Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T07:43:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
56 0x5669…0f13 finance 384 markets active 2h ago coverage 121d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 120d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$1,638 (+3%) realized +$1,339 · open +$299
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate60%211W / 143L
Whale WR83%big bets
Drawdown88%max
Avg bet$158per market
Trades / day26.7pace
Fees−$13est.
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$3,085now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$11
7 days−$509
14 days−$132
30 days+$194
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 44% +$593
finance 25% +$318
other 20% −$656
tech 6% +$224
sports 4% −$26
politics 1% +$11
economics 0% +$12
culture 0% +$50
crypto 0% +$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-8.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 38 -10.9% -19.4% 50% 32% -17.1%
≤30d 168 -5.2% -14.2% 62% 40% -7.6%
≤90d 292 +2.0% -7.7% 61% 36% -8.0%
all 354 +1.3% -8.3% 60% 34% -8.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover26.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -8.3% 34% -8.3%
10% ← realistic here -17.1% 20% -17.1%
15% -25.1% 12% -25.1%
20% -32.4% 9% -32.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
39% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 83% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -4% → late +7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
4.9 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$25 vs −$36 · ×0.69 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.05 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

121d coverage
Net worth$3,085
Realized+$1,339
Unrealized+$299
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses211 / 143
Whale WR (big bets)83%
Est. fees paid−$13
Open positions30
Markets (closed)354 / 384
History coverage121d ⚠
Avg bet$158
Trades / day26.7
Drawdown88%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 30 History 354 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $700 in June? No 66¢ 92¢ $271 $379 +$108 (+40%)
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by June 30? No 94¢ 97¢ $283 $291 +$7 (+3%)
Will Anthropic’s valuation hit (HIGH) $1.1T by June 30? Yes 43¢ 69¢ $175 $281 +$107 (+61%)
Will Micron Q3 DRAM revenue be above $26B? Yes 91¢ 96¢ $266 $280 +$14 (+5%)
Will Micron Q3 DRAM revenue be above $30B? No 43¢ 56¢ $193 $251 +$57 (+30%)
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $710 in June? No 72¢ 78¢ $211 $230 +$19 (+9%)
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by June 30? No 44¢ 98¢ $89 $200 +$111 (+125%)
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? No 75¢ 98¢ $150 $195 +$45 (+30%)
Will Xi Jinping visit US before 2027? No 14¢ 10¢ $239 $173 −$66 (-28%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 Week of June 22 2026? Yes 32¢ 47¢ $87 $130 +$43 (+49%)
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.5T by June 30? No 88¢ 100¢ $91 $103 +$12 (+13%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Yes 5¢ 2¢ $139 $72 −$67 (-48%)
Will Micron Q3 DRAM revenue be above $29B? No 25¢ 16¢ $96 $60 −$35 (-37%)
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? Yes 17¢ 10¢ $93 $53 −$40 (-43%)
Will Micron (MU) finish week of June 22 above $1,120? No 50¢ 50¢ $50 $50 +$0 (+1%)
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $690 in June? No 72¢ 96¢ $36 $48 +$12 (+33%)
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Benjamin Netanyahu by June 30, 2026? No 66¢ 83¢ $37 $46 +$9 (+26%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in June? No 74¢ 99¢ $33 $44 +$11 (+34%)
Will Anthropic’s valuation hit (HIGH) $1.25T by June 30? No 87¢ 98¢ $31 $34 +$4 (+13%)
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? No 18¢ 16¢ $37 $34 −$3 (-7%)
GPT-5.6 released by June 30, 2026? Yes 9¢ 13¢ $20 $29 +$9 (+42%)
Weed rescheduled by December 31? Yes 26¢ 26¢ $28 $28 +$0 (+1%)
Will Trump and Putin not meet? No 38¢ 38¢ $23 $23 +$0 (+1%)
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $810 in June? No 93¢ 99¢ $19 $20 +$1 (+6%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $80 Week of June 22 2026? No 68¢ 96¢ $9 $12 +$4 (+41%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 32 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 24? Jun 23 $54 −$11 -20%
England vs. Ghana: O/U 1.5 Jun 23 $174 +$4 +2%
England vs. Ghana: O/U 0.5 Jun 23 $149 +$46 +31%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $26 −$1 -3%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $730 on June 23? Jun 23 $118 +$32 +27%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $740 on June 23? Jun 23 $82 +$18 +22%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $735 on June 23? Jun 23 $83 −$6 -7%
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $720 in June? Jun 23 $234 +$35 +15%
Will Micron (MU) finish week of June 22 above $1,090? Jun 23 $38 +$4 +10%
Will Micron (MU) finish week of June 22 above $1,080? Jun 23 $40 −$3 -8%
Will Micron (MU) finish week of June 22 above $1,070? Jun 23 $35 −$3 -9%
