Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T01:35:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
56 0x566c…3d03 other 91 markets active 0h ago coverage 22d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! high turnover
Total PnL +$56 (+2%) realized +$124 · open −$68
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -4% what you keep after slip
Net edge-4%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate61%43W / 27L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$30per market
Trades / day9.9pace
Fees−$12est.
Kalshi-fit59%portable
Net worth$459now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$10
7 days+$103
14 days+$247
30 days−$51
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 49% −$205
sports 35% +$82
world 11% +$12
politics 2% −$1
crypto 2% −$4
finance 1% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)+3.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 28 +50.9% +36.5% 61% 36% +2.0%
≤30d 70 +14.4% +3.5% 61% 39% -11.3%
≤90d 70 +14.4% +3.5% 61% 39% -11.3%
all 70 +14.4% +3.5% 61% 39% -11.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +3.5% 39% -11.3%
10% -6.4% 24% -19.8%
15% -15.4% 16% -27.6%
20% -23.7% 16% -34.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 36% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
37% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +14% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -21% → late +50% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$15 vs −$26 · ×0.58 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.93 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

22d coverage
Net worth$459
Realized+$124
Unrealized−$68
Win rate (resolved)61%
Wins / losses43 / 27
Est. fees paid−$12
Open positions20
Markets (closed)70 / 91
History coverage22d
Avg bet$30
Trades / day9.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit59%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 20 History 70 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? No 53¢ 55¢ $109 $112 +$3 (+3%)
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? No 96¢ 96¢ $68 $68 −$0 (-0%)
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score Yes 55¢ 32¢ $109 $64 −$46 (-42%)
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? Yes 83¢ 80¢ $34 $33 −$1 (-3%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 98¢ 98¢ $29 $29 −$0 (-0%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? No 79¢ 86¢ $25 $27 +$2 (+8%)
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? No 88¢ 86¢ $22 $22 −$0 (-2%)
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $80 in June? No 83¢ 97¢ $18 $22 +$3 (+17%)
Iran leadership change by June 30? No 97¢ 99¢ $18 $18 +$0 (+1%)
Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Yes 38¢ 38¢ $19 $18 −$0 (-2%)
Will Silver (SI) settle at $60-$70 in June? Yes 58¢ 62¢ $11 $12 +$1 (+7%)
Masoud Pezeshkian out by June 30? No 98¢ 99¢ $9 $9 +$0 (+0%)
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? No 98¢ 100¢ $7 $7 +$0 (+2%)
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $80 by end of June? No 85¢ 96¢ $4 $5 +$1 (+13%)
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? No 92¢ 93¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+1%)
Will Israel launch a ground operation in Iran by June 30, 2026? No 98¢ 98¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+1%)
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? Yes 92¢ 74¢ $3 $2 −$1 (-20%)
Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5) Philadelphia Phillies 32¢ 0¢ $30 $0 −$30 (-98%)
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $770 in June? Yes 37¢ 12¢ $1 $0 −$0 (-66%)
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $790 in June? Yes 5¢ 1¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-76%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 19 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $92 −$90 -98%
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $730 Week of June 15 2026? Jun 18 $1 $0 +17%
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $765 Week of June 15 2026? Jun 18 $13 −$1 -8%
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $735 Week of June 15 2026? Jun 18 $2 +$1 +56%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $135 −$133 -98%
Will the US-Iran deal be physically signed by June 19, 2026? Jun 18 $17 $0 +1%
Luis Díaz: 1+ goals Jun 18 $46 +$64 +140%
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) Jun 18 $72 +$75 +105%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $11 +$119 +1116%
Will Trump physically sign US x Iran deal? Jun 18 $55 +$1 +2%
Exact Score: Ghana 0 - 1 Panama? Jun 17 $17 −$16 -98%
