% −$6
economics 1% −$10
culture 0% −$3
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +21%
net ROI/market (all)-13.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 63 -5.9% -14.9% 65% 19% -9.2%
≤30d 144 -4.0% -13.1% 67% 24% -9.5%
≤90d 175 -4.0% -13.1% 60% 21% -10.7%
all 175 -4.0% -13.1% 60% 21% -10.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover28.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -13.1% 21% -10.7%
10% ← realistic here -21.4% 7% -19.2%
15% -29.0% 4% -27.0%
20% -36.0% 3% -34.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 28% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
66% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
4.8 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$12 · ×0.55 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.82 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

55d coverage
Net worth$1,586
Realized−$6
Unrealized+$31
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses105 / 70
Est. fees paid−$26
Open positions38
Markets (closed)175 / 213
History coverage55d
Avg bet$67
Trades / day28.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit66%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 38 History 175 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Tamas Sulyok out as President of Hungary by June 30? No 93¢ 92¢ $225 $223 −$2 (-1%)
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? No 90¢ 90¢ $200 $201 +$1 (+1%)
Will Giannis Antetokounmpo play for the Golden State Warriors in 2026-27? No 93¢ 99¢ $180 $192 +$12 (+7%)
Starmer out by October 31, 2026? Yes 80¢ 98¢ $91 $112 +$21 (+23%)
Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027? Yes 49¢ 52¢ $106 $111 +$6 (+5%)
Will LeBron James retire before next NBA season? No 91¢ 94¢ $84 $86 +$2 (+3%)
U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "India" before 2027? No 74¢ 74¢ $76 $76 −$1 (-1%)
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? No 95¢ 97¢ $64 $65 +$1 (+2%)
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? Yes 69¢ 72¢ $45 $46 +$1 (+3%)
Will China GDP growth in Q2 2026 be between 4.6% and 4.9%? Yes 76¢ 64¢ $45 $37 −$7 (-16%)
Will Gustavo Petro be charged in the US by June 30? No 94¢ 95¢ $34 $35 +$0 (+1%)
US x China tariff agreement by December 31? Yes 86¢ 92¢ $32 $34 +$2 (+6%)
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? No 58¢ 58¢ $33 $34 +$0 (+1%)
Gustavo Petro out as leader of Colombia by June 30? No 95¢ 97¢ $32 $32 +$1 (+2%)
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by June 30? No 96¢ 96¢ $31 $31 +$0 (+0%)
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? Yes 38¢ 42¢ $22 $24 +$3 (+12%)
Will Trump speak to Xi Jinping in June? No 78¢ 90¢ $16 $18 +$3 (+16%)
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026? No 97¢ 98¢ $13 $13 +$0 (+1%)
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? No 94¢ 98¢ $13 $13 +$1 (+4%)
Will Trump wear a Yarmulke in 2026? No 66¢ 70¢ $11 $12 +$1 (+6%)
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? No 96¢ 97¢ $11 $11 +$0 (+1%)
Will Trump speak to Kim Jong Un in June? No 96¢ 96¢ $11 $11 +$0 (+1%)
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting? Yes 80¢ 78¢ $11 $11 −$0 (-2%)
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting? Yes 66¢ 52¢ $13 $10 −$3 (-22%)
Will Avengers: Doomsday be the top grossing movie of 2026? Yes 18¢ 14¢ $10 $8 −$3 (-25%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 21? Jun 21 $112 +$5 +5%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? Jun 21 $10 $0 +2%
Starmer out by June 22, 2026? Jun 21 $5 $0 +6%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $2 +$1 +48%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? Jun 21 $13 $0 -1%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $2 +$2 +94%
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 21 $20 +$2 +11%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026? Jun 20 $341 +$18 +5%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? Jun 20 $60 −$5 -8%
Will JD Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30, 2026? Jun 20 $5 $0 +6%
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? Jun 20 $43 −$2 -4%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 94-95°F on June 19? Jun 20 $151 +$11 +7%
Starmer out by July 31, 2026? Jun 19 $48 −$25 -53%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C on June 19? Jun 19 $53 +$2 +4%
Will J.D. Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30? Jun 19 $4 $0 -5%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 19 $37 +$3 +8%
Starmer out by August 31, 2026? Jun 19 $2 −$1 -65%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? Jun 19 $105 +$10 +10%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 19? Jun 18 $12 $0 -4%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $120 +$11 +9%
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? Jun 18 $37 +$5 +15%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 18? Jun 18 $18 +$1 +5%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 21°C on June 18? Jun 18 $11 +$1 +7%
Will JD Vance attend the G7 Summit? Jun 18 $76 +$3 +4%
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $4.0T by June 30? Jun 18 $43 +$1 +3%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $1 $0 +10%
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) Jun 18 $4 −$3 -71%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 18 $274 −$27 -10%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 22°C on June 17? Jun 17 $7 −$7 -100%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 6.5 Jun 17 $41 −$41 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 30°C on June 17? Jun 17 $23 +$1 +6%
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 19? Jun 17 $17 +$1 +6%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $140 +$10 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 17? Jun 17 $50 +$2 +4%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 20°C on June 17? Jun 17 $19 +$1 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 29°C on June 17? Jun 17 $52 −$52 -100%
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? Jun 17 $40 −$7 -18%
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? Jun 17 $14 +$13 +90%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $3 +$1 +21%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? Jun 17 $355 +$11 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 29°C on June 16? Jun 16 $13 +$3 +21%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 29°C on June 16? Jun 16 $19 +$4 +20%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 19°C on June 16? Jun 16 $19 +$2 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 16? Jun 16 $198 +$12 +6%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 20°C on June 16? Jun 16 $6 −$6 -100%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 16, 2026? Jun 16 $46 +$14 +31%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 17, 2026? Jun 16 $11 $0 -1%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026? Jun 16 $11 $0 -3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027? BUY Yes 54¢ $17 1h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 90¢ $201 1h
Starmer out by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 98¢ $3 5h
Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027? SELL Yes 60¢ $22 6h
Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027? BUY Yes 59¢ $3 6h
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? BUY Yes 37¢ $2 7h
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? BUY Yes 37¢ $7 7h
Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027? SELL Yes 60¢ $13 7h
Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027? SELL Yes 60¢ $15 7h
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? SELL Yes 37¢ $1 7h
Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027? SELL Yes 54¢ $8 7h
Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027? SELL Yes 55¢ $12 7h
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? SELL Yes 38¢ $4 7h
Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027? SELL Yes 53¢ $31 7h
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? BUY Yes 38¢ $17 8h
Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027? BUY Yes 50¢ $33 8h
US x China tariff agreement by December 31? SELL Yes 90¢ $6 8h
US x China tariff agreement by December 31? SELL Yes 90¢ $2 8h
Starmer out by October 31, 2026? SELL Yes 97¢ $28 8h
Starmer out by October 31, 2026? SELL Yes 97¢ $6 9h
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? BUY No 52¢ $7 9h
Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027? BUY Yes 44¢ $2 9h
Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027? BUY Yes 46¢ $3 9h
Starmer out by October 31, 2026? SELL Yes 97¢ $3 9h
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? BUY No 59¢ $7 10h
Starmer out by October 31, 2026? SELL Yes 97¢ $10 11h
Starmer out by October 31, 2026? SELL Yes 97¢ $3 11h
Starmer out by October 31, 2026? SELL Yes 96¢ $5 11h
Starmer out by October 31, 2026? SELL Yes 97¢ $9 11h
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? BUY No 58¢ $4 12h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,585.83 · official $1,584.35 (match) · 1645 history records