Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T03:21:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
56 0x5667…80df politics 52 markets active 2h ago coverage 301d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$143 (-13%) realized −$141 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -19% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate56%28W / 22L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$22per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$62now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$18
7 days+$17
14 days+$17
30 days+$21
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 43% −$100
other 36% −$23
world 7% +$10
sports 7% +$2
tech 4% −$16
crypto 2% −$20
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-26.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +12.0% +1.4% 75% 50% +4.1%
≤30d 7 +7.1% -3.1% 57% 43% +2.7%
≤90d 12 -9.2% -17.8% 50% 42% -0.6%
all 50 -19.1% -26.8% 56% 32% -22.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -26.8% 32% -22.7%
10% -33.8% 12% -30.1%
15% -40.2% 4% -36.8%
20% -46.1% 0% -43.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 27% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +10% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
39% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -19% · $-wt -15% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -29% → late -9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$11 · ×0.3 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.38 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

301d coverage
Net worth$62
Realized−$141
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses28 / 22
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions2
Markets (closed)50 / 52
History coverage301d
Avg bet$22
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 50 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Cristiano Ronaldo score 3+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 91¢ 87¢ $37 $35 −$2 (-4%)
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? Yes 83¢ 82¢ $27 $26 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Starmer out by June 25, 2026? Jun 24 $17 +$3 +16%
Starmer out by June 22, 2026? Jun 24 $45 +$15 +33%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 21 $2 $0 +1%
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm ele Jun 20 $48 −$1 -2%
Will OpenAI announce a tablet in 2026? May 30 $7 $0 -3%
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30? May 30 $5 −$1 -11%
Will a province schedule a referendum to leave Canada before 2027? May 30 $34 +$5 +15%
US forces enter Iran by April 30? Apr 11 $37 +$7 +19%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by May 15? Apr 04 $30 −$5 -15%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by March 31? Apr 04 $34 +$5 +16%
Will James Talarico and John Cornyn be the candidates for the Texas Se Apr 04 $3 −$2 -64%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 04 $10 −$3 -31%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by March 15? Mar 20 $16 +$1 +9%
US x Iran ceasefire by December 31? Mar 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Trump acquire Greenland in 2025? Mar 06 $2 $0 +3%
Will Mamdani freeze NYC rents before 2027? Mar 05 $34 −$4 -11%
Will Katie Wilson win the 2025 Seattle mayoral election? Mar 04 $2 $0 +3%
Will Jeannette Jara win the 1st round of the 2025 Chilean presidential Mar 04 $1 $0 +5%
Will James Solomon win the 2025 Jersey City mayoral election? Mar 04 $20 $0 +2%
Will the Government shutdown end by November 7? Nov 11 $2 $0 +11%
Will Trump say "Caspian Sea" during C5+1 Summit on November 6? Nov 07 $23 −$23 -100%
Will voter turnout in the next New York City mayoral election be 36% o Nov 06 $6 +$2 +33%
Will Andrew Cuomo win second place in the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Nov 05 $20 +$4 +18%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Nov 05 $77 +$4 +5%
Will China lift rare earths export ban by December 31? Nov 03 $3 $0 +5%
Will any of the stolen Louvre jewels be returned by October 31 Nov 01 $2 $0 +24%
Will the Party for Freedom win the most seats in the 2025 Netherlands Oct 31 $20 −$20 -99%
Will Trump meet with Putin by November 30? Oct 26 $23 −$14 -60%
Will Eric Adams endorse Cuomo? Oct 25 $61 −$10 -16%
Will Sora be the #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on October 24? Oct 25 $21 −$21 -100%
Will Sora be the #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on October 20? Oct 21 $10 +$1 +10%
Will Rodrigo Paz win the 2025 Bolivia presidential election? Oct 21 $30 −$16 -52%
French election called by October 17? Oct 18 $13 +$3 +25%
Will Sora be the #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on October 15? Oct 18 $10 +$4 +41%
Will Sanae Takaichi be the next Prime Minister of Japan? Oct 18 $10 −$7 -72%
Will Helena Moreno win the 2025 New Orleans mayoral election? Oct 15 $10 +$1 +9%
Will Trump say "NATO" during events with President of Finland on Oct 9 Oct 11 $13 +$1 +11%
Will Trump say "Ukraine" or "Russia" 7+ times during events with Presi Oct 11 $20 +$9 +43%
2025 September third hottest on record? Oct 07 $15 −$11 -72%
Will Eric Adams drop out by September 30? Oct 03 $35 −$35 -100%
Will the federal government not be shut down in 2025? Oct 01 $73 +$7 +10%
US government shutdown by October 1? Oct 01 $20 −$13 -68%
Will the Party of Action and Solidarity win the most seats in the 2025 Sep 29 $50 +$6 +12%
Will Peter Mutharika win the 2025 Malawi presidential election? Sep 26 $12 +$1 +9%
Will Kimmel say "Kirk" during return show on September 23? Sep 26 $20 +$4 +18%
Will Ap win the most seats in the next Norwegian parliamentary electio Sep 10 $20 +$3 +15%
Will HRPP win the most seats in the 2025 Samoa Legislative Assembly el Sep 09 $10 −$10 -100%
Will PNP (People’s National Party) win the most seats in the 2025 Jama Sep 09 $30 −$30 -100%
Will Trump say "Russia" or "Ukraine" 7+ times during events with Polis Sep 04 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Mamdani get over 50% of the vote in the general mayoral election? Aug 30 $5 −$1 -16%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Cristiano Ronaldo score 3+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 91¢ $37 1h
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? SELL Yes 82¢ $37 1h
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? BUY Yes 83¢ $64 1h
Starmer out by June 25, 2026? BUY Yes 86¢ $17 2d
Starmer out by June 22, 2026? SELL No 34¢ $15 2d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 99¢ $2 4d
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm ele SELL Yes 81¢ $47 4d
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm ele BUY Yes 81¢ $48 24d
Will OpenAI announce a tablet in 2026? SELL No 91¢ $7 24d
Will a province schedule a referendum to leave Canada before 2027? SELL Yes 73¢ $39 24d
Will OpenAI announce a tablet in 2026? BUY No 95¢ $2 71d
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30? SELL Yes 64¢ $2 71d
Will a province schedule a referendum to leave Canada before 2027? BUY Yes 63¢ $34 73d
Will OpenAI announce a tablet in 2026? BUY No 92¢ $5 73d
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30? BUY Yes 92¢ $5 73d
US forces enter Iran by April 30? BUY Yes 84¢ $25 80d
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by May 15? SELL No 72¢ $25 80d
US forces enter Iran by April 30? BUY Yes 84¢ $11 80d
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by May 15? BUY No 73¢ $30 80d
Will James Talarico and John Cornyn be the candidates for the Texas Se SELL Yes 32¢ $1 80d
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL Yes 5¢ $0 80d
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by March 31? BUY No 93¢ $18 95d
US x Iran ceasefire by December 31? BUY No 32¢ $2 101d
Will James Talarico and John Cornyn be the candidates for the Texas Se BUY Yes 88¢ $3 111d
Will Mamdani freeze NYC rents before 2027? SELL Yes 53¢ $3 111d
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by March 15? BUY No 94¢ $3 111d
Will Mamdani freeze NYC rents before 2027? SELL Yes 53¢ $3 111d
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by March 31? BUY No 80¢ $6 111d
Will Mamdani freeze NYC rents before 2027? SELL Yes 53¢ $6 111d
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by March 31? BUY No 80¢ $4 111d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $61.86 · official $61.86 (match) · 172 history records