Exact Score: Ghana 0 - 2 Panama? Jun 17 $18 −$18 -97%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $57 −$55 -98%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $53 −$5 -10%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $65 +$69 +105%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $75 on June 17? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -87%
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 1 Algeria? Jun 17 $22 −$21 -97%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 2 Algeria? Jun 17 $21 −$20 -97%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $84 on June 16? Jun 16 $1 $0 +2%
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals Jun 16 $10 +$10 +101%
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $760 Week of June 15 2026? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15? Jun 16 $14 $0 +3%
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 16 $21 +$1 +3%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? Jun 16 $20 $0 +0%
Exact Score: Belgium 1 - 1 Egypt? Jun 15 $18 +$116 +637%
Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (HIGH) $3.40 in June? Jun 15 $2 $0 +4%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? Jun 15 $17 +$4 +21%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 15 $15 +$4 +30%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 8.5 Jun 11 $38 +$36 +93%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 5.5 Jun 11 $63 +$53 +85%
Victor Wembanyama: Points O/U 26.5 Jun 09 $20 +$12 +57%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-06? Jun 07 $103 +$11 +11%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $65 +$13 +20%
Perugia: Henrique Rocha vs Remy Bertola Jun 05 $32 +$7 +22%
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Alexander Zverev Jun 05 $30 +$10 +32%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-04? Jun 05 $33 −$1 -2%
Will Mexico vs. Serbia end in a draw? Jun 05 $29 +$4 +13%
Will Serbia win on 2026-06-04? Jun 05 $1 $0 +11%
Will Greece win on 2026-06-04? Jun 04 $18 +$4 +24%
Will Slovenia win on 2026-06-04? Jun 04 $13 $0 +2%
Will Sweden vs. Greece end in a draw? Jun 04 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-04? Jun 04 $26 −$26 -98%
Will Northern Ireland vs. Guinea end in a draw? Jun 04 $31 −$30 -97%
Will Northern Ireland win on 2026-06-04? Jun 04 $31 −$30 -97%
Will Cambodia win on 2026-06-04? Jun 04 $4 $0 +10%
Will Poland win on 2026-06-03? Jun 03 $52 +$5 +9%
Will Netherlands vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 03 $23 +$2 +8%
Will Italy win on 2026-06-03? Jun 03 $42 +$6 +14%
Will Luxembourg vs. Italy end in a draw? Jun 03 $42 +$4 +9%
Will Nigeria win on 2026-06-03? Jun 03 $15 −$11 -75%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $2 16m
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $6 38m
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 53¢ $111 1h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 55¢ $111 1h
Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5) BUY Philadelphia Phillies 33¢ $17 2h
Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5) BUY Philadelphia Phillies 32¢ $13 2h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 8¢ $11 3h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 22¢ $81 3h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 38¢ $135 6h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $12 7h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $3 8h
Will Silver (SI) settle at $60-$70 in June? BUY Yes 64¢ $3 11h
Will Silver (SI) settle at $60-$70 in June? BUY Yes 57¢ $9 11h
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) BUY Colombia 48¢ $72 23h
Luis Díaz: 1+ goals BUY Yes 41¢ $46 24h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $2 24h
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $80 by end of June? SELL No 89¢ $28 24h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 8¢ $9 24h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 8¢ $1 24h
Will the US-Iran deal be physically signed by June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 99¢ $12 25h
Will the US-Iran deal be physically signed by June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 100¢ $5 25h
Will Trump physically sign US x Iran deal? BUY Yes 100¢ $8 25h
Will Trump physically sign US x Iran deal? BUY Yes 100¢ $6 25h
Will Trump physically sign US x Iran deal? BUY Yes 100¢ $12 25h
Will Trump physically sign US x Iran deal? BUY Yes 99¢ $5 26h
Will Trump physically sign US x Iran deal? BUY Yes 99¢ $9 26h
Will Trump physically sign US x Iran deal? BUY Yes 92¢ $4 26h
Exact Score: Ghana 0 - 1 Panama? BUY Yes 13¢ $17 26h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 30¢ $57 26h
Exact Score: Ghana 0 - 2 Panama? BUY Yes 9¢ $18 26h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $458.97 · official $467.81 · 275 history records