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $94 +$6 +6%
Starmer out by July 31, 2026? Jun 22 $93 −$55 -60%
Starmer out by June 22, 2026? Jun 22 $508 −$72 -14%
Starmer out by June 23, 2026? Jun 22 $30 −$7 -23%
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? Jun 21 $573 −$72 -13%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? Jun 21 $681 +$39 +6%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $232 −$219 -95%
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? Jun 20 $593 +$7 +1%
Starmer out by October 31, 2026? Jun 20 $19 $0 +2%
Will Micron Q3 DRAM revenue be above $27.5B? Jun 20 $125 −$6 -5%
Starmer out by June 26, 2026? Jun 20 $50 +$12 +23%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? Jun 20 $39 +$37 +95%
Will JD Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30, 2026? Jun 19 $100 −$66 -66%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31? Jun 19 $365 +$145 +40%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by July 31? Jun 19 $213 +$39 +18%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 Week of June 15 2026? Jun 19 $17 −$17 -99%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $186 −$186 -100%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $745 on June 18? Jun 18 $66 +$44 +67%
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? Jun 18 $353 −$58 -16%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $141 −$94 -67%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $740 on June 17? Jun 17 $123 +$54 +44%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $745 on June 17? Jun 17 $300 −$189 -63%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $9 +$5 +56%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $14 −$6 -40%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $750 on June 17? Jun 17 $47 −$34 -73%
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 17? Jun 17 $76 +$6 +8%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ju Jun 17 $226 +$62 +27%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $92 −$88 -96%
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? Jun 17 $512 −$70 -14%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 17 $294 +$6 +2%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $76 on June 16? Jun 16 $0 $0 +33%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $75 on June 16? Jun 16 $372 +$85 +23%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $647 +$42 +6%
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $176 −$176 -100%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $750 on June 16? Jun 16 $310 +$77 +25%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $755 on June 16? Jun 16 $42 −$42 -99%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $760 on June 16? Jun 16 $45 −$31 -69%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 16? Jun 16 $115 +$21 +18%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 16 $245 +$155 +64%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Anthropic’s valuation hit (HIGH) $1.1T by June 30? BUY Yes 68¢ $24 2h
Will Anthropic’s valuation hit (HIGH) $1.1T by June 30? BUY Yes 68¢ $45 4h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 2¢ $8 7h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 2¢ $22 7h
Anthropic IPO before 2027? BUY No 25¢ $0 8h
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 24? SELL Up 44¢ $43 8h
Weed rescheduled by December 31? BUY Yes 26¢ $28 9h
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 24? BUY Up 54¢ $54 9h
England vs. Ghana: O/U 0.5 BUY Under 87¢ $74 9h
England vs. Ghana: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 98¢ $98 9h
England vs. Ghana: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 98¢ $69 9h
England vs. Ghana: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 98¢ $8 9h
England vs. Ghana: O/U 0.5 BUY Under 68¢ $75 9h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 6¢ $26 9h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 6¢ $3 10h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 6¢ $0 10h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 6¢ $3 10h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 6¢ $3 10h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 10h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 10h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 10h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 6¢ $14 10h
Anthropic IPO before 2027? BUY No 25¢ $0 11h
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $735 on June 23? SELL Yes 4¢ $1 11h
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $735 on June 23? SELL Yes 27¢ $12 11h
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 18¢ $1 11h
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $735 on June 23? BUY Yes 38¢ $10 12h
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $735 on June 23? BUY Yes 38¢ $2 12h
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $735 on June 23? BUY Yes 38¢ $12 12h
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 18¢ $6 12h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3,085.21 · official $3,085.25 (match) · 3500 history records