Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T03:19:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
56 0x566c…8067 other 37 markets active 0h ago coverage 112d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$669 (+18%) realized +$621 · open +$48
Gross ROI / mkt +8% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -2% what you keep after slip
Net edge-2%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate57%17W / 13L
Drawdown27%max
Avg bet$98per market
Trades / day0.9pace
Kalshi-fit54%portable
Net worth$469now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$485
7 days+$571
14 days+$571
30 days+$571
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 53% +$569
world 21% +$78
politics 18% +$36
weather 3% +$35
economics 3% +$60
crypto 1% −$40
culture 1% −$40
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-1.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 +40.3% +26.9% 80% 80% +30.5%
≤30d 10 +40.3% +26.9% 80% 80% +30.5%
≤90d 21 +26.0% +14.0% 67% 62% +24.0%
all 30 +8.4% -1.9% 57% 47% +9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -1.9% 47% +9.4%
10% -11.3% 37% -1.0%
15% -19.9% 33% -10.6%
20% -27.7% 27% -19.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 36% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +37% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
18% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +8% · $-wt +21% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -19% → late +36% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$66 vs −$36 · ×1.83 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.39 per $1 lost it wins $2.39
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

112d coverage
Net worth$469
Realized+$621
Unrealized+$48
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses17 / 13
Open positions4
Markets (closed)30 / 37
History coverage112d
Avg bet$98
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown27%
Kalshi-fit54%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 30 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Yes 52¢ 64¢ $200 $245 +$45 (+22%)
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Yes 50¢ 52¢ $100 $103 +$3 (+3%)
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Yes 52¢ 53¢ $100 $102 +$2 (+2%)
Will Japan win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 21¢ 20¢ $21 $19 −$1 (-7%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $244 −$244 -100%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $245 +$253 +103%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $170 +$148 +87%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $100 +$132 +132%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22? Jun 24 $17 −$17 -100%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $203 +$113 +56%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $188 +$100 +53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 23 $2 $0 +21%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $51 +$52 +103%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $71 +$34 +48%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 18°C on April 15? Apr 15 $30 −$30 -99%
Will Juan Pablo Velasco win the 2026 Santa Cruz gubernatorial election Apr 14 $73 +$18 +25%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C or higher on April 14? Apr 14 $30 +$96 +321%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 23°C on April 13? Apr 13 $20 −$18 -91%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C or higher on April 13? Apr 13 $27 −$7 -24%
Will the Communist Party of India (Marxist) (CPI(M)) win the most seat Apr 11 $100 +$60 +60%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on April 11? Apr 11 $6 −$3 -45%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on April 11? Apr 11 $5 −$3 -67%
US forces enter Iran by April 30? Apr 04 $100 +$43 +43%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 29 $181 +$32 +18%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 28 $200 +$5 +2%
Will Leonardo DiCaprio win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards? Mar 18 $40 −$40 -100%
Will Ethan Hawke win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards? Mar 18 $40 −$40 -100%
Will Paloma Valencia win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Mar 15 $95 −$11 -11%
Will CDU win the most seats in the 2026 Rhineland-Palatinate parliamen Mar 12 $100 −$5 -5%
Will PH win the most seats in the 2026 Colombian Chamber of Representa Mar 10 $86 +$14 +17%
Will MrBeast's million-dollar puzzle be solved by March 15? Mar 09 $50 −$50 -100%
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Mar 06 $82 +$4 +5%
Will India win the 2026 ICC Men’s T20 World Cup? Mar 05 $50 $0 -0%
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran? Mar 05 $499 +$13 +3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 100¢ $497 25m
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 10¢ $10 53m
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 44¢ $18 1h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 43¢ $20 1h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 37¢ $20 1h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 41¢ $20 1h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 45¢ $20 1h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 46¢ $18 1h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 48¢ $20 1h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 48¢ $20 1h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 46¢ $20 1h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 49¢ $20 1h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 46¢ $25 1h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 49¢ $25 1h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 45¢ $25 2h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 49¢ $23 2h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 51¢ $78 2h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 100¢ $318 3h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 47¢ $41 4h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 51¢ $28 4h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 56¢ $51 4h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 56¢ $51 5h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 54¢ $101 6h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 94¢ $108 6h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 91¢ $123 7h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 39¢ $100 8h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? AND Will United States win on 2026-06-2 BUY $10 19h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 51¢ $101 23h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 100¢ $316 23h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 59¢ $4 24h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $469.24 · official $474.24 · 127 history records